Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190401
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few mid clouds will continue overnight, otherwise VR conditions
are expected to continue through the forecast period. Lighter
north/northwest winds overnight will again increase by 14/15Z with
gusts up to 25kts likely most sites through the daytime hours.
Winds are expected to become light right around 00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

UPDATE...
Made adjustments to PoP/Wx grids and sky cover. Only minor tweaks
on other grids.

DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms have been decreasing over the last hour or two with
the loss of heating. This trend is expected to continue with
chances ending in a few more hours. In the meantime, a few more
showers/storms could occur. Skies are also expected to clear
tonight. Otherwise, colder tonight with lows in the upper 30s and
40s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFs - VFR ceilings expected this TAF period with clouds
expected to gradually clear tonight. Scattered showers and some
storms will continue to move across the area. The activity is
expected to diminish after sunset and end this evening. Small
hail and gusty winds possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The main forecast impact will be chances of showers and storms early
next week.

Cooler temperatures will continue through Friday as colder air
continues to fill in behind the cold front. This will quickly
move out Saturday, being replaced by ridging and southerly flow.
This will result in some rapid warming. Temperatures will peak on
Sunday with downslope flow. Trended toward a MOS blend for
Sunday`s maximum temperatures.

A shortwave is expected to move through the central plains early
Sunday, though how far south its effects will be seen is still
somewhat uncertain. The GFS maintains a more southerly track,
bringing a chance of showers and storms early in the day. However,
given the northward trend of this feature among most models, will
leave mentionable POPs out for now.

A much more substantial wave will follow Monday night into Tuesday,
bringing widespread rain chances both Tuesday and Wednesday. The
ECMWF cuts the low off early allowing rain chances to linger through
the end of the week, while the GFS moves the system through by
Thursday. Will include some low rain chances for this later
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  43  65  45  77 /  50   0   0   0
Hobart OK         42  67  45  80 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  46  68  45  81 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           39  70  45  85 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     42  66  42  78 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         46  65  44  75 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/30/30



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