893
FXUS64 KOUN 130305
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1005 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

- Very strong northerly winds expected behind a cold front Sunday
  with a slight chance of rain/snow across north central
  Oklahoma.

- Dry conditions and mostly above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The gusty south winds are diminishing this evening with the
setting sun and thus fire weather conditions are improving across
the area. The Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire at 8PM CDT.
The low- level jet will increase overnight ahead of the
approaching cold front and bring continued low-end breezy south
winds through the early morning hours. The cold front is still
expected to enter northern Oklahoma shortly before sunrise and be
through much of the forecast area by the late morning to early
afternoon hours. Expect winds to shift to the northeast following
the frontal boundary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Lee troughing will extend into the Panhandles by late afternoon,
while surface high pressure shifts into northeast Texas and Louisiana.
The gradient between the two will produce a gusty southwest wind
with the strongest winds expected across west central and
northwestern Oklahoma (occasional wind gusts of 35-40 mph). With
dry return flow, afternoon humidity is expected to approach 15-20
percent across much of Oklahoma and northern Texas. Near-critical
to perhaps critical fire weather conditions this afternoon will
improve this evening, as humidity slowly improves.

A moderate to breezy southerly wind is expected this evening and
overnight with a rather strong and veered low-level jet developing.
With the wind remaining strong enough, overnight lows will only drop
into the lower to mid 40s with cooler reading in sheltered areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night/Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A weak cold front will move across parts of northern Oklahoma on
Friday bringing northeast to easterly surface winds.  Surface low
pressure in southwestern Oklahoma will gradually move southward into
northern Texas during the day.  This will bring a southeast to east
flow across most of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas with a
gradual increase in higher dewpoint temperatures.

Surface winds will become breezy on Saturday afternoon, as a surface
low deepens across northwest Kansas. The low will track to the east
Saturday night, as an upper level disturbance moves across the
northern and central Rockies.  By early Sunday morning, a rather
strong cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma.  The front will
push rather quickly southeast during the day with wind gusts of 50-
55 mph behind the front. As the upper air disturbance moves
across northern Oklahoma during the afternoon, a brief period of
rain/snow will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A strong cold front will move in Sunday, with much drier air in
its wake. The combination of dry air and strong winds will foster
near critical to critical fire weather conditions for most of the
area Sunday afternoon. A hard freeze is expected Monday morning
which will affect vulnerable vegetation. Below average
temperatures expected Monday afternoon before a warm up back to
well-above normal by the middle to end of the week.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with overnight winds
of 10 to 15 knots and increasing low-level wind shear out of the
southwest at 40 to 50 knots through the early morning hours. A
cold front will bring a wind shift to the northeast across
northern Oklahoma near sunrise. The front will continue to push
southward through the morning and early afternoon hours with
northeast winds expected directly behind the frontal passage at
all terminals, but winds will continue to veer to the east through
the afternoon. Winds are likely to remain out of the south at
DUA, with a high likelihood of the front washing out before
reaching the terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  74  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  77  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  79  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           42  71  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     42  70  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         44  73  49  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...23