Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 170404
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1104 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

A cold front will begin to accelerate later this afternoon from
northwestern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma. Ahead of that, it will
be very hot and humid with heat index ranging up to 108. The heat
advisory remains in effect this afternoon. By late afternoon,
isolated thunderstorms are expected to form near the front generally
around or to the north of I-40. With very large surface dew point
depressions and high LCLs, its likely that some storms will produce
severe winds. Although rather isolated, these storms near the
southward-moving cold front would probably impact the greater OKC
area 4 PM - 7 PM or so. The front is expected to move past
southeastern Oklahoma by sunrise Wednesday. Stratus is expected to
follow the front by several hours, at least through northern and
central Oklahoma. Overnight, there is a signal for rain and
thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma associated with the passage
of the southern extent of the weak trough passing through the
westerlies. Moderately gusty winds behind the front will create a
stark contrast between this afternoon and Wednesday during the
daytime. Low clouds are expected to exit central and north central
Oklahoma later Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Shower and thunderstorms chances will continue across southern and
western portions of the fa Wednesday night into Thursday before the
front that is expected to be south of the fa washes out and as a
shortwave continues to move across the region Wednesday night.

A brief dry period is expected Thursday night into Friday with
temperatures warming back into the 90s Friday afternoon. Models then
show an upper low moving across the upper midwest into the Great
Lakes region which will drag a frontal boundary into the area over
the weekend. This system will bring a better chance for rain over
the weekend that will continue into early next week. The front along
with clouds and rain should lead to cooler temperatures with highs
generally remaining in the 80s Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

The initial showers over west central and central Oklahoma near
the front are dissipating, but the convection over southeast
Colorado and southwest Kansas will continue to move toward
northwest Oklahoma, although a weakening trend has been noted with
these showers/storms. Still there is a potential for these to move
into the KWWR area early Wednesday morning.

Stratus with MVFR (and locally IFR) ceilings continues to spread
south from Kansas into northern Oklahoma and will affect northern
and central Oklahoma Wednesday morning. There is some potential
for this stratus to reach KLAW as well, but the chances are not
high enough to put in the TAF at this time. Ceilings will lift
back to VFR on Tuesday afternoon across most of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  85  66  85 /  40  20  10  10
Hobart OK         71  90  67  89 /  20  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  97  69  88 /  10  20  40  30
Gage OK           65  79  60  86 /  60  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     68  79  63  86 /  50  30   0   0
Durant OK         76  98  69  84 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26


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