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506
FXUS62 KMHX 200250
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1050 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest through Friday
and continue north of the area through the weekend. Slow moving
low pressure will impact the area early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 PM Thursday...minor update for hourly temp and dew
point trends with continued CAA behind front. Some SCU lingering
over southern coastal sections but will move offshore shortly.
Also increased winds along coast for stronger surge of
northerly winds per observations upstream over Chesapeake Bay.

/Previous discussion/

As of 230 PM Thursday...The cold front has crossed NW tier and
will push thru rest of the region next cpl hours. Band of sct to
bkn CU assoc with front will push E across the area thru late
aftn and may produce a few sprinkles near coast where a few
mdls show some very light qpf. Gusty SW to NW winds expected to
cont into the evening then shld subside inland as mixing
diminishes...winds will remain gusty along the coast thru the
night. With mainly clear skies overnight and diminishing winds
could see some inland spots drop into the upr 30s late...however
not expecting frost given marginal temps and decent temp/dewpt
spread limiting dew/frost formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...High pres will cont to build in from
the NW with sunny skies expected as atms will remain very dry.
Thicknesses support highs about 10 dgr below normal with
low/mid 50s NE coast to low/mid 60s SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thurs...

Friday night through Sunday... Sfc high will build into the
region from the northwest Friday night through Sunday. While to
the west, an mid/upper level low will move across the Southern
Plains/Lower MS Valley, while at the sfc an area of low pressure
develops over the Gulf States. Expect mostly sunny with cool
temperatures through Saturday, then Sunday an increase of clouds
ahead of the low pressure system. Expect highs in the 60s with
temperatures increasing 3-4 degree each day. Friday night will
be a chilly night for this time of year, expect overnight lows
around 40 degrees inland to mid/upper 40s along the Outer Banks.
Saturday night, expect lows in the low/mid 40s inland and
mid/upper 40s coast, then Sunday night, lows in the mid/upper
40s inland to low/mid 50s coast.

Monday through Wednesday... The 00z models have a general consensus
with the sfc low developing over the Gulf States and lifting towards
the Carolinas Tues/Wed., but aloft the models don`t have a good
handle with the upper level cut-off low. Therefore, uncertainty
remains with the timing of the sfc low and strength/track of cut-off
low aloft. With the models in agreement with timing of the precip,
have decreased PoPs slightly Monday, but kept 30-50% PoPs Tues/Wed.
The warming trends continues through Wednesday with highs in the
upper 60s/low 70s inland and low/mid 60s Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Saturday/...
As of 1030 PM Thursday...Updated for surge of stronger northerly
winds moving south over northern and central waters next 3-6
hours with 1-2 hour period of gale force gusts likely per obs
over Chesapeake Bay. SCA already in place all waters but will
issue MWS to indicate gusts up to 40 KT possible for brief
period.

Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...VFR conditions will dominate the TAF
period. High pressure will build in from the north Friday night
through Sunday. An increase of high to mid clouds will filter
into the region, ahead of a low pressure system coming from the
Gulf States.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Fri/...
As of 840 PM Thursday...updated to drop SCA for inland rivers.

/Previous discussion/

As of 230 PM Thursday...Cold front crossing nrn tier will cont
to push offshore rest of the aftn. Gusty SW winds ahead of front
will quickly shift to the NW in its wake. May be a bit of a lull
twrd early evening then will increase again mid/late evening
thru much of the night. As high pres builds in from the NW Fri
the N winds will grad subside from 15 to 25 kts to less than 15
kts late.

Seas will cont at 6 to 9 ft this aftn then slowly diminish to 4
to 6 feet overnight. On Fri seas will subside further to 1 to 3
feet S and 2 to 4 feet central and N.

Long Term /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Northerly winds 5-15 knots will continue
Friday night through Saturday, then winds will slowly veer to
the NE/E Saturday night through Sunday as the high pressure
gradually shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind gradient will
tighten Monday as a low pressure system approaches the region
from the Gulf States, expect winds to become ENE 10-20 knots.
Seas will generally be around 2-3 ft through Monday morning,
then seas will gradually build 3-5 ft throughout Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JBM/BM
MARINE...RF/JBM/BM