Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 190510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1110 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

06Z TAFs.


Same thoughts as before. The back-door front is expected to
continue moving southwest and will shift the winds to
northeasterly almost everywhere Sunday, except perhaps the wind
shift will be after 06Z at KSPS.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

00Z TAFs.

Winds will become light quickly this evening, then increase
somewhat from the west Sunday morning, except northeasterly at
KPNC behind a back-door cold front. VFR conditions will prevail
with generally only mid-high clouds expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

Surface winds should decrease this evening with the loss of daytime
mixing and the relaxation of the surface pressure gradient. Light
and variable winds are expected before gradually shifting to the
west late tonight.

For tomorrow, a backdoor cold front is expected to move into
northern/northeastern Oklahoma during the afternoon as a surface
ridge moves into the Midwest. The backdoor front should result in
a northeast to southwest temperature gradient. Locations southwest
of the backdoor cold front should be warmer than today.


LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

The aforementioned backdoor cold front will continue to move
southwestward Sunday night into Monday. Except for western north
Texas, most locations will be cooler Monday than Sunday with east-
northeast winds behind the front.

By late Tuesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it
digs across the Southern Plains. Cloud cover will increase markedly
Tuesday from west to east (which will result in cooler temperatures
due to reduced insolation). Insentropic ascent/warm air advection
downstream from the aforementioned trough will result in rain
beginning early Wednesday morning across the west. Precipitation
will spread eastward through the day Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Warm air and moisture advection should sufficiently warm the column
and increase wetbulb temperatures to keep the precipitation type as
rain. However, temperature profiles might be initially close for
winter precipitation Wednesday morning--trends in low-level
temperature will have to be monitored carefully. Due to nearly
moist-adiabatic lapse rates, elevated instability looks limited.
Therefore, thunder chances are low (only isolated thunder possible
Thursday afternoon across the east).

Forecast uncertainty increases markedly late Thursday into Friday as
the forecast will be modulated by when a northern stream shortwave
trough phases with a southern stream trough. The 18/12Z GFS
phases the two waves across the Rockies while the ECMWF phases the
two waves to the east. Consequently, the GFS is more amplified
and digs the wave farther south. The GFS solution would result in
a chance of winter precipitation (snow) across across the north
and west. For now, kept a low chance of both rain and snow Friday
morning given the uncertainty.

By next Saturday, a warming trend and dry conditions are expected in
the systems`s wake as mid-level heights rise across the Southern


18/18Z TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail. Gusty north winds this
afternoon will quickly subside toward and after 00Z with a return
to light southwest latter half of forecast.


Oklahoma City OK  28  51  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         23  51  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  27  51  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           22  52  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     25  44  20  41 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         28  51  29  51 /   0   0   0   0




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