Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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836
FXUS65 KVEF 222245
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Northerly gusts and flurries possible for most on
Friday with well below normal temperatures. The pattern remains
active, with the storm track sinking further south next week,
bringing periodic breezy winds and better chances of
precipitation.
&&

.NEAR TERM...through Tonight.
At least spotty 40+ MPH gusts occuring from the southern Sierra to
along and south of the I-15 corridor. Any widespread gusts have
likely peaked, though some enhancement in the lee of the Sierra
Nevada or Spring Mountains is possible through tonight.

A bit more moisture entering the area along with additional lift
as the base of the upper-level trough swings through Nevada. This
will produce the most snow for Lincoln and Mohave counties. With
just enough moisture around the area, expect increasing isolated
shower activity through the night. Most precip will not reach the
ground, but given the cool temperatures and dry air, any that does
will at least be mixed with snow.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

The western US trough bringing gusty winds to the region today
will likely drag just enough moisture into the area tonight and
Friday to spark off a few showers or flurries, with accumulation
limited to Lincoln and Mohave counties, which are currently under
the Winter Weather Advisory. Snow levels remain quite low through
Friday, around 2000`. Northerly gusts Friday will remain weaker
than those seen Thursday, probably around 30-40 MPH or less.

Attention then turns to the next in a series of systems. A weak
upper-level shortwave will quickly swing by Saturday into Sunday.
It looks to have minimal impact on sensible weather, just a few
northerly breezes, and perhaps a shower or two in Lincoln County.

The next two systems have a little more potential for impacts next
week. Monday into Tuesday, a shortwave trough will dig down the
western US coast, then attempt to close off the southern
California coast before swinging eastward across the US-Mexico
border. While moisture again looks like it could be fairly limited
with this system, strong dynamics will be sufficient to create
widespread chances for some precipitation, with snow levels
remaining on the low-side, around 4000`. An even more potent
system then comes in from the Gulf of Alaska for the end of the
week. Models in generally consensus on develop strong closed low
just off the coast, with a decent moisture tap across the Pacific.
This system would have the best potential to bring widespread
precipitation, with significant mountain snows.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...The strongest winds are expected through
04z out of the southwest with gusts up to 40 kts. Winds begin to
taper off toward Friday morning and become northwesterly between 15-
17z. Gusty northwest winds at 15-25 kts are expected on Friday
afternoon. Flurries or sprinkles are possible on Friday with CIGS
generally AOB 10k ft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Southwest winds expected to continue across the region
this evening, with gusts around 30 to 45 kts. Highest winds expected
along an east-west swath from DAG to SGU. Winds will be decreasing
and shifting to the northwest by morning in most locations. Snow
showers this evening from the Sierra Nevada to central Nevada and
northwest Arizona, particularly over the higher terrain. Ceilings
will generally remain above 10 kft at TAF sites, with the exception
of KBIH where CIGS will lower to 3kft during the evening. Gusty
northwest winds at 15-25 kts expecting on Friday afternoon with
showers mainly over the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Mohave
County.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not
anticipated through the weekend. Spotters are encouraged to
report any significant weather or impacts according to standard
operating procedures.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/DISCUSSION...Steele
Aviation...............Czyzyk

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