Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

A decent late season cold front will bring much needed relief
from an early dose of summer-like heat. The cold front, which is
moving faster than most models are forecasting, will push through
northwest Oklahoma by sunrise, and will continue to push
southward through the day. Have trended down on daytime highs for
much of northern and western Oklahoma and western north Texas. By
late afternoon (5-6 pm), widely scattered thunderstorms should
develop along and near the front (south central/southwest Oklahoma
and western north Texas. Overall, mid to upper level winds will
be weak for mid May, but high to extreme instability will likely
result in severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong
damaging winds. Thunderstorms that form during the late
afternoon/early evening may gradually weaken in intensity during
the mid to late evening.

Models differ on the potential for elevated storms during the late
evening and overnight, primarily across central and north central
Oklahoma.  It is possible that only weak convective showers will
form below a capping inversion, but there is some indication that
strong to severe storms are possible.  With this in mind will keep
a marginal risk in place for parts of central and north central

Despite the earlier frontal timing, temperatures will still be hot
with very dry air across southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas this afternoon. This area will be more prone to active fire
behavior before cooler and somewhat more humid conditions arrive
for the weekend.


(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

Unseasonably cool weather is expected this weekend and into early
next week behind the cold front moving through the area today.
Even as the surface high moves from the Great Plains toward the
mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday, the return to a southerly
component of the surface winds will still be recycling the cooler
airmass as the front will have moved off the Texas Gulf Coast.
Meanwhile one longwave mid-level trough approaches the Plains on
Monday with a second one amplifying as it approaches the Plains on
Tuesday night. This will help push another cold front into the
area and provide cloud cover and higher precipitation chances
keeping the temperatures on the cool side. With this series of
troughs, precipitation chances increase Sunday night with
precipitation expected to become widespread Monday and persist
through Tuesday. This last longwave may cut off briefly, but even
if it does not, is expected to only move slowly over the Plains
through mid-week as a series of shortwaves move into the base of
the trough. Precipitation chances into Wednesday and Thursday are
a bit more uncertain as the longwave will still support lift, but
the low-level moisture will eventually be pushed southeast of the
area by yet another cold front.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

A cold front will bring a wind shift to all sites this morning
through the early afternoon. Scattered low clouds may develop
at OKC/OUN this morning, but MVFR ceilings are not expected.
Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along the front late
this afternoon and evening, but will mainly stay southeast of
all sites. Overnight VFR to MVFR ceilings should develop with
a chance of showers and storms across north central (PNC/SWO)
and central Oklahoma (OKC/OUN). The front may briefly
lift to the north bringing a south wind to SPS this evening, but
will surge back to the north by early Saturday morning.


Oklahoma City OK  87  60  66  48 /  10  20  10  20
Hobart OK         91  58  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 101  68  84  52 /  30  30   0  10
Gage OK           78  50  62  41 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  56  62  45 /   0  40  20  20
Durant OK         91  71  88  54 /  10  20  30  40




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