Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250005 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
605 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Mostly MVFR cigs and visibilities through about
25.06z followed by mostly IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities
through about 25.15z then mostly MVFR cigs and visibilities
through 26.00z. Winds will be south at 10 to 15 knots through
25.03z diminishing to 5 to 10 knots through 25.15z becoming
southwest 10 to 15 knots through 26.00z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...A cold front extending from
eastern Texas up onto Arkansas late this afternoon is expected to
move east toward the forecast area tonight and drop slowly southeast
across the forecast area on Sunday, roughly extending along the I-65
corridor in Alabama by the end of the day on Sunday. Look for
isolated showers to continue over western portions of the forecast
area this evening, with rain chances going up after midnight,
especially over the northwestern portions of the forecast area. As
the front settles across the region on Sunday, expect rain chances
to go up into the likely to categorical category (especially over
northern and western portions of the forecast area) by midday.
Expect precipitation to primarily be in the form of showers,
but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible
along and south of the frontal boundary. There is a marginal risk
of a few strong to briefly severe thunderstorms across the region on
Sunday, but that risk looks to be minimal. A rather weak low level
jet of 25 to 35 knots develops across the area Sunday afternoon,
with maximum MLCAPE primarily in the 300-600 J/KG range and mid
level LAPSE Rates mainly in the 5C/KM range. These parameters for
severe weather aren`t all that impressive, but with dewpoints in
the mid and upper 60s along and south of the front, a few
stronger storms could be possible. If any stronger to briefly
severe storms were to develop, the primary risk would be a
localized gusty/damaging wind threat. Cooler temperatures begin to
move in from the northwest on Sunday, with highs over northwestern
zones only in the 60s and 70s. East and south of I-65 though,
highs will still be quite warm, in the mid to upper 70s. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A cold front
will move across the area Sunday night into Monday bringing
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area. An isolated
strong or severe storm with gusty winds is possible, however no
widespread severe storms are expected. Dry conditions are expected
on Tuesday as the front stalls across the northern Gulf. Rain
chances increase again late in the day on Tuesday into Tuesday
night as high pressure shifts east and the front returns northward
as a warm front. Temps remain above normal through the period.
/13

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday as the warm
front lifts north of the area and another shortwave approaches
from the west. This shortwave will cause surface low pressure to
form across the southern plains and deepen as it moves into the
midwest on Thursday. A trailing cold front will move across the
area on Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected. A drier and cooler airmass follows in the wake of this
front for the end of the week and the weekend with temps returning
to more typical levels. /13

MARINE...A surface high stretching west over the northern Gulf
coast will continue through the early to mid part of next week, but
a cold front will move into the southeast states and stall along the
coast or maybe just offshore, bringing unsettled through the period.
Onshore flow becoming briefly offshore near the coast early next
week, but otherwise remains light to moderate onshore. Scattered to
occasionaly numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the coastal waters through midweek. Surface high pressure
passing north of the marine area and off the east Atlantic coast
through Thursday will bring a more predominately east to southeast
flow back to the marine area Wednesday and Thursday. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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