Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 211420
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1020 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong cool high pressure will build south down the Atlantic
Seaboard today and linger through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1015 AM Mon...No changes to the prev disc.

Prev disc...Upper trough just off the eastern seaboard
continues to slowly dig into the open Atlantic, allowing for
broad upper ridging to establish itself over the eastern half of
the CONUS and keeping TC Beta pinned over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, a strong 1036 mb high was analyzed over
southern Quebec ridging into the southeastern states.

Stratocumulus deck continues to stream onshore from the NE this
morning with KMHX radar picking up very short-lived showers.
This precipitation has been struggling all night given very dry
air in the sub-cloud layer and aloft (the 06z sounding showed a
PWAT of 0.56"). Hi-res guidance suggests this activity will
continue through sunrise and kept an isolated mention in the
grids until then.

Otherwise an unseasonably cool day is expected today with highs
struggling to reach 70 in most spots except coastal locales.
Stratocumulus will continue through the day especially for the
Tidewater and OBX under a strong 850-900 mb inversion but with
very dry sub- cloud conditions no precipitation is forecast. It
will again be quite breezy thanks to the tight pressure gradient
between the Canadian high and Hurricane Teddy. Gusts up to 40
mph are not out of the question for OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 405 AM Mon...Hurricane Teddy will be picked up by the
aforementioned trough tonight and quickly lifted towards Nova
Scotia overnight. This will allow for the surface high to
gradually slide south and reestablish itself over the eastern
CONUS. Therefore winds will be be weakening through the evening
but won`t quite decouple. Lows fall into the upper 40s inland
with lighter winds and clear skies, with mid to upper 50s Inner
Banks and 60+ along the coast where winds remain elevated and
persistent stratocumulus lingers overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Majority of the long term period will be
characterized by persistent upper level ridging and broad
surface high pressure dominating the eastern half of the CONUS,
keeping conditions over eastern NC seasonable and dry.
Uncertainty remains late week regarding whether moisture from TC
Beta makes it up to our area.

Tuesday through Thursday...N/NE winds will persist through
Tuesday as Hurricane Teddy is picked up by a shortwave diving
out of the Great Lakes and slung towards Atlantic Canada while
high pressure remains over the area. The high will drift off of
the coast mid week which will result in backing winds to the
west/southwest. Temperatures will remain below normal Tue. More
seasonable highs return mid week due to the backed low level
flow.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast becomes more uncertain late
week as Tropical Cyclone Beta is forecast to meander along the
western Gulf Coast through midweek before gradually lifting
inland as the subtropical high shifts east. Moisture from this
system is forecast to stream northeast into the Carolinas
possibly as early as Thu night, remaining over the region
through the weekend. This will result in a chance for
showers/possible thunderstorms this period though the models are
not generating heavy QPF amounts at this time suggesting
coverage will be limited and intensity light to moderate. More
significant rainfall will be possible as a cold front moves
through the area early next week. Therefore, will keep PoPs in
the slght chance/chance range.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 650 AM Mon...VFR conditions continue to prevail over the
terminals this morning with strong high pressure ridging in from
the north. Scattered strato-cu has expanded westward as
expected but decks have stayed at VFR levels all morning. High
confidence in VFR conditions through the rest of the day with
strong NE winds with gusts to 20-25 kt likely. This could pose
crosswind issues at EWN. Winds weaken again tonight with
stratocu persisting overnight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Strong high pressure will reside over the
eastern CONUS through Thursday, keeping VFR conditions and dry
weather in place. Isolated showers will be possible on Fri. The
gradient relaxes Tue, with winds around 10 knots for the
remainder of the period and backing to the W/SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 415 AM Mon...The worst boating conditions of the event so
far will occur today with gale force NE winds continuing between
strong Canadian high pressure and Hurricane Teddy several
hundred miles offshore. Teddy will eventually cross our latitude
around midday and increase speed as it races towards Nova
Scotia, allowing for the surface high to slide south and
relaxing the gradient into Tuesday morning. Gale conditions come
to an end late tonight but SCA conditions will continue into
Tuesday for all but the Neuse/Pamlico rivers.

Buoys show strong and powerful swell over the coastal waters
this morning with seas of 10-15 feet for most waters, with a
predominant period of 15-17 seconds thanks to Hurricane Teddy.
Seas are expected to peak this morning before slowly falling
overnight, although remaining at a dangerous 10+ feet north of
Cape Lookout, 7-12 feet south.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Dangerous boating conditions will continue
through mid week with prolonged period of strong NNE winds
persisting into Tuesday. Expected speeds 20 to 25 kts with gusts
30 kts early Tue with speeds slowly diminishing late Tue. Seas
will continue 10-15 ft, highest north of Hatteras. Though NW/W
winds will diminish to 5-15 kt Wed, dangerous seas 10-15 kt will
continue, again highest north of Hatteras. Seas will finally
begin to quickly subside Wed night and should fall below 6 ft
Thu morning. Winds Thu will be W/SW 10 kt or less with 3-5 ft
seas becoming light and variable Fri with 2-3 ft seas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 AM Mon...Significant ocean overwash occurred once
again on Sunday, mainly across the Outer Banks south of Oregon
Inlet. Portions of NC12 were forced to close on Hatteras and
Ocracoke Islands due to the inundation of water and sand, and
the significant dune erosion that occurred will exacerbate
overwash issues for the next few high tides.

The greatest threat for significant overwash and potential
inundation will continue for Dare County beaches during the high
tide cycles, with the midday Monday high tide expected to bring
the most extensive impacts. Flooding conditions will be
worsened by large and powerful breaking wave run up from strong
swell produced by Hurricane Teddy over the Western Atlantic,
coupled with compromised dune structures. Flooding and overwash
threat will continue through Tuesday.

The long duration, and strong NE winds are also expected to
continue producing soundside impacts along the southern Pamlico
Sound, Neuse and Pamlico rivers, as well as minor oceanside
flooding or overwash on Ocracoke Island and Core Banks. Elevated
water levels will combine with higher than average astronomical
tides to produce minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding
across these areas, with inundation of 1 to 3 feet possible.
Coastal flooding threat will continue into Tuesday for areas
along the Neuse River and Ocracoke/Core Banks into Tuesday
afternoon with subsequent high tides.

Coastal Flood Warning continues for Hatteras Island and the
Northern Outer Banks. The Coastal Flood Advisory was extended
for areas along the Neuse River, Ocracoke Island, the Core
Banks, and the Crystal Coast into Tuesday afternoon with minor
flooding forecast tomorrow. The Advisory holds for Tyrrell
County and areas along the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers. The High
Surf Advisory was extended for all beaches north of Cape
Lookout. Guidance keeps higher waves well into Wednesday
evening as the longer period swell fill ins through this morning,
increasing the frequency of large wave sets along Crystal Coast
and Onlsow County beaches.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ094-
     194>196-199-204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203-
     205.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ046-
     080.
     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ196-204.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/ML
SHORT TERM...MS/ML
LONG TERM...JME/MS
AVIATION...JME/MS
MARINE...JME/MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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