Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1218 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled just to the south will lift back north late
today and tonight. High pressure will continue offshore over the
weekend with continued very warm temperatures. A cold front
will move through the area Sunday night into early Monday,
followed by high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system
will impact the area late Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1215 PM Friday...The low clouds have eroded rapidly for
all but far N and near water. Temps rising quickly with sunshine
and expect sct to bkn Cu rest of the aftn...will keep some patchy
fog near cst per high res models. No signif change to temps
with 75 to 80 south and low/mid 60 NE cst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Southerly flow will prevail across
Eastern NC as the Atlantic surface high regains control of the
weather pattern across NC. Guidance continues to indicate low
clouds and fog developing after midnight as the low levels once
again become saturated. The models are in very good agreement
that showers developing over the Gulfstream could eventually
move inland and affect areas east of Highway 17 so have included
a 20-30% PoP. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 AM Friday...A record-breaking warm weekend will be
following by a high threat of showers Sunday night into Monday
night. High pressure will rebuild over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday before another system brings a threat of rain by
Wednesday night.

Saturday and Sunday...Deep moisture will increase from the south
and west and precipitable waters approach 1.5 inches ahead of
slow-moving frontal system over the weekend as upper level ridge
gradually weakens offshore. This will lead to a slight chance
of showers for Saturday with a slightly better chance PoP for
Sunday. The big story for the weekend will be the warm southwest
flow leading to more record-breaking warm temperatures. Sunday
looks especially warm as some inland locations could reach the
mid 80s.

Sunday Night through Monday Night...Latest GFS and ECMWF
continue the wet trend for Sunday night and especially Monday,
when the coverage of showers should be the greatest. Some timing
difference with the ECMWF a bit slower, but have raised PoPs to
likely for Monday, following high chance PoPs for Sunday night.
The rain should clear out Monday night, a bit later on the
ECMWF. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday behind the cold
front with highs generally in the low/mid 60s with some upper
50s on the northern Outer Banks. These readings are still about
8-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry high pressure will build behind the
exiting system Tuesday into Wednesday. The airmass behind the
front is not overly cold and more of Pacific origin. As a
result, highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight
lows in the 40s.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...A strong area of low pressure
will move from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley
pulling a warm front north across eastern NC Wednesday night,
followed by a decent cold front later on Thursday. This will
lead to a high chance of showers for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Sat/...
As of 1215 PM Friday...Conditions rapidly becoming VFR over taf
sites as low clouds lift and sct out. Mainly VFR thru the
evening with poss a brief MVFR cigs next cpl hrs. Overnight bulk
of guidance again indicates some fog/st forming. With low lvl
flow becoming SW not sure if fog will be as widespread but for
now will show IFR late tonight. Whatever fog/stratus forms
tonight will erode quickly Sat morn with enhanced mixing in
well defined warm sector leading to VFR mid/late morn thru
aftn.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...Some periods of sub-VFR conditions,
likely MVFR, are expected Sunday into Monday as an approaching
frontal system will bring more numerous showers, especially
behind the cold front on Monday. Skies should clear late Monday
night with dry high pressure and VFR conditions for Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1215 PM Friday...Fog has lifted signif so allowed DFA to
end...still will see some patchy fog rest of the day given
limited mixing. Waves cont between 5 and 6 ft nrn tier...with
light winds think shld subside slightly rest of day averaging
out around 5 feet so not planning on issuing a SCA but will
cont to monitor.

Prev disc...The backdoor cold front is expected push through
all the waters shortly after 12Z today causing the flow to
briefly become NE 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through early this
morning. The flow is then expected to become light and variable
late morning into late afternoon as a bubble high builds over
the waters. Winds are then gradually forecast to become S/SW 10
kt late today, increasing to 10 to 15 kt tonight as the front
moves north of the waters. Seas will continue 2 to 4 ft through
tonight. Areas of fog with visibilities below 1 NM will occur
through mid morning and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued all waters to account for these conditions.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...With high pressure offshore, winds on
Saturday should be SW at 5-15 knots with seas of 2-4 feet
Saturday, building to 3-5 feet Saturday night. A 24-hour window
of Small Craft Advisory are likely Sunday morning into Monday
morning with SW winds of 15-25 knots south of Oregon Inlet with
seas as high as 6-7 feet per the latest SWAN/NWPS model. Winds
veer to N/NE behind the cold front Monday and will run 10-20
knots before diminishing on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 02/24 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         84/1962     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    76/2017     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/1985     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    77/1996     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          84/1930     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     86/1982     (KNCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 02/25 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         80/2017     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    74/2017     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       81/2017     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    76/2017     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          84/1930     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     78/2017     (KNCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/JME/CTC
CLIMATE...MHX



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