102
ACUS11 KWNS 262307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262306
MNZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...northwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of
North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262306Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...One or two supercells may evolve through the 7-9 PM CDT
time frame, accompanied by potential for large hail and some risk
for a brief tornado.  This is not anticipated to require a severe
weather watch, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air,
a seasonably moist boundary-layer across parts of the Red River
Valley has become characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000-3000
J/kg.  This is generally focused within narrow corridors near the
Red River, and immediately ahead of a weak eastward advancing cold
front.  Although lingering mid-level inhibition has slowed
convective development, the initiation of sustained isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development appears underway.

Subtle mid-level cooling near the southern periphery of a mid-level
cyclone crossing the Canadian Prairies may gradually erode
inhibition further into early evening.  However, based on the
various model output, it remains unclear whether this will become
supportive of a substantive increase in convective coverage.  Even
so, given at least a narrow window for continuing inflow of
moderately unstable air, ongoing activity probably will continue to
intensify.  One or two supercells may eventually evolve in the
presence of 35-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow.  Low-level
hodographs appear modest, but a brief tornado may not be out of the
question, in addition to a risk for large hail.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48439677 49859579 50169531 49399466 47809588 47819669
            48439677