Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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149
FXUS64 KMOB 180453 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...A surface ridge of high pressure continues to build
southward across the central Gulf Coast region in the wake of the
cold front that has pushed well south of the area into the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Northerly surface winds will bring a
drier airmass into the region overnight, with dewpoints expected
to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s over much of the area by
early Thursday morning. Overnight lows will be cooler, with
readings ranging from the mid to upper 50s over interior southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama, and in the lower to mid 60s
over most of the rest of the region. Areas of stratus will keep
skies mostly cloudy to cloudy over the western and northwestern
zones tonight, with lesser cloud coverage expected in the eastern
part of the area.

We made some minor adjustments to the hourly temperature,
dewpoint, and wind forecasts based on the latest trends, but
the ongoing package was otherwise in good shape. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A broad upper ridge of high
pressure will continue to stretch from the western Atlantic,
east of GA and FL, to the TX coast through Thu afternoon. Near the
surface high pressure centered over the north central plains will
shift southeast then east to the OH River valley and mid Atlantic
region through Thu afternoon. The weak cold front that moved off
the coast earlier today will become reinforced this evening
through early Thu afternoon as the main surface ridge to the north
shifts east. With this pattern expect gradually clearing
generally from east to west through Thu combined with a moderate
northeast wind flow near the surface. There is no chance for any
measurable rain through Thu afternoon with no fog expected through
tonight and early Thu morning.

Temperatures will be much cooler tonight compared to the last few
nights though still 3 to 5 degrees above seasonal norms. Highs Thu
will continue to be cooler though about 2 to 3 degrees above
seasonal norms. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to near 60
over northern and western sections of the forecast area and the
lower to middle 60s to east and along the coast. Highs Thu will
range from the mid to upper 70s over northern and western sections
of the forecast area and the lower 80s to the east and along the
coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A large
west-east orientated upper level high pressure system will remain
over the Gulf of Mexico, the deep south, and the western Atlantic
through Friday. The entire large upper level high pressure system
will move southward Friday night into the weekend as a strong
upper level trough digs southeast from south central Canada over
the entire eastern conus. The large 1030mb surface high pressure
system across the eastern conus will move east over the western
Atlantic as a strong cold approaches from the north late in the
week. This cold front will then move south through the forecast
area Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain-free conditions will
persist through Friday morning, followed by isolated to low-end
scattered showers and perhaps a few storms ahead of cold front
through Friday night. The best chance of rain will occur on
Saturday just ahead and along the front, with rain tapering off
from north to south Saturday evening. /22

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The large upper trough
over the eastern conus moves off into the western Atlantic through
Sunday as a dome of cool high pressure builds from the Plains into
the eastern states. Dry conditions follow for Sunday into Monday.
Low Sunday morning range from around 50 well inland to the mid
50s near the coast, and Sunday night will be even cooler with
lower 40s well inland ranging to lower 50s at the coast. Highs on
Sunday and Monday will be mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Another upper trof advances out of Canada and amplifies over the
interior eastern states on Tuesday, and an associated surface low
brings another cold front southward across the eastern states. The
surface high over the eastern states weakens and shifts off into
the western Atlantic in response, and the cold front is expected
to advance to just north of the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon. Another series of southern stream shortwaves move
across the area ahead of the approaching front, and will support a
return of slight chance pops near the coast on Monday and slight
chance to chance pops for Monday night into Tuesday. Near
seasonable temperatures are expected Monday night and Tuesday. /29

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the open gulf
waters of AL and NWFL including Mobile Bay and the MS Sound east
of Pascagoula late this evening through noon Fri. Winds at 18 to
23 knots with higher gusts can be expected in the advisory area
through noon Thu. A moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow
will develop late Thu and continue through Fri morning as high
pressure well to the north shifts east to the eastern seaboard.
Northerly winds and seas will build late Sat into Sun in response
to a stronger cold front moving across much of the northern gulf
over the weekend. Rain chances increase ahead of the front on Sat
shifting south and east of the marine area by Sat night. Small
craft advisories will be likely in the wake of the front Sat night
through early next week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632.

&&

$$

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