973
FXUS64 KOUN 231842
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
142 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

 - Thunderstorm chances continue into the holiday weekend with a
chance of severe storms each day

 - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold
front Sunday into Monday

 - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

The forecast for the rest of the day remains nebulous at best for
convection. Stable billow clouds continue to transition into a
cumulus field in west central Oklahoma, so destabilization won`t be
an issue. Perhaps more of concern for storm chances will be the
veering of 700 mb flow, which will increase 700 mb temps to about
14C across the dryline. A few supercells should still pop in the
eastern Texas panhandle tonight, but they will need to congeal cold
pools and surge eastward to make it into our area with any punch
given those toasty 700s.

Storms will develop in Kansas this evening and move southeastward
into northeast Oklahoma late tonight. Given the amount of
instability and the veering of the LLJ, a forward-propagating MCS
looks likely. There`s a good chance that the western side of this
MCS clips north central into central Oklahoma. Wind gusts up to 70
mph are possible with that line.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Memorial Day weekend starts off with about 30 knots of flow
rounding a shortwave ridge across Texas and the the promise of more
storms on Saturday and Sunday. There are quite a few regimes, so
let`s try to tackle them in chronological order.

The first regime to watch will be the remnants of that northeastern
Oklahoma cluster of storms tomorrow morning. CAMS don`t depict
redevelop/reintensification across the western fringe of the MCS,
but that`s also a well-known weakness of CAMS. With MUCAPE
increasing to above 3,000 J/kg by late morning in central Oklahoma,
it wouldn`t be a surprise to see a southward-propagating extension
of the MCS or new storm development along the outflow boundary.
These storms would likely be outflow-dominant and possess a risk for
damaging winds and severe hail.

To the west of this storm complex/outflow system, wherever that may
be, moisture return tomorrow will be aided by development of a
surface low in the northeastern Panhandles. This low will be shunted
southward by a sagging cold front. Somewhere on the Southern Plains
tomorrow, there will be a triple point between the composite
outflow/cold front and dryline. This will be a focal area for
supercell development with a risk for very large hail and tornadoes.

Behind the cold front, the chance for showers/storms/heavy rain will
begin tomorrow afternoon and last right through the day on Sunday. A
30-40 knot LLJ will continue to support isentropic ascent in this
region tomorrow night and early Sunday. Given this, the front will
likely continue to sag south through the day Sunday. Heavy rainfall
and flooding is possible, especially north of the boundary.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Another strong upper wave moves through Monday, allowing chances for
showers and thunderstorms to continue into the day. With the
previous front clearing the area, Monday should be cooler (upper 60s
to upper 80s) under mostly cloudy skies. At this range, uncertainty
becomes more synoptically driven, suggesting more reliance on
ensemble guidance.

Midweek will remain relatively cool (70s) with reduced precipitation
chances. At this point, synoptic uncertainty becomes high.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

In addition to the strong thunderstorms approaching KPNC/KSWO area
currently, another round of severe thunderstorms (accompanied by
MVFR conditions) are likely for KPNC/KSWO late Friday night into
early Saturday morning. There is a lower chance of storms
developing off the dryline late evening and affecting western
Oklahoma and north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  87  66  83 /  40  30  40  60
Hobart OK         66  94  65  85 /  30  20  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  71  95  70  91 /  20  20  20  30
Gage OK           59  82  57  74 /  20  20  50  40
Ponca City OK     62  75  61  73 /  90  50  70  70
Durant OK         73  89  74  89 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01