Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 290016
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights:
Continued very cold over Interior and West Coast tonight. Very
cold wind chills over Eastern Arctic Coast through early Sat.
Blowing snow with reduced visibility over Western Arctic Coast
through early Sun. A strong storm developing in the southern
Bering Sea on Sat will bring 4-6 inches of snow, strong winds and
low visibility in blowing snow to zones 214 and 214 Sat eve to
Sun even, 6-12 inches of snow to zone 227 Sat night through Sun
night, 6 to 12 inches to the south slopes of the Alaska Range Sun
through Mon, and 4 inches to the remainder of the southern
Interior Sun through Mon, with more possible Mon night and Tue.

Colder temperatures, with highs near zero and lows in the 20s and
30s below, are expected to return next Tuesday and to last most
of next week.


Aloft...
A long wave trough stretching from near the North Pole south
across the Chukchi Sea into the Wester Bering Sea will progress
east over Mainland Alaska on Sun, then deepen through the middle
of next week. Several weak short waves will move east across the
state through Sat. The Interior will see very cold temps again
next week as thr trough deepens.

A strong short wave in the Western Bering Sea will move into
Bristol Bay Sat, over the Western Alaska Range on Sun, and then
over the Eastern Alaska Range on Mon. This will push snow into
Southwest Alaska and Alaska Range on Sat night, and over the
Eastern Interior on Sun.

850 MB temps range from -24C over NE Alaska to -14C over the
Yukon Delta. Will see temps rise 2-4C over the areas south of the
Arctic Circle by Sat, and another several degrees by Sun. This
will cause surface temps to rise over the Southern Interior when
clouds move Sat night, and to warm over the Interior south of the
Arctic Circle Sun and Sun night. Strong cooling Mon through Wed
next week is expected to cause surface temps too fall well below
normal next week and to remain cold through most of next week.

Surface...
A 996 mb low 400 NM northwest of Point Barrow will move to 300 NM
north of Demarcation Point as a 998 mb low by 3am Sat, then move
east. A weather front trailing this low will move to Point Barrow
to Cape Lisburne by 3am Sat, then move east of Demarcation Point
by 3am Sun and along the Brooks Range on Sat night into Sun. This
will will bring snow and blowing snow with low visibility to
zones 201 and 202 through Sat AM, and cold wind chills to zones
203 and 204 through Sat AM.

A strong low in the southern Bering Sea will move to the Central
Bering Sea as a 960 mb low by 3pm Sat, then move to the just north
of Bristol Bay as a 978 mb low by 3pm Sun and to the southeast
Interior by Mon. This will bring 4-6 inches of snow, strong winds
and low visibility in blowing snow to zones 214 and 214 Sat eve
to Sun even, 6-12 inches of snow to zone 227 Sat night through Sun
night, 6 to 12 inches to the south slopes of the Alaska Range Sun
through Mon, and 4 inches to the remainder of the Interior south
of the Yukon River Sun through Mon, with more snow possible Mon
night and Tue. Expect north winds 20-30 kt and blowing snow to
develop along the West Coast from the Bering Strait south on Sat
PM and continue into Sun PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft, and show similar solutions through
3pm Sun. After that time the NAM deepens the trough over mainland
Alaska more than other models with lower heights across northern
Alaska than the the other models Sun night and Mon. At this time
favor a mix of the GFS and ECMF over the NAM for Sun night and
Mon.

Models similar precipitation pattern through 3pm Sat, then the NAM
and ECMF moves precip NE faster than the GFS. At this time favor
the GFS due to downslope conditions at the outset of precipitation

Southerly downslope flow that develops across the Alaska Range
Sat night will turn SW on Sun and W on Mon. This will allow snow
to develop west of Nenana Sat night, and to spread to Fairbanks
and areas well north of the Alaska Range on Sun, with snow
spreading east to the Alcan Border by Mon.

At the surface, models verify well and show similar solutions
through 3pm Sun. After that time the NAM moves a deep low into the
SE Interior than the GFS and ECMF. At this time favor the GFS.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ214-
AKZ215.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$

JB FEB 20


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