Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 121729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

A weak upper-level shortwave axis continues to move east over the
forecast area this morning. A few low clouds and possibly a few
flurries continue to drift through our eastern counties but
this should exit the area by sunrise, if not earlier. Mostly
sunny skies are expected for much of the day until later this
evening ahead of the next approaching upper-level shortwave
trough. This will also push a surface cold front into the region
this evening with some patchy fog possible ahead of the boundary
generally along and east of the Missouri River valley. Model
guidance continues to produce light QPF across northeast Nebraska
overnight in association with the approaching shortwave trough. A
dusting of snow is possible along the SD/Nebraska border as upper
level forcing quickly passes through the region. A few flurries or
spotty drizzle cannot be ruled out behind the surface front as the
NAM would indicate, but any precipitation would be very light. At
the same time to our south, a southern stream closed low will
drive east across Texas with Gulf moisture forecast to drive north
into eastern KS and spread into Missouri. By then, the surface
cold front should extend just to the southeast of our CWA. Some
light precipitation is possible in our very far southeastern
counties behind the frontal boundary Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the long term as upper ridging builds across the Central
Plains into the early part of the weekend. A fast-moving shortwave
will drive through the area Sunday but upper heights will build
into the area again through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

VFR conditions early in the period with southerly winds less than
8 knots. Becoming MVFR with a wind shift to the northwest by
09-15z. Could also see a few flurries at KOFK 09-12z. Back to VFR
at KOFK by 16z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald


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