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137
FXUS62 KMHX 171205
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
705 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary to the south will lift back to the coast this
afternoon and tonight. A cold front will pass through from the
northwest Monday, becoming stationary along the gulf coast. The
front will shift back and forth several times during the week,
resulting in an unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 7 am Sun...No changes to zones. High pressure will
continue to ridge in from the northeast through mid-morning
before retreating back to the north. The stationary boundary to
the south will begin to lift back toward the coast as flow
becomes southerly ahead of a broad upper trof and surface cold
front approaching from the west. Dry conditions expected through
early afternoon in slightly drier atmosphere. However, RH
deepens once again this afternoon and isentropic lift develops,
especially inland. Made only minor adjustments to PoPs for this
afternoon, capping at 40% along the coastal plain, with only
slight chance southern OBX. Temps this afternoon will rise into
the upper 40s across the northern tier to mid 50s southern Outer
Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 340 am Sun...Frontal boundary will lift to the coast this
evening. Omega and isentropic lift increase further tonight,
with PWATs increasing from around 1.30" this evening to around
1.65" by 12Z Monday. PoPs increase to categorical northern
coastal plain, with likelys extending northeast through the
middle of the forecast area to chance along the south coast and
southern Outer Banks. Temperatures tonight will remain steady
across the far northwest, but rise slowly elsewhere as flow
veers from ESE this evening to SW by 12Z Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday... Unsettled weather expected through the
period, as numerous frontal systems and shortwaves impact the
region.

Monday through Tuesday...A persistent southwesterly flow at the
mid to upper levels will continue to pull significant Gulf
moisture through Monday morning as the associated cold front
from the departed low pressure system starts pushing through the
area. Once the front pushes through rain showers will taper off
from west to east Monday afternoon/evening. High pressure will
build in from the north Monday night into Tuesday, allowing for
drier and cooler air to filter and providing a break from the
rain. Continued the mention of chance through Monday afternoon.
Temperatures on Monday will rise into the the upper 50s to lower
60s, then dropping into upper 30s to lower 40s Monday night.
Then Tuesday will be cooler than Monday, expect highs in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

Tuesday night through Saturday...As a deep mid-level trough
lingers in the Southwestern United States, a moist SW upper
level flow will remain in place over the Southeast. With a
stalled frontal boundary nearby, several waves of low pressure
will ride along this front providing high chance of
precipitation for most of mid to late next week. A weak
shortwave moving up the coast, combined with coastal
front/inverted trough develops off the NC coast as the high
pressure to the north slides off the New England coast will lead
to rain chances for late Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
highest QPF and best rain support continua to be over our
northern counties. Overall storm total rainfall from Monday
night through Friday looks to be in the one-half to one inch
range with possible isolated higher amounts. Models continue to
show a cold front push through the area late in the week, but
timing continues to be uncertain. The latest GFS (17/00z) has
the front pushing through Thursday night, while 17/00z ECMWF as
the front pushed through Friday morning. Regardless, on the
timing of the passing of the front, this will continue to
enhance rain showers through Saturday as the frontal boundary
will remain near the forecast area. Temps look mild with highs
in the 50s to 60s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s, except
for Tuesday night as temp will drop into the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Mon/...
As of 7 am Sun...Presently VFR at the 4 terminals. High
pressure has built in from the northeast temporarily and will
continue into this morning. The high will weaken and move
northeast this afternoon as a frontal boundary to the south
begins lifting back north toward the coast. Expecting MVFR
conditions to redevelop today as the front approaches the coast,
lowering further to IFR this evening as boundary lifts further
north into the area. Dry weather forecast through early
afternoon, then patches of light rain develop this afternoon,
becoming numerous tonight especially at further inland sites PGV
and ISO. Light winds through the period less than 10 knots,
veering from northeast this morning to southeast this evening.

Long Term /06Z Mon through Thu/
As of 340 am Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions for most of the week,
except for Monday night and most of Tuesday as conditions are
expected to be VFR under a dry airmass.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 7 am Sun...Allowed SCAs to expire at 7 as seas have
subsided below 6 feet. No other changes. High pressure
temporarily extending in from the northeast this morning will
move back north today, while a frontal boundary to the south
lifts back to the coast by this evening. Flow will veer from
north this morning, to southeast this evening and further to
southwest late tonight. Winds will decrease from 10-15 knots
this morning to 5-10 knots this afternoon. Tonight, winds will
begin increasing again, from 10-15 knots to 15-20 knots. Current
SCAs will expire early this morning as flow becomes light
allowing seas to subside.

Long Term /Mon through Thu/
As of 340 am Sunday...A cold front is expected to push through
the coastal water Monday afternoon, but the latest hi-res models
are indicating a brief moment of possible SCA conditions ahead
of the front, especially over the central to southern waters.
Then winds will diminish Monday afternoon becoming NW 10-15
knots, before the NE surge of 15-20 kt Monday night into Tuesday
with seas 3-6 ft. Variable winds 10-20 kt Wed as a frontal
boundary lingers over the waters and area of low pressure
develops along the coast with seas building 4-6 ft. Thursday,
winds become SW 10-15 knots with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft. A
periods of SCA conditions will be possible Mon night through
Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/BM
MARINE...HSA/BM