Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 050840
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
240 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

A weak air mass over the central plains and modest westerly flow in
in the subtropical flow is retarding the movement of the weak cold
front over southeastern Oklahoma. A weak surface low pressure over
northeastern Texas today will further keep the front in the area of
southeastern Oklahoma along with seasonably high surface moisture.
This will allow the opportunity for a few thunderstorms there later
today. The front is expected to finally exit this area tonight with
cooler and drier northeast winds to follow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

A long fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow in the
subtropical branch of the westerlies will provide several weak
impulses of vertical motion over the southern plains from Wednesday.
At the surface, a weak pressure ridge will translate east of the
lower Mississippi Valley while lee troughing develops over eastern
Colorado and New Mexico. This will be associated with increasing
boundary layer moisture over Oklahoma from Wednesday. Some
showers/storms are possible from later Wednesday into Friday.
Thursday afternoon a dryline and cold front will be entering western
Oklahoma while aloft a broad, large scale upper trough will move
east from the Four Corners area. More coverage for rain and
thunderstorms is expected with a chance for some severe storms given
the increasing vertical shear and low-level moisture. A surface low
may track eastward near the Red River or further south across
northern Texas Thursday night and Friday. A cold front is expected
to have moved through most of Oklahoma by Friday evening. The upper
system may not fully clear the southern plains until Saturday,
leaving a chance for showers and storms until Saturday morning.
Cooler drier air will follow for the weekend before once again rise
above average the first of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Winds have become light across the area this morning. There is
still a low chance of some showers and storms across southeast
Oklahoma, including KDUA, for a few hours overnight. Stratus with
MVFR ceilings still looks possible at KDUA Tuesday morning, but
chances remain at or below 30 percent at the other TAF sites, so
will only mention stratus at KDUA. North winds will increase after
sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  43  69  55 /   0   0   0  40
Hobart OK         67  40  68  53 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  73  45  74  58 /   0   0   0  30
Gage OK           62  32  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     63  40  68  51 /   0   0   0  60
Durant OK         75  49  75  58 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26


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