Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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796 FXUS61 KRLX 131059 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 659 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry and mostly pleasant weather today, amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns tonight lasting into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 550 AM Monday... Made updates to temperatures as valley locations have decoupled and are seeing the lowest temperatures compared to ridge tops. Temperatures in the lower 30s are being reported on weather stations across Nicholas, Pocahontas, Randolph and Webster counties. That said, continued the SPS for frost until 830 this morning for these locations. Models are starting to slow the timing for the onset of rain showers tonight by an hour or two, still starting it before midnight though. The HRRR does through some scattered showers across the area later this afternoon ahead of the main batch of showers that will arrive from the SW before midnight. QPF has also backed off quite a bit as well, but still seeing PWATs between 1.25" and 1.50" on HiRes model data early Tuesday morning, so will have to monitor trends closely. As of 200 AM Monday... Expecting another cool morning with surface high pressure to our east invading the area. Most locations have already decoupled or will within the next few hours due to stagnant air flow from proximity to the high. Patchy fog along the sheltered river valleys across the coalfields of VA/WV, metro valley and the mountains. Radiational cooling also allowing for cool spots to see low temperatures in the lower 40s across the lowlands; upper 30s in the mountains. Pockets of frost will be possible in the mountain valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph counties. An SPS has been hoisted to cover this as frost not expected to be widespread enough for an advisory. Skies will remain mostly clear, outside of some passing cirrus from the west through the morning. High temperatures look to be above normal today due to southerly flow picking up this afternoon. Highs will be in the low 80s across the lowlands, 70s to around 80 in the mountains. Expecting more cloud coverage later this afternoon with lowering ceilings, especially this evening when an occluding low moves out of the Mississippi River Valley and over the eastern Midwest. That said, PoPs increase from SW to NE later this evening as it slowly makes its way towards us. PoPs become likely by midnight with scattered showers, and even slight chances for an isolated thunderstorm across the coalfields and the eastern mountains. Tuesday looks to start out rather wet after having a few decent, albeit chilly mornings. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... Wet weather will persist through the middle of the work week as an upper-level trough slowly moves east across the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic, while a surface low and front linger over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the period, but are forecast to be most numerous from later Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon as the warm front goes stationary over or just north of the CWA and the upper-level trough gets closer. With the forecast passage of the upper trough and the surface low and cold front late Wednesday, most shower activity should start to taper off or move away to the east Wednesday night. WPC did maintain our area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and Tuesday night. While model precipitable water values aren`t anything crazy (1.25-1.50 inches, maybe some higher pockets), the potential for cumulative impacts of multiple heavy showers or t-storms could lead to some issues. The storm total forecast from late Mon night through Wed night would have 1.00-1.50 inches across most of the area, but of course some higher pockets will be possible depending on any potential training or repeated hits. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 325 AM Monday... Transient upper-level ridging should allow for mostly dry conditions across the area on Thursday. That said, with enough boundary layer moisture and some light upslope flow, a few terrain-driven showers or t-storms are possible in the afternoon. Models seem to be in reasonable agreement on the passage of another front with some showers and storms Friday afternoon or night, with some ridging expected afterwards. However, models diverge over the weekend with how `clean` or `dirty` the ridge may be, thus some chance POPs are maintained across the region due to this uncertainty. Temps look to stay near to a bit above normal during the period, but we`ll have to keep an eye on the strength of the Friday front to see if that may drop temps a bit for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 AM Monday... VFR through the period, outside of patchy river valley fog this morning. EKN is reporting IFR restrictions due to fog; CRW is reporting VCFG but winds are picking up and not expecting major impacts, still allowed TEMPO groups and VCFG to cover scattered nature of fog. Expecting return to VFR by ~13Z for any sites experiencing restrictions. High clouds will filter through this morning and will be SCT at times, before becoming BKN by afternoon; SCT mid-level clouds due to daytime heating will be likely as well. CIGs will gradually start lowering SW to NE after ~20Z as a disturbance makes its way toward the region. VFR still expected at least until ~06Z Tuesday. Light to calm S`rly winds this morning will pick up at a light to gentle breeze by afternoon. Winds will be breezy at times in the mountains later today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...LTC