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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260114
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
914 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Northeast
through Friday, before shifting offshore this weekend. A
significant warm up begins Sunday and last through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Thursday...

Forecast is in good shape with minor adjustments to temps and
dew points to match observations. Increased overnight lows a
degree or two based on more cloud cover. Lows range from the mid
40s SW to the upper 30s for the MD Eastern Shore where cloud
cover will be thinnest.

Previous Discussion:
Strong 1031mb high pressure is centered over Lake Ontario this
afternoon. Meanwhile, what remains of the cold front that passed
through the area yesterday and last night is now well off the
Southeast coast. What we are left with is decent onshore winds
across the mid-Atlantic this afternoon, which has caused
considerable cloud cover from roughly the I-64 corridor on north
and east to the coast. In addition, temps are much lower today
than they were yesterday, generally in the 50s near the coast
to nr 70 over south-central VA. For the most part, am expecting
this onshore flow to persist tonight although it will be
weakening. Clouds will be stubborn to break up overnight and am
expecting low clouds to persist into Friday morning. The only
exception may be the lower MD Eastern Shore where clouds should
begin to break prior to sunrise. It will be a chilly night with
lows in the low/mid 40s inland, with mid to upper 40s at the
coast. Inland portions of the lower Maryland Eastern Shore
should see clearing overnight and with decoupling winds, could
see lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning. This could
result in patchy frost in typically cooler, more sheltered
areas, but don`t think it will be widespread enough for a Frost
Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure will settle over New England on Friday, keeping
a weaker onshore flow regime in place. This portends another
cool day Friday, with highs similar to those of today (50s at
the coast, low to mid 60s inland). Look for a mostly sunny sky
near the coast and a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the
Piedmont. It will be a little bit milder Friday night as the
airmass modifies, with lows staying in the mid 40s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

A high amplitude upper ridge axis will be in place over the
eastern seaboard to begin the day on Saturday, with surface high
pressure settling in just off the New England/northeast coast.
Meanwhile, a low pressure center will weaken as it drifts north
across the upper midwest, sending a warm front across the Ohio
River Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday
morning. It may extend just far enough south to give us a slight
chance of a rain shower, particularly across the northwest
section of the CWA. Elsewhere, expect a partly to mostly cloudy
sky and slightly higher temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees inland, and in the low to mid 60s along the
coast.

As high pressure builds offshore and settles in the western
Atlantic late in the weekend through early next week, expect
temperatures to quickly trend back up above normal through the
period; highs jump into the 70s along the coast to low 80s
inland on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upr 80s for most
locations away from the immediate coast on Monday through
Wednesday, before the upper ridge finally starts breaking down
by the middle of next week. The next front approaches from the
west Mon/Tue next week. Our next chance for showers and isolated
storms will be possible with the frontal passage itself by
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 810 PM EDT Thursday...

Onshore flow continues to bring low stratus to the SE terminals
(ORF/PHI/ECG). Mix of MVFR and IFR at these sites to start the
evening. Flight categories are likely bounce around for a few
hours before settling into IFR at ECG and ORF. Will show
prevailing MVFR CIGs at PHF. MVFR CIGs eventually spread toward
RIC by late evening. Expect CIGs to improve toward sunrise with
VFR prevailing at all sites by late morning. NE winds generally
5-10 kt tonight with some gusts 15-20 kt after mid morning
Friday.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for the lower bay, lower James, Currituck
Sound, and all coastal water zones

- A prolonged period of elevated seas/waves due to onshore flow is
expected into Friday night.

Large high pressure situated over the NE CONUS is building in over
the local area this afternoon as last night`s cold front pushes
south and away from the area. There is enough of a pressure gradient
between these features to allow for gusty onshore winds today.
Latest obs show NE winds of 10-15kt in the upper bay and upper
rivers with 15-20kt elsewhere. Buoy obs show seas of 5-7 ft
across the coastal waters. Winds will gradually diminish to
10-15kt in the bay/rivers and ~15kt over the coastal waters
through the evening and overnight as the pressure gradient
slackens. These conditions are expected to continue through the
day Friday, then diminishing further Friday night. Continuous
onshore flow means that seas will be slow to comes down under
5ft. Therefore, SCAs for the coastal waters (and mouth of the
bay) likely continue into late Friday evening.


Regarding the rest of the forecast period, high pressure will build
into the area this weekend before being suppressed to the south
later in the week. Onshore flow persists through Sat as the high
will be centered to the N. As the high pushes offshore and then
south, the winds become southerly Sun, then SW Mon-Wed, at 10-15kt.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 845 PM EDT Thursday...

-Added a Coastal Flood statement for the middle peninsula and
 northern Neck to cover the upcoming high tide cycle. Water
 levels may potentially reach minor flood thresholds (or at
 least should be withing a few tenths) at Lewisetta, Windmill
 Pt, West Point, and Tappahannock.



A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to last into the
weekend. Mainly nuisance flooding is possible across the lower
bay, James River, VA Atlantic- facing beaches, eastern Currituck
County, and Dorchester County with tonight`s high tide. As
such, Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for these
locations. Locally minor flooding is possible along the S/W
portion of the James River during this evening`s high tide due
to a favorable fetch of swell given NE winds. Smithfield will
likely reach minor flood stage (potentially high-end minor) with
Sewell`s Point also showing the potential for reaching minor
flood stage. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued
for these areas.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for VAZ089-093-
     095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/RHR
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AM/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ