Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 202328
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
628 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR for the next 24 hours with no significant aviation concerns.
Winds around 15 kt should decrease to below 10 kt after 01Z. Winds
should pick up again to the 15 to 20 kt range for Sunday
afternoon.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Lee trough will strengthen Sunday, with breezy south to southwest
winds in the Big Country and Concho Valley. Highs are expected in
the mid 80s to 90 degrees. A late afternoon dryline along an
Ozona...Mertzon...Robert Lee...Sweetwater...Roby line will elevate
fire weather concerns, as relative humidity values fall below 20
percent with 20 foot south winds near 20 mph. Green vegetation,
however, will keep conditions from becoming critical

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)

..Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by midweek.
Some of these thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall...

(Monday)

Monday will be the last of the quiet days before we flip the
switch back to a wet and unsettled pattern. Monday will feature
plenty of sunshine with continued warm temperatures aided by the
continuous southerly flow across the region. Afternoon highs will
once again reach the low 80s. Overnight lows will be mild with
temperatures in the lower 60s.

(Tuesday through Thursday)

The main focus during this timeframe is to highlight the potential
for a hydrological event across the area beginning Tuesday.
Surface southeasterly flow will continue to pump rich Gulf
moisture into our area, ahead of an approaching deep upper level
trough. On Tuesday, a week surface low will develop across the
Texas Panhandle along a surface boundary that will stall out
across our northwestern counties. Rain and thunderstorm
development will begin along this boundary. The initial round of
development on Tuesday will be scattered in nature and will only
impact a few counties. As this boundary sags south, and with the
arrival of the upper level support, significant overrunning and
training thunderstorms will be likely in and around locations
close to this boundary. Heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs
will increase into the 1.40" range on Wednesday. Where this
boundary sets up shop will play a big role in who sees the very
heavy rainfall and who just sees a steady rain. Another forecast
challenge will be the exact evolution of the upper level feature.
An open trough will move through the region much faster as opposed
to a closed low sitting west of our area. Both features will
bring rain to our area, the main question with the evolution of
this upper level feature will be how long will the rain persist.
We will continue to monitor this feature and update the forecast
as needed, but we are expecting widespread rain and thunderstorms
to begin on Tuesday and persist into Thursday. Temperatures will
be cooler with the ongoing rain and increased cloud clover. Highs
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

(Friday through next Sunday)

An upper level ridge moves back into our area and will bring and
end to the wet weather. Expect spring like temperatures for next
weekend with plenty of sunshine. Highs will climb back into the
80s on Friday and into the mid to upper 80s by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  87  62  82 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  60  90  60  82 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  57  87  59  82 /   0   0   0   5
Brownwood  57  85  59  80 /   0   0   0   5
Sweetwater  62  89  62  81 /   0   0   0   5
Ozona       57  87  58  79 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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