741
FXUS61 KAKQ 100148
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
948 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push through the region later today
through tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
region. An upper level trough will bring another round of
showers and storms later Friday into Friday night. A chance for
showers continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend.
Dry and warmer weather to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Scattered rain showers are possible tonight across northern
  portions of the forecast area.

A boundary is draped across the region this evening, roughly
located right along/near I-64. The front will gradually try to
lift back to the north as a warm front later tonight into early
Friday morning. Have seen scattered showers develop north of the
front this evening, but have not seen any thunder due to
limited instability. CAMs have PoPs increasing a bit over the
next couple of hours north of I-64 and especially over the MD
Eastern Shore as weak low pressure rides along the boundary.
Otherwise, much of the area along and south of I-64 should
remain dry through the night. Overnight lows range from the mid
50s N to mid 60s S. In addition, still watching for the
possibility for some patchy fog/low clouds over mainly the
Eastern Shore after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Another round of showers/storms likely Friday afternoon and
  evening. While widespread severe is not expected, a few
  stronger storms are possible.

- Scattered showers possible Saturday with an upper-
  level disturbance.

Friday starts off mainly dry (with some lingering low clouds and
light rain possible over the MD eastern shore). Scattered showers
are expected to redevelop as the upper trough dives SE and swings
through. The sfc front will also push S through the day. The potent
nature of the shortwave argues for continuing to trend PoPs up, with
60-70% in the forecast for most of the area now. Forecast soundings
show decently steep mid-level lapse rates w/ the cold pool aloft,
along with strong deep-layer shear (50-60 kt). The one caveat (and
likely limiting factor) will be the availability of any sfc
instability. At this time, the highest CAPE is currently forecast to
our S, though ~1000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE may develop with some
higher dew points pooling along the sfc front. CAMs actually show
quite widespread convection, with several of the experimental MPAS
CAMs being quite aggressive w/ convective coverage. Additionally,
they show a predominantly cellular storm mode, arguing for the
potential for hail. The wind threat would be highest across the S
where the low-level lapse rates are steeper. Strong low-level shear
would also suggest a conditional tornado threat, given a favorable
storm mode and low-level thermodynamics. Highs on Fri will show a
large range, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s MD ern shore to the
low 80s interior NE NC. Temps gradually fall in the late aftn behind
the front. Drying out later Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper
40s W to the lower 50s E.

The weekend continues to look a bit unsettled, especially across the
N/NE portion of the CWA as yet another shortwave drops SE from the
wrn Great Lakes, and pushes across the mid Atlantic late Sat through
Sunday. This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with
low chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading
through the region Sat night/early Sunday. Steep lapse rates again
suggest a few tstms are possible, though this environment will be
much cooler than the past few days. Cannot rule out some small hail
in the strongest cores (especially NW). Cool Sat with highs in the
low-mid 60s NE to around 70F over the SW. The airmass will be fairly
dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (generally 0.10" or
less with a little more possible across the NE). Will have PoPs to
~50% over the N late Sat/Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only
~15-20% in NC. Chilly Sat night w/ upper 40s NW to low 50s SE. A
similar story is expected Sunday as the core of the upper low sits
just N of the area. This will focus additional showers across the MD
Eastern Shore, with lower chances extending SW into the Northern
Neck and Piedmont. Highs Sun a little warmer and in the mid 60s ern
shore to low-mid 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure situates over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through
Monday night, favoring dry weather. Highs Monday warm back in the
upper 70s with overnight lows in the upper 50s-low 60s. The high
moves offshore Tuesday, with southerly flow funneling moist air
towards the region. Unsettled conditions and above average rainfall
are therefore expected later Tuesday through most of next week as
multiple southern stream systems move ENE towards the mid-Atlantic.
Thunderstorms are also possible mid to late week. Highs Tue warmest
across the E (where precip holds off longest) and in the upper 70s,
with lower 70s W. Temps next Wed and Thu hover a few degrees
above/below 80F w/ overnight lows around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR at all terminals to start the forecast period. A frontal
boundary is situated roughly right along the I-64 corridor,
winds are light and variable near the front. To the S of the
boundary, winds are southerly. To the N of the boundary, winds
are E/NE. Widely scattered showers have developed just along and
north of this boundary. While a stray thunderstorm cannot be
completely ruled out, storm chances have diminished compared to
earlier. Rain chances begin to decrease shortly after sunset,
lingering the longest at SBY. IFR CIGs (and potentially VSBY)
are forecast at SBY late tonight in BR/FG. IFR CIGs likely
likely linger through the remainder of the forecast period at
SBY. The front drops further S early Friday morning,
potentially serving to focus additional showers/storms for
Friday afternoon/evening (potentially leading to flight
restrictions).

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR most of Saturday, but another chance
for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry conditions return
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

-Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories have been issued north of Parramore Is.
from late Friday morning through Friday night.

-Additional Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Friday night
into early Saturday.

A stationary front lingers over the Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn,
with the wind ENE 10-15kt N of the boundary, and SW 5-10kt S of the
front. Seas are primarily 2-3ft. This boundary will linger over the
area tonight through Friday, before dropping S Friday night as low
pressure develops and tracks NE off the NC Outer Banks. A NE wind is
expected to increase to 15-20kt N of Chincoteague Friday with seas
building to 5-6ft. Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore
Is. beginning 10 AM Friday and continuing through 6 AM Saturday at
this time, but this will likely need to be extended. Otherwise, the
wind is expected to become N and increase to 15-20kt Friday night
into early Saturday, with seas building to 4-6ft and 2-3ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. Additional SCAs are likely Friday night into early
Saturday.

A secondary front tracks across the coast later Saturday
aftn/evening. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and
then shifts to NW late Saturday night/early Sunday. The current
forecast is sub-SCA, although some guidance suggests low-end SCA
conditions are possible over the Ches. Bay. High pressure builds
over the coast later Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system
and cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

-Key Message:

-Minor tidal flooding is possible during high tide Friday night into
early Saturday.

Another elevated astronomical high tide is forecast for tonight
into early Saturday. At this time, tidal anomalies have been steady
and the past flood tide was relatively weak. Therefore, water levels
are largely expected to remain below minor flood thresholds for
tonight/early Saturday, with the exception of some the more
sensitive locations. An increasing NE then N wind Friday night into
early Saturday will bring the potential for minor tidal flooding
with yet another elevated astronomical high tide.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...