Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 121811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1211 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

/18Z TAFS/

MVFR/IFR ceilings prevail across all terminals early this
afternoon, with some patchy light rain or mist being reporting at
times at KABI. Expects cigs to gradually lift to VFR at KABI and
KSJT by this evening. MVFR cigs will hang on a bit longer at the
southern terminals before lifting to VFR tonight. Otherwise,
gusty northerly winds will continue this afternoon and into the
evening hours and remain breezy overnight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/


/12Z TAFS/

A messy, wet and windy day is on tap for all terminals. IFR to
LIFR ceilings are currently in place and should persist through
late afternoon across the region before rising above 1500ft.
Ceilings are expected to slowly break up after 03Z. North winds
today should increase over 20KT with frequent gusts to 30.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

(Today and Tonight)

.Blustery, wet, and cold on Monday, with a hard freeze Monday

A strong cold front is currently making it`s way through west
central Texas. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the 50s and
behind the front were in the 40s. Scattered showers and areas of
drizzle were ongoing in vicinity of the front. This front will
continue moving southeast through the region by mid morning.
Behind the front, temperatures will continue falling into the 30s
and 40s across the area, with rain showers expected through
midday. For the Big Country along and north of I-20, temperatures
will be close enough to freezing that some snow may mix in with
the rain, but at this time, no accumulation is expected.
Precipitation should start tapering off this afternoon, then end
completely by this evening. Skies will clear out late this evening
and overnight, which will result in temperatures falling into the
20s after midnight. As a result, a Freeze Warning has been issued
area-wide through tomorrow morning. In addition, cold northerly
winds today, combined with colder air moving in, will produce wind
chills in the 20s today, dropping into the teens tonight.

(Tuesday through next Sunday)

The upper level trough will move across the area Tuesday, and
northerly flow will continue to advect in cool air, so
temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s. Tuesday night,
the surface high pressure ridge will be centered over the area,
resulting in light winds in a cold and dry air mass. Along with
clear skies, this will allow for good radiational cooling and lows
falling into the 20s again Wednesday morning. Some locations
could even see temperatures near 20 degrees.

The upper level low will be slow to move east out of the area,
making it to the ArkLaTex region by Wednesday morning, then to the
northeast into the Ohio Valley by Thursday. This will leave us
under dry northwest flow aloft, allowing for a warming trend from
Wednesday through the first half of the weekend. Highs will warm
from the 50s on Wednesday, into the 60s for Thursday and Friday.
With dry air still in place, lows will still be cool, dropping
into the 30s. The next cold front is expected to move into the
area by Saturday night. There may be a chance for some light rain
with this front, but there is little in the way of upper level
support, so will leave the forecast dry for now. Slightly cooler
temperatures expected Sunday.


Abilene  24  42  26  52 /   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  24  45  23  55 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  27  46  24  55 /  10   5   0   5
Brownwood  25  43  23  51 /   5   5   0   0
Sweetwater  24  42  26  50 /   5   0   0   0
Ozona       26  45  24  53 /   5   0   0   0


Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-


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