721
FXUS64 KOUN 222256
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 553 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

- Elevated fire conditions expected each afternoon into early
  next week.

- Increasing chances for precipitation Tuesday through next
  weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Southerly surface winds this afternoon ahead of the dryline will
give way to increased low-level moisture from the Gulf. Despite the
increased low-level moisture across portions north Texas and into
southern Oklahoma, dry air is still expected across the northern
half of Oklahoma and portions of far western north Texas this
afternoon. Breezy southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph will continue to give way to elevated to near-critical
fire weather concerns across the aforementioned area of drier air.
Temperatures will also warm to above-normal today with highs in
the 70s to 80s with mid-level moisture at the base of a weak
shortwave trough brings a swath of high clouds across Oklahoma
this afternoon.

Tonight, the surface low will transition eastward across northern
Oklahoma with a small chance for very light rain showers along the
warm front in north central Oklahoma. The better chances for a weak
elevated thunderstorm appear to be farther east into northeast
Oklahoma, but an isolated storm cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Ahead of the cold front Sunday morning across south-central
Oklahoma, there is a slight chance for warm advection very light
rain showers. The cold front will be through most of Oklahoma by mid-
morning Sunday with breezy north winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts up
to 35 to 40 mph possible. This shallow weak front will bring in dry
air behind it (minimum RH values around 15 to 20 percent) and with
temperatures still rising to near-normal (60s to 70s) by the
afternoon. The breezy north winds coupled with the dry airmass will
give way to elevated to near-critical fire danger across much of the
area. Post-frontal temperatures Sunday night under mostly clear
skies and radiational cooling will dip into the mid to upper 30s
into the lower 40s.

The surface ridge will translate southeast across Oklahoma Monday
with light and variable winds. Subsidence and a return to southerly
flow with mostly sunny skies will give way to warm above-normal
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Continued warm, generally above-average temperatures are expected
through next week with any significant cool air remaining to the
northeast of the Southern Plains as a longwave trough develops
across the Great Lakes region.

A weak cold front will move through late Tuesday, but no
significant cold air advection is forecast behind this front.
Isentropic ascent/warm air advection above this cold front will
result in a 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

There is the potential of pattern change toward late week/next
weekend with a southwest trough ejecting into the Plains. While
there remains differences on the timing of the trough, this system
may give us a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Depending on
the magnitude of instability, there may even be a risk of strong
to severe storms based on the synoptic-scale pattern.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. The exception is MVFR ceilings
possible early Sunday at KDUA. Southerly winds will shift towards
the north as a cold front moves across the area later tonight into
Sunday morning. LLWS possible at a few TAF sites. Some
sprinkles/light rain showers could affect KPNC/KSWO/KDUA but
chances are too low for mention in TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  68  43  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         50  69  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  73  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           44  66  36  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     52  68  39  77 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         62  77  46  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25