Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 240503

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...
VFR conditions to start the forcast may lead into MVFR and
isolated IFR conditions prior to sunrise due to patchy fog. Most
of this fog if any should be west of the Mobile River and inland.
This should be short lived as the fog will dissipate shortly after
sunrise. VFR conditions will continue there after. DJ/17


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 739 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Based on the latest radar trends and guidance, have
updated to include isolated to scattered convection for the rest
of the evening over portions of interior southwest Alabama and
interior southeast Mississippi. Will monitor for potential fog
development overnight. No other major changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...
VFR conditions expected for the majority of the forecast period. Some
residual showers along the river delta will slowly dissipate
later this evening. Overnight before sunrise patchy fog may
develop along and north of I-10 though this is short lived and
will fade well before mid morning. Expect light southeasterly
winds to persist throughout the day. DJ/17

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...A strong upper ridge will
continue to dominate the southeastern states. This will lead to
continued hot and dry conditions across the area. Patchy dense fog
and low stratus will return overnight with lows in the upper 60s
inland to low 70s along the coast. Temps will also continue to warm
on Friday with most areas in the low to mid 90s. Coastal areas will
be in the upper 80s due to the cooler nearshore waters. /13

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...A strong high
pressure system will continue to exert its influence on area
weather. Clear to mostly clear skies and unseasonable warm
temperatures are expected. Overnight low temperatures should
generally fall into the upper 60s and low 70s with mid 70s along
the immediate coast. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the
mid to upper 90s inland with a few sites possibly topping 100
degrees and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Inland areas
will likely experience heat indices approaching 100 degrees and
range as high as 105 degrees. Heat indices closer to the coast
will range from the mid to upper 90s. Please consider this if
planning any outdoor activities over the holiday weekend. Stay
hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade to avoid
overexposure to heat. /08

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...High pressure continues to
remain the primary influence over area weather but models
project some weakening as the week progresses. Temperatures will
remain unseasonably hot but some gradual moderation is forecasted
toward the latter part of the period. The ECMWF model is more
aggressive in dampening the ridge than the GFS. This solution
would allow passing shortwave troughs moving through the westerly
flow aloft to interact with the afternoon sea breeze front
producing showers and thunderstorms. Not overly confident with the
ECMWF at this time and would like to see more run to run
consistency, but have included a slight chance for thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon at this time. /08

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly wind flow will persist
through early next week as a broad surface ridge of high pressure
continues from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf. The highest
winds and seas are expected each afternoon near the coast due to the
seabreeze. A persistent swell from the south will keep offshore wave
heights slightly elevated through Saturday. /13




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