Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
000
FXUS64 KMOB 190945
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
445 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Northerly surface winds remain elevated between 5-10 mph over inland
portions of the forecast area and up to 10-15 mph with a few gusts
over 20 mph along the immediate coast early this morning given the
MSLP gradient along the building surface ridge across the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions. Temperatures have
subsequently been a little slower to drop than anticipated, though a
check of observations at 4 AM CDT indicate that temperatures have
fallen into the lower to mid 30s over interior portions of southeast
MS and southwest AL. There is still some opportunity for temps to
briefly drop to around 30 degrees over interior locations through
the early morning hours so the Freeze Warning will remain in effect
until expiration at 9 AM CDT.
An upper level trough will translate eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic today, with flow aloft over the
eastern CONUS gradually de-amplifying in the wake of this departing
feature. A dry northwesterly to zonal flow pattern will prevail
across our region through Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure
will also build over the north central Gulf Coast region through
Wednesday. A cool and dry airmass remains in place today with highs
only expected to range from around 60 degrees to the lower 60s over
most of our area. Mostly clear skies and near calm or light/variable
surface winds are anticipated tonight as the surface ridge builds
over our region. Overnight lows are expected to range in the mid 30s
over interior areas, where conditions perhaps become a little more
favorable for areas of frost to form late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Lows near the coast will be a little warmer in
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Mostly sunny skies continue on Wednesday
with temperatures trending warmer in the upper 60s to lower 70s
inland and in the mid to upper 60s along the immediate coast. A LOW
rip current risk is anticipated through midweek along area beaches.
/21
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Through the Short Term, guidance continues to advertise a shortwave
trough moving from over the Plains to over the Southeast. What has
changed is a slowing down of a now stronger upper trough moving over
the Plains/Southeast. With this change in the upper dynamics comes a
more organized surface low forming over the Texas coast, then moving
east over the northern Gulf coast(most guidance) or inland(GFS)
over the Southeast. Yesterday, guidance advertised a weakening
trough bringing a less organized surface circulation moving over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Have went with a nudge towards this change
with yesterday`s forecast, instead of making a more significant
shift. This means rain lasting longer through Friday before moving
east of the forecast area. Have also shifted north a bit any
rumbles, with more instability available closer to the northern Gulf
coast. Still, have kept mention of thunder to areas south of the
coast. Significant rain is still slow to move in Thursday, with
isentropic upglide generated rain showers moistening the airmass as
a series of shortwave impulses pass over the forecast area ahead of
the main trough. Rainfall amounts for this event will see an uptick
over most of the forecast area due to the longer period of rain,
especially to areas along and south of I-65. Still, am not expecting
any water issues, with the still progressive nature of the passing
system.
With increasing cloudiness from the passing shortwave energy along
with the rain cooling, the diurnal temperatures range will see a
decrease. High temperatures a bit below seasonal norms are expected
Thursday and Friday (upper 60s to low 70s). Low temperatures mainly
in the 40s Wednesday night rise into the 50s for Thursday night.
/16
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Upper ridging moves over the Southeast for the weekend behind the
exiting shortwave trough. Temperatures rise to a bit above seasonal
norms in response for the weekend. Another round of passing
shortwave energy approaches the Southeast early in the coming week,
with rain moving back over the forecast area Monday/Monday night
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of our marine zones
until 10 AM CDT this morning as northeasterly winds remain elevated
between 15-25 kt with higher gusts. Winds should diminish later this
morning into this afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected
during the middle part of the week. A moderate easterly flow returns
late this week. There is some uncertainty on the surface wind
pattern late this week as a potential low pressure system translates
across the northern Gulf. It still appears that winds turn northerly
following the passage of a cold front late Friday into Saturday. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 62 39 70 47 69 54 70 52 / 0 0 0 0 20 40 30 0
Pensacola 61 43 69 49 68 57 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 40 10
Destin 60 47 66 52 69 59 70 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 40 10
Evergreen 63 36 72 43 71 52 68 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 40 10
Waynesboro 62 35 71 43 68 51 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 0
Camden 61 36 71 43 70 51 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 40 10
Crestview 62 35 71 43 72 53 70 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 50 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-261-
262.
FL...None.
MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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