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000
FXUS64 KOUN 161038
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
538 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Highs today will increase a few degrees over yesterday`s values as
the upper ridge amplifies further to our west and heights rise
slightly over the area. Deep mixing will once again allow dewpoints
to drop some during the afternoon, which will keep heat index values
in check, generally within a few degrees of air temperatures. With
the continued influence of upper ridging and a stagnated airmass,
air quality will once again be poor for portions of central OK,
where Air Quality Alerts are in effect. Lows tonight will drop
off into the low 70s under continued mainly clear skies.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Upper ridging will begin to weaken and retreat westward towards the
end of this week into this weekend, with fairly substantial
northwest flow then setting up over the central US by early next
week. This may allow for an increase in rain/storm chances and
relatively cooler temperatures to move into the area.

Before this occurs expect another few days of hot and dry
conditions, as the low-level thermal ridge shifts southward into
northwest OK. Highs will reach into the mid 90s over central and
southern OK to near or over 100 out west both Thursday and Friday.
A tropical disturbance is expected to move northward along the
Texas coast Saturday. With upper ridging overhead this system
will have little to no impact over our area as it heads into the
Mississippi Valley, outside of perhaps some increased high level
cloudiness or a stray shower over far southeast portions of the
area Saturday afternoon.

By the end of the weekend the aforementioned pattern change will
begin to occur with the ridge retreating westward and a cold front
forecast to track across the area either Sunday night or Monday.
This will bring with it increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with highs dropping into the upper 80s/near 90 behind
the front. At least low storm chances can be expected to continue
into the middle of next week as northwest flow persists.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

VFR conditions expected this TAF period with some high clouds
moving across parts of the area.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         98  70 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  97  71  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          100  71 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     97  71 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         95  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25