008
FXUS63 KPAH 152357
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
657 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms continue
  through the weekend into next week. Strongest storms pose an
  isolated threat for damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and
  localized flash flooding is possible.

- Heat indices will climb over 100 degrees tomorrow through the
  weekend. Some days may exceed Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

There is very little change to the ongoing forecast this cycle with
a generally weak pattern aloft that features a weak shortwave trof
over the Plains and a weak 40 ish knot jet over our region. This
coupled with juicy Gulf moisture, giving us PWATs around 2.1 to 2.2
makes for some scattered afternoon showers and storms that sport
locally heavy rainfall that could cause localized flash flooding.

Wednesday will be very similar to today as the shortwave trof moves
northeast and gets reabsorbed into the flow over the Great Lakes.
Behind it is another shortwave trof over the Northern Plains that`s
pulling a front through that should stay just north of our area by
Thursday. With mid to upper 70s dew points starting tomorrow, heat
indices will surpass 100 and could near Heat Advisory criteria,
particularly on Thursday, but possible through the weekend. Daily
chances for scattered showers and storms remain possible in the
afternoons through the weekend and into early next week as the
pattern aloft stays rather stagnant.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

SHRA/TSRA will continue over the next couple of hours with visby
and ceiling restrictions possible in/near TS. Otherwise mid to
high level clouds are expected overnight. Patchy fog is
possible but no mention at the terminals this forecast cycle.
Brief potential for MVFR cigs at MVN tonight but should see
recovery back to VFR by 12Z. There may be isolated convection on
Wednesday but at this time coverage is low enough to keep
mention out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...AD