Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 210850
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...Patchy fog will dissipate by mid-
morning with mostly cloudy skies expected through the day. Moisture
levels will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front. A
line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will move
into the area late in the afternoon and move eastward across the
area through the evening hours. Instability values remain low,
generally less than 500 J/KG. However shear values values will be
more supportive of strong thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction center
has expanded the Slight Risk to cover the entire area due to the
possibility of an isolated severe storm. The main threat will be
damaging winds in bowing line segments within the line of
thunderstorms as it moves through the area. The highest chance of
seeing severe storms will likely be closer to coast where
instability levels will be higher. Highs will be in the upper 70s
and low 80s.

A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area in the wake of
the cold front tonight with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s northwest
of I-65 and mid and upper 60s to the southeast. /13

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Aside from a few
post frontal light rain showers lingering into the morning hours
east of the I-65 corridor, the short term forecast period will
stay dry. The region will remain under the influence of a
longwave trough aloft and surface high pressure ridging in from
the north. This will result in a dry weather pattern with fair
skies. Temperatures will trend cooler than climatological norms.
Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally range from
the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the
mid to upper 40s over more interior locations to upper 40s to low
50s closer to the coast and mid 50s to near 60 along the coast
Tuesday and Wednesday nights. /08

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Increasing cloud cover
spills into the area Thursday as the flow aloft backs to the
southwest in response to a rapidly deepening shortwave trough
over the southwestern states. Surface winds veer to a more
easterly direction Thursday as surface high pressure shifts east
to the Eastern Seaboard. Precipitation chances begin to rise
Thursday afternoon as a warm frontal boundary over the Gulf starts
to lift northward. Models diverge in the handling of the
deepening shortwave trough over the southwestern states and the
surface frontal system associated with it. The GFS is more
progressive with this feature, projecting a cold front pushing
through the area Friday afternoon with gradual clearing behind it.
On the other hand, the ECMWF continues to deepen the system and
occludes it with a slow moving frontal system that perhaps clips
our forecast area Saturday night while undergoing frontolysis.
This solution keeps us in a wetter pattern longer. For now, have
blended a solution between the two with Likely PoPs projected
Thursday night through Friday...decreasing to Chance Friday night
through Saturday and Slight Chance on Sunday. Trended temperatures
near to below normal for this time of year. /08

&&

.MARINE...Areas of fog will be possible this morning mainly over
inland bays and sounds. A cold front approaches from the northwest
this afternoon. Ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms can be expected mostly in the form of a line of
thunderstorms moving across the marine area this evening. As the
front sinks southward, a moderate to strong northerly flow sets up
Tuesday through Wednesday. A moderate easterly flow will develop
late Wednesday night and continue through Thursday as a broad
surface ridge of high pressure builds along the eastern seaboard. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  61  75  49  74  53  73  61 /  70  90  10   0   0  10  30  70
Pensacola   82  67  75  54  74  58  74  66 /  60  90  30   0   0  10  40  70
Destin      81  70  75  57  73  60  75  68 /  60  90  40   0   0  10  40  70
Evergreen   82  61  73  47  73  49  73  62 /  60  90  10   0   0   0  20  60
Waynesboro  77  54  70  45  70  46  70  55 /  80  70   0   0   0   0  20  60
Camden      79  57  71  46  71  48  71  58 /  70  90   0   0   0   0  20  60
Crestview   83  66  75  49  74  51  75  63 /  60  90  30   0   0   0  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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