Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
000
FXUS64 KJAN 211120 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
620 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Today and Tonight:
As we begin the short term period this morning, an area of
showers with some embedded elevated thunder, is moving east
through the forecast area. The more moderate to heavier rainfall
is located over areas along and south of the Interstate 20
corridor, with lighter rainfall seen north of the Interstate 20.
All of this activity is associated with a mid/upper level
disturbance, embedded in zonal flow aloft, moving east across the
region.
Through the remainder of the morning, as this disturbance continues
moving east and into Alabama, convection will steadily come to an
end from west to east across the forecast area. While clouds will be
a little slower to exit the CWA, the bulk of the rainfall will be
east and out of the forecast area by mid-day. Skies will eventually
clear later in the day and into this evening, with quiet and
noticeably cooler conditions expected tonight as high pressure
builds into the region from the west.
As far as temperatures are concerned during the period, breezy
northerly winds today will continue to advect cooler drier air into
the forecast area. As a result, look for well below normal
temperatures both today and tonight, as highs this afternoon top out
in the low and middle 60s. Then for tonight, chilly conditions will
be felt as temperatures early Monday morning bottom out from the
upper 30s to the middle 40s. /19/
Monday through Saturday:
After another chilly start to the day on Monday, we`ll see a general
warming trend through the end of the work week. An upper-level ridge
will steadily build and shifts eastward toward the Mississippi River
Valley by late week, with height rises supporting this trend. A
shortwave trough moving through the Ohio River Valley midweek may
cause a weak cold front to dip into the region, but the surface high
with this system will remain well to the north, and the glancing
blow from the front should have minimal effect on our weather. Some
guidance continue to hint at precip around the frontal boundary, but
better chances for any showers or thunderstorms in our forecast area
will likely be associated with a low pressure system in the Plains
on Friday. Models are not in agreement that storms make it to our
CWA, but there is at least a chance in the Delta region Friday into
the weekend time frame. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024
MVFR/IFR flight categories this morning, will gradually give way
to VFR flight categories areawide this afternoon as both rain and
low stratus exit east of the area. VFR flight categories will then
prevail at area TAF sites through the afternoon and into the
overnight hours. Winds will be breezy from the north between 10-
15 knots today, with a few gusts between 20-25 knots possible.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 65 42 67 44 / 20 0 0 0
Meridian 65 40 69 42 / 30 0 0 0
Vicksburg 65 41 68 44 / 10 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 65 44 70 44 / 30 0 0 0
Natchez 65 42 68 44 / 10 0 0 0
Greenville 62 43 66 46 / 10 0 0 0
Greenwood 63 41 67 45 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19