Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 211122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

The forecast remains largely unchanged for the week. Dry, warm
conditions are expected through Friday. For the weekend, it
appears the central CONUS will be under the influence of a deep
trough which will lead to a cool down and provide a chance for


Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Decided to include some small chances for rain along the NE/SD
border in the late morning. The convective allowing models (CAMs)
are in good agreement in producing some showers in that general
area. However, the atmosphere is especially dry through the entire
column so I would be surprised if any rain does developed. Forcing
will also be fairly weak. That said, there are some weak radar
returns in western Nebraska as of this writing (3 am). It likely
isn`t producing anything much heavier than sprinkles.

Outside of a small chance for sprinkles, today should be like the
last few days. Slight haze to the sky with temperatures around 80
degrees. Winds will be weaker than yesterday. Expect winds from
the south at 10 to 15 mph and gusting up to 20 mph.

Tuesday through Friday:
Weak upper level ridging will be in place for the week. This will
result in southerly flow at the surface and above normal
temperatures. Temperatures above 80 degrees are expected through
Friday. The smoke that has been in place for some time now, should
begin to thin out. It has been slower to thin out due the tropical
systems helping force the smoke back toward the central portion of
the country. Temperatures should see a slight increase with a
thinner layer of smoke above the area. The layer has likely had an
effect the last few days with temperatures being observed a few
degrees below model guidance. Low temperatures for the week should
range between 55 and 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday:
A change up from the benign weather is likely next weekend. Medium
range guidance is in good agreement in a longwave trough moving
over the central CONUS. It`s probable that maximum temperatures
will dip below 80 degrees. Rain will be possible as a cold front
associated with the longwave trough moves across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Winds remain the primary concern through the period. Southerly
winds 12 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Still some LLWS at
KOFK through about 14z with winds at 2000` from about 220 degrees
at 35 knots. Gusts diminishing by 23-01z. Could also be a few
showers or sprinkles in northeast NE, but perhaps staying just
north of KOFK.




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