Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 190645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
245 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Northwest flow aloft prevails between upper ridge over northern
plains and upper low over Quebec. Weak cold front from the north is
making its way across Upper Michigan this afternoon. Temps have
steadied out in the low 30s near Lk Superior but pushed into the
upper 40s again over scntrl this aftn where skies stayed mostly
sunny all day. Mid clouds are quickly increasing from the west this
aftn now though and due to these clouds and possible lower stratocu
off Lk Superior, expect most areas to be mostly cloudy by the
evening. The clouds will result in most areas seeing lows in the
teens tonight though as skies clear out farther east overnight,
could see lows fall into the single digits. Mid clouds dissippate to
from north to south on Monday but could be lingering low clouds due
to cooler air aloft and flow continuing off Lk Superior out of high
pressure over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

Looks like quiet weather will persist through much of the week. A
weak upper level trough will bring an increase in mid-level clouds
Tue into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow circulating around a
Hudson Bay high should ensure dry conditions. The mid level clouds
combined with the cool ne flow off Lake Superior will keep temps blo
normal Tue into Wed with highs in the upper 20s north to lower to
mid 30s south.

Upper ridge from the west begins to shift into the Upper Great Lakes
Thursday and Friday yielding more sunshine as temps push back toward
normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s north to upper 30s south.

Next weekend mainly on Saturday, the 00Z Canadian model indicates
pcpn (mainly in the form of snow) reaching into mainly the sw and
south central portions of Upper Mi, associated with a stronger
shortwave moving through the Upper MS Valley. It is likely that the
northern portion of the pcpn shield from this shortwave will be
impeded by continued dry east to northeast low level flow from the
Hudson Bay high as suggested by the drier 12Z/00Z ECMWF solutions
and now the latest 00z GFS solution. At this point, will keep low
chc pops in for light snow over the sw and south central fcst area
based on model consensus, but could easily see drier solution of
12Z/00Z ECMWF and 00z GFS verifying given strength of persistent
ridging from Hudson Bay into the Upper Great Lakes.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 356 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around
25 knots over western Lake Superior into tonight. Otherwise no
significant winds are expected through the forecast period, with
winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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