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000
FXUS64 KOUN 161123
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light somewhat variable winds should continue
through the day. Some widely scattered showers and storms are
possible during the day, though chances are too low for mention in
the TAFs. Chances for rain and thunder increase this evening
across central and southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Ceilings are
expected to lower overnight.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Precipitation continues to dwindle over our area. Some lightning
is still being observed over SE OK but this too should dissipate
by sunrise. Cloud cover and continued rain chances throughout the
day under an upper low should keep it unseasonably cool this
afternoon, especially across NW OK. Expect the highest
thunderstorm chances near the Red River by late this afternoon and
evening, and then as far north as I-40 tonight.

Rain chances will decrease for most of the area by Monday under a
mid to upper shortwave ridge, although high plains moist
convection will move eastward during the overnight hours into Tue
morning with a mid level shortwave trough. Localized flooding will
be the main threat today through early Tue, although a few strong
to severe storms may produce strong wind gusts as well.

At least low chances of rainfall will continue through late Wed
night thanks to yet another mid to upper shortwave traversing the
plains trough within WNW flow. Solutions diverge a bit by next
weekend with the synoptic pattern but generally have an upper
ridge present over the ESE CONUS and zonal to WSW flow aloft over
the Southern Plains. Max temps will peak on Friday afternoon with
fairly stout SSW 850 mb flow present under higher heights. Some
locations across SW OK and western north TX will likely near or
exceed the triple digits. The GFS then suggests a cold front
stalling somewhere over our region Saturday but confidence is low
right now so only included mostly SChc PoPs. If it is correct,
flooding rains will again be possible by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  65  84  67 /  30  50  20  40
Hobart OK         84  65  87  68 /  30  40  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  85  68  88  71 /  30  60  20  40
Gage OK           79  60  84  64 /  40  20  10  50
Ponca City OK     80  65  84  66 /  50  30  20  20
Durant OK         84  68  84  70 /  70  70  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/03/14