Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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706
FXUS66 KMTR 160549
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1049 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the Desert Southwest will gradually
build westward and across California over the next few days. This
will result in a warming trend through Saturday, especially over
the interior. Temperatures will warm above normal in the inland
valleys and hills by Friday and Saturday. Cooling is then expected
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 9:05 PM PDT Wednesday...Earlier clearing in
coastal areas today compared to yesterday resulted in afternoon
highs that were 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Inland
temperatures were similar to yesterday and remained about 5 to 10
degrees cooler than normal as a relatively deep marine layer and
brisk onshore flow allowed marine air to filter well inland.

An upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest is forecast to
gradually strengthen and expand westward across California through
the end of the week. This will result in a warming trend across
our region through Saturday. Warming will be most pronounced
across inland areas. By Friday and Saturday the inland valleys and
hills are forecast to be as much as 15 degrees warmer than today.
90s will be common in the inland valleys and a few of the warmer
spots will likely reach triple digits. Although models forecast
the development of light offshore flow near the top of the marine
boundary layer Friday night into Saturday, surface flow is
forecast to remain at least light onshore. Thus, coastal warming
through the end of the week will is only expected to be on the
order of about five degrees.

Skies were mostly clear along the coast this afternoon, but
satellite shows that low clouds are rapidly developing along the
coast this evening and beginning to form inland as well. Expect
low clouds to develop in most valleys by Thursday morning. Night
and morning low clouds will become less extensive by the end of
the week, particularly inland, as the marine layer compresses.

The upper ridge is forecast to shift to the southeast beginning
Sunday as an upper trough approaches from the northwest. This will
result in a cooling trend during the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:49 PM PDT Wednesday...For 00z TAFs. A thin
strip of stratus has developed along the coast this evening. A
deep marine layer and persistent onshore flow will allow
widespread stratus to fill in across the region once again
tonight. Onshore flow around 5 to 10 kt will prevail through the
night.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs will prevail through tonight. Low
clouds will scatter out around 19z Thursday. Onshore flow of 10
kt or less will persist through the night with breezy west winds
around 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt expected Thursday
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO with low clouds returning
overnight and scattering out around 19z-20z Thursday afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs will fill in across area
terminals overnight with LIFR conditions possible early Thursday
morning. Low clouds will scatter out around 17z Thursday morning.
Light winds.


&&

.MARINE...as of 8:44 PM PDT Wednesday...Generally light to
moderate northwesterly winds will continue across the coastal
waters through the end of the work week as high pressure sits over
the eastern Pacific. Locally gusty afternoon and evening winds
are expected in the San Francisco Bay north of the Golden Gate and
along the Big Sur Coast south of Point Sur. Look for winds to
start to increase as we head into the weekend. Mixed northwest and
southerly swells will remain light to moderate with a longer
period southerly swell forecast to arrive this weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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