Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180815
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Latest water vapor imagery shows a fairly extensive moist plume
moving northeast across our region which lies in between a western
trough and a large ridge over the eastern states. In addition, a
subtle shortwave was evident across far northeastern New Mexico this
morning and is forecast to move into central Nebraska early this
afternoon. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front extends from low
pressure over southeast Colorado northeastward to extreme
northeast Nebraska and into southeastern Minnesota.

This morning, spotty showers extend close to the boundary and
should continue to dissipate as the morning wears on.
Temperatures south of the front will again be quite warm with
readings likely reaching the low 90s while dewpoints hover in the
low 70s. Apparent temperatures will max out around 100 in our far
southeast which is borderline for a headline. Will hold off on a
heat advisory as clouds are expected to increase by peak heating
when chances for thunderstorms increase. Similar to Sunday
afternoon, a couple of areas of thunderstorms could possibly
develop in a moderately unstable environment in the warm sector.
Mid-level lapse rates are rather meager as they were Sunday, but
with an approaching short-wave, we should see some mid-level
cooling, allowing a few isolated strong to severe storms as bulk
wind shear values remain modest. By this evening, expect a
majority of storms to focus along the synoptic boundary with any
of these capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as the
boundary slowly drifts south into southeast Nebraska.

By Tuesday afternoon, the surface front will extend near the
Kansas/Nebraska border which should be where any showers and
thunderstorms tend to focus. By Tuesday evening, showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread ahead of the approaching
mid-level western trough/low with some locally heavy rainfall
possible with PW`s well above normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Models are in fairly good agreement with
deepening this closed system over central Nebraska Wednesday night
and sliding it southeast into the Kansas City area by Thursday
night. Heavy rain is likely with this system and week-long
accumulative QPF values are over a couple inches. This system
should also keep cooler temperatures over the region into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Scattered SHRA or TSRA will be around KOFK for at least the next
several hours and there will probably be some MVFR or lower
ceilings. There are IFR ceilings to the west. Winds will mainly
be from the north or northeast into Monday morning. For KLNK and
KOMA there is some chance of TSRA later tonight based on some of
the high resolution short range models. Ceilings for KOMA and KLNK
should mostly be VFR outside of any TSRA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller



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