Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

The 18Z TAF discussion is below.



Ceilings are lifting across Oklahoma and western north Texas.
In north central Oklahoma, there is expected to be some lingering
MVFR ceilings with a cumulus field moving northwest, however this
is expected to lift by 20Z. Overnight tonight into Sunday morning,
an MCS is expected to move through from the northwest. While
there is a high confidence for impacts in northwestern, north
central, and central Oklahoma, there is uncertainty on the
southern extent of impacts from the MCS. As this MCS
moves through, low ceilings, reduced visibilities, and
thunderstorm conditions will be the primary concerns.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/


For the 12z TAFs:

Midlevel perturbation and remnant MCV from overnight MCS may
combine to help force some additional isolated to scattered
convection across portions of the area through the afternoon.
Isolated showers are currently confined to south and east of
OKC/OUN, and any additional activity from aforementioned processes
should be generally near or east of those TAF sites. All other TAF
sites should stay dry until an MCS moves in this evening. Severe
wind gusts are possible with this MCS, particularly at/near WWR
and PNC, possibly as far southwest as CSM and LAW. Reductions in
visibility and low ceilings may accompany this complex as well.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/

This mornings MCS across our western CWA is expected to
wind down after sunrise as the low level jet weakens, with
some remnants of the storms lingering around through the late
morning hours. Cloud cover should keep temperatures slightly
cooler than normal for today. However both NAM and ECMWF suggest
some thinning of clouds late this afternoon generally west of
I-35, so we will need to keep an eye out for any heating induced
convection from developing out west, as they will be uncapped with
sufficient instability.

The bigger show for storms will be late tonight into Sunday
morning. A shortwave trough currently across the Central High
Plains will be digging into our area through the day.  A low
level jet will again be strengthening after sundown across
western Oklahoma, with its strongest core of near 60 mph across
the north Texas Panhandle. As the upper trough interacts with the
low level jet, we could expect numerous strong up to severe
thunderstorms breaking out across northwest Oklahoma, with
damaging winds being the main hazard. However, large hail would
also be possible with these storms across far northwest Oklahoma.
The heavy rainfall could also produce some some localized flooding
issues across northern Oklahoma. As the trough continues to dig
producing a northwest flow, the storms will move further south and
eastward into central Oklahoma by sunrise Sunday and reach the
Red River by late morning. However, weaker instability should keep
these storms below severe. The storms should be out of our area
by Sunday evening as the upper trough moves to the east.

Monday will be dry and hot as an upper ridge builds in, with triple
digits returning to our southwest and upper 90s across our
remainder. With a humid air mass still in place for one more day,
heat indicies will be between 105 up to 110 degrees, so an
excessive heat warning may have to be issued. Fortunately, there
is relief in sight as a cold front will begin dropping through
late in the day, bringing temperature back down slightly below
normal for Tuesday into Wednesday and less humid. It will also
bring chances for showers and thunderstorm back into the forecast,
especially on Thursday as gulf moisture begins to make its


Oklahoma City OK  71  90  74  97 /  60  40  10  10
Hobart OK         72  98  75 103 /  30  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  98  77 103 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           68  95  69  96 /  40  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     68  82  71  91 /  80  60  10  20
Durant OK         72  93  75  98 /  20  30  10  10




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