000
FXUS61 KRLX 271843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north of the area today, continuing a
warming trend that leads to hot temperatures Sunday and Monday.
Next chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Certainly a beautiful day out there with filtered sunshine and
temperatures currently in the upper 70s in the lowlands and the
60s-70s in the mountains. Dry weather should continue through
the remainder of the day with just a slight chance of an
isolated shower or thunderstorm due to weak energy aloft.
Another sunny and warm day is expected Sunday as the ridge aloft
strengthens. Highs will reach the middle 80s in the lowlands
and the 70s-80s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

Under the strong influence of high pressure and S-SW`ly flow,
we`ll remain unseasonably warm through the short-term, with
lower elevation highs from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees.
Highs on Monday are currently forecast to get close to records
for most of our climate sites - please see the climate section
below for a list of Monday records vs. the current forecast.

Clear skies are expected to start Sunday night, with some fair-
weather cumulus then developing during the day on Monday. We can
expect to see some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, work
into the Mid-Ohio Valley region Monday evening and night as a
weakening front approaches from the west. With greater moisture
availability and modest instability during the day on Tuesday,
more widespread showers and storms are anticipated. However,
with only 25-30kts of 0-6km shear expected over the area, severe
storms are not expected, though some could maintain themselves
for a while with the modest shear and CAPE. The increased precip
and cloud cover, along with the week front, may keep most of the
area in the 70s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

The weak front looks to either wash out across the area or skirt
by to the north Tuesday night. As it does so, a few showers may
initially linger over WV and VA, especially in and near the
mountains, but they are forecast to dissipate by midnight or
soon after. We`ll be fully under the influence of high pressure
centered over the Southeast US for Wednesday and Thursday, and
temps will respond accordingly. Lowland highs on Wednesday look
to be in the low to mid 80s, and most areas will tack on about
5 more degrees to those highs for Thursday. Even the mountains
will be mostly into the 70s on Thursday, in a sure sign that
summer is on the way.

A few isolated showers are possible over the higher terrain on
Wednesday and Thursday. by later Thursday afternoon, a trough
moving into the Midwest may allow for some shower and
thunderstorm activity to trigger across our western counties.
While the global models do show some instability across the
area, we`re far enough away from any appreciable shear
associated with the trough that severe storms don`t appear to be
a concern at this time. Showers and storms may then persist
across the area through Friday, but again, as best we can tell
as of now for a Day 7 forecast, severe storms don`t appear in
the mix. The highs on Friday may drop a bit compared to Thurs,
but that is likely owing largely to the expectation of some
ongoing precip across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Expect a mixture of high stratocumulus and low altocumulus
through the rest of today with a slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm. The chances are low enough to exclude any mention
of rain from the TAFs at this time. Overnight, we just expect
high cirrus clouds with calm-to-light winds. VFR conditions will
continue into Sunday.

Winds will occasionally gust from the southwest at 15-25kts this
afternoon with diminishing surface winds after sunset. Watch for
low-level wind shear early Sunday morning between 06Z and 10Z,
mainly across central and northern portions of West Virginia.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR or IFR fog/low stratus cannot be
ruled out at KEKN early Sunday morning.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Mondays forecast highs vs. records for the CLI sites

SITE           Forecast      Record (Year Set)    Records Began
Charleston        88F           90F (1996)            1901
Huntington        90F           91F (1914)            1897
Parkersburg       87F           86F (1991)            1926
Clarksburg        86F           93F (1986)            1922
Beckley           84F           85F (2017)            1893
Elkins            85F           87F (1996)            1899


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JMC

CLIMATE...FK