Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 211749
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1149 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Windy conditions will continue as the southerly winds have picked
up in intensity over the past several hours. Look for sustained
winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts between 30 and 35
knots. Skies will remain generally clear with high clouds moving
in from the west. These VFR conditions will continue through the
afternoon and into the early evening.

By 01z surface winds will shift to the southeast and come down in
intensity. Included the mention of LLWS at all terminals from 01z
through 09z in this TAF package. Not all terminals will see LLWS
conditions for the entire duration but LLWS conditions at 2,000ft
AGL between 45 to 50 knots from the south can be expected across
the terminals.

In the late evening to early morning hours, some development of
low stratus off to the east may expand west and impact all
terminals, except the KABI terminal. MVFR conditions may develop
across the; KJCT, KSOA, KSJT and KBBD terminals from 06z to 16z,
with CIGs ranging from 1,500 to 2,500 feet. Once these low clouds
dissipate, VFR conditions will quickly return to the terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Windy today with south winds gusting to 35 KTS at KABI and 30 KTS
at KSJT from mid morning into the afternoon. Breezy conditions
will persist overnight, and may increase towards midnight as a
45-50 KT 850 MB low level develops. MVFR stratus may affect KSOA
and KBBD and KSJT after midnight as moisture move up from South
Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A Wind Advisory will be in effect for the Big Country today, as a
tight pressure gradient develops between a lee trough to the west
and surface high pressure to the east. South winds will be mainly
in the 25 to 30 mph range, with gusts to around 40 mph. The winds
will decrease below wind advisory toward sunset, but remain
breezy overnight. It will otherwise be warmer and mostly sunny
today with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Tonight, the warmer
trend continues with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, due to the
stronger winds and stratus (low clouds) developing after midnight.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

No significant changes to the long term forecast thinking this
morning. An active pattern with several upper level lows moving
through the central CONUS is expected to bring a series of dry
cold frontal passages causing periodic swings in temperatures.

The first cold front will move through the area Tuesday as an
upper level low and associated trough move east across the CONUS.
At this point, the front is expected to move into the northern Big
Country by midday on Tuesday, which would allow for some warming
ahead of the front. Temperatures should be able to warm into the
50s north of I-10, to mid 60s for southern areas before the front
moves through and cools temperatures down. May see some isolated
light sprinkles ahead of the front across the southern 1/3 of the
area, but coverage is not expected to be enough to warrant a
mention of PoPs during the day. Tuesday night, an area of showers
with some isolated or scattered thunderstorms should develop along
the front near or just east of our CWA, and have kept a slight
chance of showers in for areas east of a Brownwood to Junction
line. Wednesday will be cooler area-wide, with highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s, followed by warmer temperatures Thursday.

The next cold front will move into the area Thursday night into
Friday. This front will be a glancing blow of arctic air, and
could carry colder air with it. Highs Friday right now are in the
50s, but these may be cooled somewhat as models get a better
handle on the front.

Winds quickly turn back around to the south by Saturday morning,
ahead of the next cold front, which looks like it will be a
Pacific cold front, moving through Saturday afternoon, followed
by one more passage early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  59  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  47  64  30  52 /   0   0   5   0
Junction  49  68  32  54 /   0   0  10   5
Brownwood  49  65  31  50 /   5   0  10   0
Sweetwater  48  57  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       44  63  31  52 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Callahan-Fisher-
Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

99/99/40


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