863
FXUS64 KOUN 241046
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

- Elevated fire conditions will continue Monday afternoon with
  warm, breezy, and dry conditions.

- Increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday
  through next weekend.

- Elevated to near-critical fire conditions may return Saturday
  across western Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north
  Texas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Light and variable winds are ongoing this morning with an ~1018
mb surface high centered across the Southern Plains. These light
and variable winds, combined with a dry air mass, is resulting in
a large variation in surface temperatures in short distances due
to local terrain effects in the planetary boundary layer.

The surface high will move to the east today, which will allow
for a return to south to southwest winds and warmer weather. These
breezy southwest winds at 15 to 20 mph, combined with relative
humidity values between 15 to 25%, will result in Elevated fire
weather conditions across most the area this afternoon. The
exception is across far southern Oklahoma and parts of western
north Texas, where the winds will be lighter. A Fire Danger
Statement (RFD) was issued from 1 PM to 6 PM for the Elevated fire
weather conditions.

As the surface pressure gradient relaxes tonight, winds will
become light and variable. As a result, another cool night is
expected with low temperatures in the 40s to near 50 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

A weak cold front will move through Tuesday with no notable cold
air advection behind it. The front will stall somewhere near or
just south of the Red River by Tuesday night.

Isentropic ascent/warm air advection, augmented by a 30 to 40
knot low-level jet above this stalled front, will likely result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Currently, the highest chance for rain is across the
southern half of Oklahoma and north Texas. Elevated instability
(MUCAPE >500 J/kg) and shear (effective bulk shear >40 knots) will
be sufficient for strong to low-end severe thunderstorms. Given
these thunderstorms will be elevated, hail will the potential
hazard with the most intense thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms
should exit southeast Oklahoma later Wednesday morning.

By Wednesday afternoon, winds will return to the south as the
stalled front dissipates (frontolysis) with continued above-
average temperatures (highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s deg F).

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to indicate a
pattern change the latter half of the week with a more active
southern jet stream with embedded shortwaves moving into the
Southern Plains.

One embedded wave is forecast to approach late Thursday into
Friday with a chance for rain; however, there remains uncertainty
on the exact latitude of the wave`s track (which will modulate the
highest chance for rainfall). Currently, the highest chance for
rain is across the southern half of the area. Another wave is
forecast to approach by the weekend; however, the dryslot may
limit rain across parts of the area. Therefore, even with the
pattern change, rain is not a guarantee (especially across the
entire area).

In addition, with the approach of these shortwaves, surface winds
will likely be stronger. As a result, fire weather conditions
will likely increase across parts of the area. Currently, the
highest chance for this is across western Oklahoma and adjacent
parts of north Texas on Saturday due to the aforementioned
dryslot.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. Variable winds early this morning
will become southwesterly into the afternoon. A weak front will
cause winds to briefly be out of the northwest this evening across
northwest Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  48  80  53 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         78  47  82  51 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  80  50  87  55 /   0   0  10  40
Gage OK           79  42  79  46 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     76  47  79  50 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         78  52  85  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13