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000
FXUS64 KOUN 101707
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

A storm complex continued to move east and southeast across the
area this morning. This will have significant implications on how
things will evolve this afternoon and evening as well. We continue
to see marginally severe weather with this line, mainly with wind
gusts to around 50 to 55 mph, but every once in a while individual
storms intensify to produce some hail as well, with a least
borderline severe hail reported near Isabella in Major County this
morning. This area of storms will continue to move across the area
this morning. None of the models have been particularly good at
realizing how widespread and how far west this convention would
be, except perhaps for the NAM/hi-res NAM. This convection has
also produced widespread convective outflow that is pushing ahead
of the storms themselves. While we expect to see some strong and
marginally severe storms from this, the outflow airmass from these
thunderstorms will also stabilize the environment making
redevelopment less likely this afternoon and evening. Of course,
there will be some point where the southwestward push of the
outflow boundary stalls out and could be a focus of storm
redevelopment and perhaps another round of severe weather this
afternoon into this evening. The most likely location for this
stalled outflow boundary would be from somewhere near or south of
the DFW metroplex northwestward into our north Texas counties, but
the specific location will really depend on the evolution of this
morning`s storms. If we do get some redevelopment this afternoon,
instability will be sufficient for severe thunderstorms again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Will keep this short due to the ongoing thunderstorms. We
generally keep northwesterly flow aloft through the weekend and
into Monday keeping the potential up for storms to move off the
High Plains toward the area. As we get into mid week, the upper
pattern flattens with a more zonal pattern with a series of
troughs progged to move across the Plains in the mid to late week
that will give higher chances of storms as these move through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

VFR conditions to continue.

Showers and storms have moved east of the TAF sites this afternoon
with only a few mid/high clouds remaining. Expect this to continue
tonight into the day Sunday. Will retain a low chance for some
activity to impact both PNC/SWO late tonight into Sunday morning
as convection drops south out of Kansas. Southeast winds will
remain light outside of southwest where some gusts to near 20kts
possible this afternoon. A weak surface front will move south
overnight into Sunday morning with wind shifting to the north
behind the boundary. Gusts to near 20kts possible by late
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  67  88  62 /  70  30  10  10
Hobart OK         92  65  91  62 /  30  20   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  67  97  66 /  20  10   0  10
Gage OK           88  62  84  58 /  20  20   0  20
Ponca City OK     86  66  83  58 /  60  30  10  10
Durant OK         91  68  95  66 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...30