Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 181107
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
707 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area today. High pressure will
build in tonight through Thursday. A trough of low pressure will dig
into the Eastern US by Friday through early next week and bring
unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 707 AM Wed...Have dec pops to slght chc bulk of area this
morning as ill-defined front continues to drop sewrd through E
NC. No other changes.

Previous discusion... As of 345 AM Wed...H2O vapor
imagery depicts broad trough swinging through the Great Lakes
region early this morning. Shortwave energy is moving through E
NC and sparking some showers and embedded thunder as region
remains in very warm and moist SW flow. Ill-defined sfc cool
front moving southeastward towards E NC from the Piedmont and
srn VA. This will keep threat for sct/numerous showers and a few
tsra in fcst this morning.

For this afternoon, convective chances will be relegated to
mainly srn zones, as global models and CAM`s in generally good
agreement with front getting hung up along the Crystal Coast as
weak sea breeze development retards further south advancement
of the front until this evening when mid level trough axis
swings through. Precip gradient will be fairly tight, with
little to no activity for northern half of the FA, to scattered
to numerous showers and some storms for the far southern zones.
Will continue the likely pops for the far south, tapering to
slght chc nrn zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Wed...Aforementioned front pushes south of the
area this evening as trough pushes through, with drier TD`s
advecting in from the north on NNE winds. Clearing skies
expected, with lows dropping back to slightly below climo, with
mid 60s far interior to low 70s coast. May have to revisit
patchy fog potential tonight with later forecast updates, as
clear skies, calm winds, and T-TD`s near 0 degrees lead to some
fog potential esp interior zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM Wednesday...High pressure will build in from the
north Thursday and Friday. Expect unsettled conditions for the
weekend into early next week with increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...The upper trough over the NE U.S.
will lift northeast into the Canadian Maritimes while another
trough digs into the upper Plains, with brief ridging between
these two features moving east through the Mid-Atlantic States
during this period. Broad high pressure at the surface will
shift from the southern Great Lakes through PA/NY and off the
southern New England coast, helping keep Thursday and Friday
morning dry for Eastern NC. Guidance remains in fairly good
agreement with a weak surface low forming along a stalled
boundary in southern SC early Friday which will lift northeast
along the coast late Friday through Friday night. By Friday
afternoon, chances for showers and thunderstorms increases for
the southern zones as the low approaches from the southwest.
Showers/storms could be aided by the sea-breeze formation in
Onslow/Carteret counties coincidnet with peak afternoon heating.
Given good agreement, have increased QPF after 18Z and through
overnight. QPF will range around 0.5 inches inland to 1 inch
along the coast/OBX, though could see higher amounts in any
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate conditions are only
marginally favorable for severe storms as PWATS build back above
2 inches and modest instability will be available, though shear
will once again be the limiting factor. Max temps will remain
in the upper 80s to near 90 deep inland, with mid 80s along the
coast. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s inland to mid
70s along the coast/OBX.

Saturday through Tuesday...The surface low mentioned above will
lift northeast of the area early Saturday morning, with deep
southerly flow developing in its wake. The upper pattern becomes
more favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms by
Saturday afternoon with deep moist flow from the GOM and
western Atlantic Ocean, deepening upper trough over the
Midwestern States, with strong shortwaves rotating around the
base of the upper trough. Best chances for severe storms will
be each afternoon coincident with peak heating. Saturday
afternoon`s potential will be linked to shortwave(s) moving
through the area aloft while the upper trough becomes negatively
tilted stretching from Wisconsin to West Virginia. Sunday
afternoon`s severe potential will be dependent upon the
proximity of the upper trough and multiple vort maxes rotating
around the trough helping provide support aloft. Guidance
continiues to indicate a prolonged period of moist southerly
flow during this period due to upper trough planted to the NW of
the area, with some areas potentially observing 3 to 5 inches of
precipitation from late Friday through Tuesday, thus cannot
rule out flooding potential despite recent dry conditions. Will
highlight severe/flood potential in HWO at this time.

Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will be close to
climatological normals, ranging from highs near 90 inland to mid
80s for the coast. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 707 AM Wed...Mainly VFR conditions for all terminals.
A drying trend should begin this afternoon as the cold front
pushes south and northerly flow behind the boundary filters
drier air into the region. Could be a shower or storm at KEWN
and KOAJ this afternoon with sea breeze nearby. May be some
light fg/br develop overnight esp for KOAJ and possibly KPGV
where calm winds and clear skies in place.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions return Thursday into
Friday, with sub-VFR conditions possible late Friday night
through Sunday as an unsettled pattern develops across Eastern
NC. A weak surface low will move through the area late Friday
through early Saturday with southerly flow developing in its
wake that will last into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 345 AM Wed...Winds are steadily veering from SW to W
early this morning as cool front approaches E NC. The front will
slowly sink southward through the day, likely pushing off the
southern coast by this evening. Have cancelled SCA for Pamlico
sound as gradient is relaxing and winds are now 10-20 kt. Seas
4-6 ft continue for the waters south of Oregon Inlet so SCA will
continue through around mid morning. NE winds all waters for
tonight though surge will not be all that strong so only
expecting 10-15 kt winds, with seas 2-4 ft.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 410 AM wednesday...High pressure north of the waters with
a front stalled well south of the Eastern NC waters will yield a
NE wind veering to SE from Thursday through Friday. Speeds will
range 5-15 kts during the period with seas 2-4 ft. A surface
low will lift northeast along the Southeastern U.S. coast late
Friday through early Saturday, with moderate SW winds 10-20 kt
developing in its wake, Saturday through early next week. Seas
will range 3-5 ft Saturday with occasional 6 ft seas for the
outer waters. Continued to undercut the stronger winds/higher
seas of the GFS-based Wavewatch guidance for the extended
forecast period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL


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