Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 162030
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
330 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...High pressure ridge extending
east to west across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight is
expected to get pushed into the southeastern Gulf on Tuesday as a
series of shortwaves aloft result in a deepening longwave trough
over the eastern third of the country. This pattern will allow
a surface front to sag south into central portions of Alabama and
Mississippi by the end of the day on Tuesday. This boundary and
the weak upper support will combine with the still very moist
airmass (PWAT`s will again be in excess of 2.0 inches across most
of the area) and result in another round of widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, with possibly a
little more coverage than the past several days. Locally heavy
rainfall will again be possible Tuesday as storm motion will again
be relatively slow. Some localized ponding/nuisance flooding,
will be possible, especially in those locations scattered across the
area that have received excessive rainfall over the past few
days. WPC has outlooked the entire forecast area in a marginal
chance of rainfall amounts exceeding FFG values and we will have
monitor trends. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
evening ending by mid to late evening. Temperatures continue above
normal, especially tonight. Lows overnight will range from the mid
70s inland to upper 70s and a few lower 80s at the coast. On Tuesday
widespread showers and storms will result in near normal high
temperatures around 90 degrees, but with the very moist airmass
still in place, heat indices in the 100-105 degree range can again
be expected in some rainfree locations. 12/DS


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...A broad
upper level ridge extends from the Desert Southwest eastward into
the Deep South through the short term. To its north, an upper trough
digs from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic states. The southern extent of this shortwave reaches
into interior portions of the Southeast, which will provide a
slight bump in large-scale ascent as a surface front is forced
south towards the coast. As a result, expect more widespread
thunderstorm coverage through the day Wednesday. The upper trough
moves off over the western Atlantic Wednesday night into
Thursday. Another, weaker shortwave quickly passes through the
area Thursday which could support some scattered showers and
thunderstorms during afternoon and evening hours. That said, the
better coverage should remain along the immediate coast and
offshore, along and south of the stalled front. Stronger storms
through the period will be capable of producing gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Some minor flooding issues could also arise on
Wednesday, given the greater coverage expected. High temps reach
the low 90s and lows remain in the low to mid 70s. Heat indices
reach the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon. /49


.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...As we head into the weekend,
the eastern extent of the upper ridge breaks down and an
anomalously strong area of high pressure builds over the
southwestern CONUS. The resulting pattern becomes far more
amplified than is typical this time of year as a ridge sets up
over much of the western CONUS and a deep longwave trough digs
into the eastern CONUS by Sunday. Ahead of this trough, we will
continue to see scattered diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. A surface front then pushes
southeast through the area Sunday, dropping moisture levels a bit
and pushing the best rain chances into the Gulf and east of the
area Monday. Since it`s July on the Gulf coast, you won`t notice
much difference in temperatures behind this front. Highs remain in
the low to mid 90s through the period and lows in the mid 70s.
Heat indices reach the 100 to 105 degree range each day. /49

&&

.MARINE...A high pressure ridge axis over the northeastern Gulf
today will get pushed down to the southeastern Gulf by Tuesday as a
weak surface front settles into the interior of Mississippi and
Alabama. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the marine
area just a bit during the middle part of the week with slightly
increased winds and seas, and also will bring an increase in marine
convection. This pattern will continue into late week, but winds and
seas subside somewhat as the gradient relaxes due to the front
washing out. Marine convection will also be a little less
widespread by late week. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  90  75  91  74  92  75  94 /  40  70  60  70  30  50  30  40
Pensacola   77  88  78  90  77  91  78  92 /  50  70  50  60  40  60  40  30
Destin      80  87  80  87  79  88  79  90 /  50  50  50  60  50  60  40  40
Evergreen   74  90  75  91  74  92  74  94 /  50  70  30  70  30  40  20  30
Waynesboro  73  91  73  90  72  92  73  94 /  40  70  50  60  20  40  10  40
Camden      75  91  74  91  74  92  74  93 /  50  80  40  60  20  30  10  30
Crestview   75  90  74  90  74  91  74  92 /  50  70  40  70  20  60  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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