Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
700 FXUS62 KKEY 231430 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 It is a calm Sunday morning across the Florida Keys. CIMSS mean layer products (300-850 mb) show a ridge centered over Puerto Rico with mainly westerly flow to its northwest across much of the Gulf. There is also a weak trough present across the Bay of Campeche which may be part of the catalyst as to why we have a great deal of high cirrus clouds streaming from southeast to northwest across much of Florida. Looking at the steering layer (700-850 mb), a ridge is centered across the far eastern Atlantic with this ridge elongated to the west all the way to the Florida Peninsula. There are also some low level cumulus clouds which were mostly over the Straits of Florida as depicted on GOES 16 Visible satellite. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s with dew points in the mid 60s. Surface high pressure across the Atlantic extends west into Florida this morning. This is leading to marine platforms around the Keys observing easterly breezes near 10 knots and Island Chain communities observing near 10 mph. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 12z morning sounding shows two distinct moist layers. The first is between 925 mb to 850 mb with the second layer much higher up between 325 mb and 185 mb. This makes sense with what we are seeing on visible satellite with the high and low clouds traversing the area. The PWAT value measured was 0.94 inches which is slightly higher than the 25th percentile for the date. The wind profile shows a decent veering profile from easterly at 1000 ft AGL to southerly at 3000 ft AGL. This would favor showers normally, however, we are still quite dry. Therefore, a dry forecast remains for today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the Atlantic extends westward into the Florida Peninsula through Monday. This will maintain mostly east to southeast gentle breezes, strengthening slightly later this afternoon, especially in the Straits of Florida. Weak and messy ridging will dominate through the first half of the week, keeping breezes light and largely easterly. A weak front may press south through the Keys sometime Wednesday night or Thursday. In the wake of the weak front, strong high pressure builds in behind it leading to freshening easterly breezes through the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Monday morning, with nil rain chances. Near surface winds will remain light out of the northeast to east. && .CLIMATE... In 1959, March 23th began what would continue on to become the driest stretch in the Key West records book. May 5th marked the end of a 44-day dry streak, where not even a trace was recorded. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 72 82 72 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 78 72 81 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest