Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 220803
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
303 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Back to the triple digits...

The main concern through tonight will be the continued trend
toward dangerous heat across the area. Temperatures are expected
to warm into the upper 90s to around 102 degrees across the
forecast area this afternoon, and heat index values will warm to
around 103 degrees. Although conditions will be hot, and a few
isolated locations may briefly reach Heat Advisory conditions,
most areas will be just under Heat Advisory criteria, so will not
issue a headline for today. Winds will continue to be out of the
south and breezy during the late morning/afternoon hours.
Overnight, warm, balmy conditions can be expected with lows mainly
in the mid 70s.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday and Saturday night)

Very hot temperatures with heat indices approaching 108 to 110
degrees on Saturday along and north of a line from Mertzon to San
Angelo to Eden to Brownwood. There is a chance for a few storms
becoming severe across the Big Country Saturday evening.

Models continue to show a pre-frontal trough setting up from
Midland northeast towards Haskell. This will result in hot
temperatures on Saturday as the 850 MB thermal ridge reaches its
peak to near 30 degrees celsius across the area. Temperatures
should easily reach 104 or higher over much of the region. Plan to
issue an SPS, highlighting this heat as well as the severe
weather threat. A heat product will likely be issued later today
for Saturday.

Then a shortwave trough is progged by models to interact with a
the pre-frontal trough extending from Midland to Rotan to Haskell,
triggering scattered thunderstorms during the late afternoon and
evening. SPC has placed areas along and north of I20 from
Sweetwater to Abilene in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
because of high MUCAPE values and decent deep layer shear.
However, with DCAPE Values near 1900 j/kg and an inverted V
sounding, there definitely is a potential for damaging downburst
winds and large hail for the area along and north of I20 Saturday
evening.

(Sunday through Thursday)

Strong upper level high pressure should begin to weaken by Sunday
as afternoon highs climb to near 102. Monday through Thursday.
afternoon highs should climb mostly into the mid and upper 90s,
with a few 100s across the northern Big Country. A brisk south to
southeast wind will also prevail

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  77 104  76 /   0   0   5  30
San Angelo 101  77 105  76 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  99  76 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood 101  77 103  76 /   0   0   5   5
Sweetwater 101  76 102  76 /   0   0  10  30
Ozona       97  75 101  75 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/20



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