Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230020
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
820 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will slide offshore tonight and
Tuesday. A dry cold front will cross Tuesday night with high
pressure building in from the northwest late in the week. A
Nor`Easter will develop off the southeast coast on Friday, and
travel up the eastern seaboard this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Mon...Latest sfc analysis shows 1026mb high pressure
centered off the NC coast ridging into the Carolinas this
evening. High pressure will continue to slide offshore tonight,
with low level flow becoming more SW. Good radiational cooling
conditions with light winds and just a few high clouds and temps
are already falling quickly into the 40s away from the immediate
coast this evening with 50s along the coast. Bumped temps down a
few degrees overnight based on trends and coolest guidance.
Temps still expected to be a few degrees warmer than last night,
with some increasing higher based clouds across the southern
half of the area late tonight and early Tue. Lows dropping
around 40 inland to upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Mon...Surface high will continue to slide offshore
and upper flow becomes more zonal, resulting in another pleasant
day across Eastern NC. Slightly more cloud cover than previous
days, especially across the southern half of the area. Low
level thickness values and WSW flow support warmer temps with
highs in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM Mon...Below average temperatures are expected for
most of the week. Dry weather is expected through Thursday, and
then chances for rain increase Friday and into the weekend, as
a potential Nor`Easter moves up the eastern seaboard.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Some increase in moisture
occurs ahead of an approaching cold front, especially along the
coast, but there is not enough forcing and convergence to
support precipitation development and we are still expecting a
dry cold frontal passage Wednesday morning. Following the front,
another round of strong CAA will occur. Latest model trends
show a deeper trough passing to the north, which will bring in
colder 850 mb temps both Wednesday and Thursday. Also high
pressure building in from the west both Wednesday and Thursday
will become oriented so that brisk northerly winds remain across
the area. So, max temps will only reach the low to mid 60s Wed,
and then only the mid to upper 50s on Thursday. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings will reach the low to mid 40s inland, and
the upper 40s to low 50s near the coast (mid to upper 50s for
OBX). Thursday morning is expected to be colder, with lows
dropping into the upper 30s well inland, and then into the low
40s fairly close to the coast (still low 50s along immediate
shoreline).

Friday through Sunday...Models continue in decent agreement
regarding a developing Nor`Easter Friday night into the weekend.
Phasing shortwaves initially will lead to strengthening low
pressure in the northern Gulf Thu/Fri, then the mid level trough
takes on a negative tilt during the weekend leading to a
northward moving coastal low in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The
low pressure system is expected to hug the NC shoreline as it
deepens and travels up the east coast. Models still vary greatly
on the intensity of the storm, but there is the potential for
strong winds, heavy rain at times, and coastal flooding. High
temps will reach the low to mid 60s Friday, and then the mid to
upper 60s Saturday, while lows will range from the upper 30s to
low 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast. It will remain
mild Sunday with a low chance of showers and continued highs in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 745 PM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Could see some patchy sub-VFR steam fog early Tue
morning along the water, mainly affecting PGV. Increasing high
based clouds late tonight and Tuesday with W to SW winds
generally less than 10 kt.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 405 AM Mon...VFR conditions will persist through the week
with mostly clear skies as high pressure remains over the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 8 PM Mon...Latest obs show variable winds less than 10 kt with
seas 2-4 ft. High pressure over the waters will gradually shift
offshore tonight and Tuesday, with flow becoming more W/SW.
Slightly stronger winds, 10-15 kt, expected across the northern
waters and Albemarle Sound region late this evening through
Tuesday with tighter gradient. Seas 2-4 ft this afternoon
subside to 1-3 ft tonight and continue into Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 405 AM Mon...A dry cold front will bring stronger
northerly winds Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will become SW-W
10-15 kts Tuesday, and then shift to the N at 15-20 kts
Wednesday through Thursday. Seas will then build to 3-5 ft
Wednesday and Thursday. Fri E winds around 10 kt will increase
to 15 to 20 kt with 2-4 ft seas building to 4-6 ft late.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/SGK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK/CQD
MARINE...SK/CQD/JME


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