419
FXUS64 KOUN 130400
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Increasing risk for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and
   localized flooding continues into Sunday.

 - Some severe weather possible today and Sunday with the primary
   threat of wind.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage and
intensity this afternoon as a shortwave trough and multiple MCVs
located over southwest Kansas and western Oklahoma move slowly east.
Expect multiple boundaries, including surface front, to act as foci
for additional development this afternoon. PWAT values of between
1.5 and 2 inches will lead to very efficient rain producing activity
and will likely include the OKC metro by late today into this
evening. With the slow motion of the activity, some isolated
locations could pick up a quick 2 to 3 inches with the heaviest
storms with more general amounts of 0.50-1.00 in.

There will also be sufficient instability (MUCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg)
for a few severe storms this afternoon as well. Large-scale wind
shear(0-6km bulk shear 20-25kts) will not be overly impressive,
keeping most of the storms more pulse-type in nature, although
locally modified/enhanced wind fields around the MCVs may allow for
more organized storms capable of larger hail as well as strong/severe
wind gusts from wet microbursts. However, the flood potential will
be the main concern as we go through the afternoon and into tonight.

May see an overall down tick in the activity overnight, but with
upper shortwave still over the area along with any MCV and weak low
level waa, should see some continuation of showers/storms, with a
shift toward the east and southeast. By this time some weekend
rainfall totals could be in excess of 4 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Although some disagreement remain in the models with respect to the
progression of the shortwave trough, NAM slows it down and keeps it
over the area through the day Monday, while many of the others
continue to show a general eastward progression. With this in mind,
will continue the trend of shifting the precip further east, mainly
impacting south-central into southeast Oklahoma Sunday. Main surface
boundary becomes more ill-defined during the day Sunday and model
QPF amounts remain rather low. However, one caveat, models do not
handle other more subtle boundaries, such as MCV, outflow,
differential heating, as well and if any of these are present on
Sunday, they could act a foci for more robust convection and heavier
rainfall. The high precipitable water values will remain high,
especially south and east of I-44. Otherwise, with the precip and
associated cloud cover, temperatures will be well below normal for
mid-July.

Some influence from upper shortwave and weak waa overnight will aid
in keeping some rain chances going Sunday night into Monday, with
highest chances across central and southern Oklahoma and north
Texas. Although no clear boundaries are present in the models,
precipitable water remain high and any activity will be slow-moving,
so some isolated heavier rainfall amounts are not out of the
question.

With some increase in insolation and less precip we should recover
some with temperatures back in the upper 80s to near 90. However it
does appear that we may stay just below seasonal norms through much
of the upcoming week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The pesky mid-level low finally begins to weaken with a general
zonal mid-level flow across the northern and central U.S. with
weak flow in the south. But the ridge does not build strongly over
the western U.S. or the Plains, so temperatures remain near or
slightly below average for this time of year. The operational
ECMWF does bring a front down into northern Oklahoma on Thursday
as a mid-level wave moves across the northern/central Plains. Even
if this occurs, the front looks to quickly weaken and/or lift back
north into the central Plains, so any significant cooling is
unlikely. But this front could serve as a focus for some storm
potential. Otherwise storm chances will depend on any wave in the
zonal flow aloft that happens to be far enough south to influence
our storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Most of our terminals should remain in the VFR category at least
through 09Z, then reduce to MVFR conditions with lowering
ceilings. There are low 30% probabilities for rain by 12Z across
some of our terminals which may also reduce briefly to IFR
conditions with lowering ceilings. Much of the current rain in the
next six hours will be across terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma
although ceilings may stay just above MVFR conditions there. All
mentions of rain should be out of the forecast by 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  69  82  69 /  80  70  50  20
Hobart OK         86  67  86  68 /  70  70  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  88  70  86  71 /  70  60  50  30
Gage OK           79  64  86  66 /  70  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  68  83  69 /  80  60  50  10
Durant OK         91  72  85  72 /  60  90  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ008-012-013-017>020-
     023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68