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FXAK67 PAJK 272238

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
238 PM AKDT Wed May 27 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Through Fri night/ Rather quiet weather day across
the panhandle as offshore flow has dominated the overall pattern.
As a result most of the panhandle has few if any low clouds and
temperatures have warmed up into the mid 50s to lower 60s. There
is however a large shield of high clouds moving north over the
southern panhandle at the moment ahead of the weakening front that
is coming up from the south. That has curtailed the temperatures
down there to the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.

Into tonight and Thu, main change was in bringing the higher
clouds in faster this evening then what was there previously based
on current obs and satellite imagery. The speed of the front
itself and when rain will be moving in has not changed all that
much. Front is still expected to shear apart over the area and it
gets further from its parent low south of the gulf, and easterly
flow will likely limit rainfall amounts in some areas. Any
rainfall is not expected to reach the north until late Thu
afternoon at the earliest, Thu evening at the latest, and even
then some areas may not see any rain at all given the easterly
flow still present over the area. Probability of precipitation
kept around slight chance to chance given these limitations. There
will be some wind with this front though it will mainly be for
the SE gulf and southern panhandle and even then it will only be
25 kt or less.

A chance of rain lingers into Fri as more shortwaves from the SE
and E rotate through. Though again easterly downslope flow still
remains so some areas may not see any rain. Breezy conditions
continue for the gulf and southern panhandle through the rest of
the short range. Favored Gfs and Nam for updates today.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through next Tuesday/ As of 10pm Tuesday. The
low pressure south of the central gulf, discussed in the short
term section, will remain fairly stationary through the weekend.
This will keep majority of the northern panhandle under offshore
flow and the southern panhandle under SE flow. Occasional bands
of showers are expected to wrap around the low, mainly impacting
the south, but some could extend northward. Timing of these
bands, or whether they will even occur, is uncertain because
models tend to spread out convection too far and therefore over-
do POP, especially when moisture is coming from the east and has
to make it over the Coast Mountains. For this reason, have kept
POP on the lower end and below guidance for Friday into Saturday.

On Sunday the low starts to weaken to a trough and likely tracks
northward across the central gulf. This increases the threat of
rain as the offshore flow ends and shifts S to SW.

For the start of next week, models indicate a front moving into
the area from the SW and a ridge over the inner channels and Coast
Mtns. As a result, winds will be out of the south and rain looks
likely but the strength of the front and assoc winds is to be


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.




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