055
FXUS61 KRLX 131725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation chances return to the region late tonight with
showers lasting lasting into Wednesday. Mainly dry Thursday,
then unsettled for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Transient ridging with and associated deep dry air gives way to deep
southwesterly flow as ridging shifts east this evening. This
yields increasing column moisture and increasing precipitation
chances late tonight into Tuesday as both warm advection down
low and embedded shortwaves up high move through the region.
Largely think any widespread accumulation precipitation holds
off until after midnight. The initial swath of more widespread
showers exits to the northeast by late morning with additional
pop-up activity possible through the late afternoon. Couldn`t
completely rule out a stronger storm Tuesday afternoon if more
significant breaks to sunshine can be realized prior to the
approach of a rather weak northern stream low, but deep layer
shear 30KTs or less would generally limit this. Currently the
region is only outlooked for general thunder by SPC.

The aforementioned approaching low moves overhead Tuesday
evening with steering flow becoming weak to very weak. Some
potential will exist for slow moving storms focused along a
remnant frontal boundary/developing occluded boundary in the
vicinity of the Middle Ohio Valley late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. In our fully greened up state, most areas should
be able to handle some heavier persistent downpours. Areas
across our north do have the most moisture in the soils from
heavier rainfall a few days ago however, and if these persistent
downpours were to linger over some of these spots could see
some issues start to emerge with a quick 1.5 to 2 inches in
spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 PM Monday...

Low pressure will move over the area Wednesday, bringing continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low 500-mb heights will lead
to a cooler day for most with high temperatures in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Severe weather is not expected due to weak wind profiles
and a lack of instability. The threat of flooding will be low, but
areas that see repeated downpours may be at risk of localized
flooding.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday with northwest
flow returning. This should bring mainly dry weather Thursday with a
small chance of showers in the mountains. The return of afternoon
sunshine should help temperatures rebound into the upper 70s and
lower 80s across the lowlands. The mountains will remain cooler as
cloud cover hangs around a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1236 PM Monday...

Another low pressure system and its associated warm front will
approach from the west Friday, bringing the return of showers by
Friday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain
in the forecast for next weekend with upper-level low pressure
lingering over the mid-Atlantic region. We are currently forecasting
near-normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, with the return of
summer-like warmth by Sunday. However, confidence in the overall
forecast remains low at this time, and everything will depend
on the evolution of the upper- level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are expected through late tonight/early Tuesday
morning. Clouds progressively build into the region from the south
this afternoon into the overnight as transient ridging exits to the
east with increasing southwesterly flow. Expect virga by late
tonight with showers beginning to reach the ground after midnight
this evening. As the column progressively moistens, expect
widespread MVFR ceilings to develop heading into Tuesday morning.
Some heavier rainshowers may briefly reduce visibility under 6SM.

Winds generally under 10KTs and southerly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in heavier
rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP