Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 211954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
254 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

(Tonight and Thursday)

Dry and warm weather will persist across the area the next 24 hours,
as southerly low level flow continues and an upper level ridge moves
east into the Plains by tomorrow afternoon. South winds will remain
elevated across the Big Country overnight, with gusty south winds
developing across all of the area on Thursday. Temperatures will be
warmer tonight and on Thursday, with overnight lows around 50
degrees and highs Thursday afternoon in the upper 70s and lower

(Friday through next Wednesday)

.Hot and dry through the weekend then an active weather pattern
arrives next week...

Much of West Central Texas will be hot and dry through the weekend
with breezy conditions developing Friday afternoon and lasting
through Sunday. The pattern will become very unsettled beginning
Monday and lasting through much of next week with widespread showers
and thunderstorms possible. These thunderstorms have the potential to
become strong to severe.

(Friday through Sunday)

A large upper level ridge will be settled over much of west Texas
through this time period. At the surface, the dryline will retreat
into far western Texas as strong southerly flow brings in abundant
moisture into our area. Winds will be gusty beginning Friday afternoon
and lasting through Sunday as a developing area of low pressure
across the southern Rockies helps tighten the pressure gradient
across region. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts up
to 25 mph. The 850mb temperatures will increase into the 20-23 degree
Celsius range during the afternoons on Saturday and Sunday, and
with continued southeasterly flow, expect very warm temperatures
during the afternoons. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s.

(Monday through Wednesday)

Showers and thunderstorms are looking more likely across all of West
Central Texas beginning Monday.

The setup:

A deep trough will begin to form across the western CONUS by early
Monday. Both models have the trough closing off and forming an upper
level low across western Arizona. A dryline will shift east and
settle just to our west beginning Monday afternoon. Strong
southeasterly flow at the surface will bring in moist, unstable air
to the region ahead of the dryline. Embedded shortwaves aloft will
move out of southern New Mexico and interact with this dryline.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area Monday
afternoon along the dryline and move east. Some of these storms
could be strong to severe. At this time we will just mention
general showers and thunderstorms, but will update the forecast
concerning the severe weather threat as we get closer to Monday.

The closed will become stationary and interject multiple shortwaves
across the area through Wednesday. With a moist airmass across the
region and a dryline that will continue to be located to our west,
showers and thunderstorms chances will remain in the forecast for
much of the area. Temperatures will cool slightly as the rain cooled
air and overcast skies will allow temperatures to hold steady. Highs
on Monday will be in the low to mid 80s the dropping back into the
70s for Tuesday and Wednesday.


Abilene  52  79  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  50  81  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  50  77  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  50  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  52  81  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       51  77  58  84 /   0   0   0   0




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