


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
154 FXAK67 PAJK 162344 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 344 PM AKDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/ Key Points: -Ridge continues over the gulf with dry conditions and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies continuing through Wednesday evening. -A weak front pushes into the SEAK Gulf coast late Wednesday night into Thursday, returning a round of clouds and light rain to the northern panhandle. - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Hyder until 7pm Wednesday evening. Discussion: No major changes to the forecast package this afternoon as SEAK continues to enough a period of quieter weather through this evening under ridging aloft. Looking at obs around the area, seeing generally mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s and marine winds around 10 to 15mph. Brief pattern change incoming tonight into Thursday as an upper level shortwave trough ejects a weak front into the NE Gulf coast and coastal panhandle. Not anticipating much, if any QPF with this system, less than 0.10", mostly falling as a light rain or drizzle along and north of Frederick Sound by early Thursday morning. Rain chances decrease once more by Thursday evening as another surface ridge moves into the panhandle with lows in the low to mid 50s. Current temps in Hyder hovering in the mid 70s this afternoon, still thinking we could climb a few more degrees into the upper 70s to briefly touching 80 over the next couple of hours. Main forecast concern for high temperatures will be upper level clouds streaming in from the NW flow. Held off on issuing Heat Advisory for Hyder area on Thursday with increasing cloud cover aloft, with highs reaching into the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...Stacked upper and surface high pressure situated over the Gulf continues to last into the long range, continuing the warming and drying trend into the weekend and early next week. There will be some shortwaves attempting to move through Friday into Saturday, bringing some chances for light rain along the northeast Gulf coast, however the surface ridge will rebuild by Sunday. This will bring a change to a warmer and drier pattern for early next week, as skies will begin to clear Saturday into Sunday and rain chances decrease for the majority of the panhandle by this weekend. Alongside this ridging pattern, some significant 12 to 15 degree C temperatures at 850 mb will be advecting warmer air into the region Monday and Tuesday and leading to some warmer surface temperatures. This will be aided even further by the sky clearing early next week, allowing for areas to get into the 70s for maximum temperatures. Areas further inland and along the northern panhandle (such as Skagway and Juneau) may see more of this warm air advection, with the NBM showing a potential of 20-30% of getting to 80 degrees and EFIs pinging for the panhandle Monday and Tuesday. Overall something to keep an eye on in the extended range. The skies clearing will continue to allow a stronger sea breeze to develop in some of the inner channels, with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts if a sea breeze develops. With the setup of the ridging offshore and a low over B.C., we are also expecting some stronger westerly winds along Icy Strait and other E-W oriented channels, with the strongest winds expected during the afternoon. The outer coastline is expected to continue to see a pattern to support a marine layer developing, with both the stacked ridge and moisture availability, so areas along the coastline and into the Icy Strait Corridor area if pushed inwards by westerly winds may see some marine layer formation Friday into this weekend. && .AVIATION... Isolated MVFR to widespread VFR flight conditions continue across the panhandle this afternoon. Worst flight conditions remain along the NE Gulf coast as marine layer remains stubborn, with CIGS AoA 2000ft. By Wednesday night, a weak front approaches the NE panhandle, bringing more midlevel cloud cover and low-end chances for drizzle for a isolated locations along the NE Gulf Coast and the northern half of the panhandle. Current thinking is much of the area will stay generally VFR through Wednesday night, barring the possibility of somewhat lower ceilings AoB 2500ft along a few outer coast locations like Sitka, Yakutat, and Gustavus. Winds should remain 15kts or less through the afternoon for much of the panhandle, outside of Sitka and Skagway which will see elevated sustained winds 15 to 20kts with sporadic gusts up to 25 kts. Winds decrease to 5kts or less through Wednesday night and variable. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Outside: Ridging will gradually move over the panhandle through Wednesday evening with strongest NW-ly winds expected on Gulf coastal side of Prince of Wales Island up to Strong Breeze around 25kts and wave heights up to 9ft, diminishing through Wednesday night to Moderate Breeze with wave heights decreasing to around 7ft as the ridge begins to slightly weaken. By Thursday afternoon broad westerly flow over the gulf with northwesterly flow along the southern panhandle with winds Moderate Breeze up to Fresh Breeze expected. No significant marine hazards expected at this time. Inside: As ridge moves over the panhandle through Wednesday evening, anticipating East/West oriented channels to see an increase in winds, with strongest winds expected in Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and Clarence straight through Wednesday night up to Fresh Breeze, or around 20kts. For Thursday, expecting generally same conditions to continue as an upper level system pushes into the northern panhandle. Strongest winds up to Fresh Breeze expected by Thursday afternoon in Northern Lynn Canal up through Taiya Inlet and for Clarence Strait in the Southern Panhandle. Otherwise, marine winds should remain Moderate Breeze or less through Thursday evening. No significant marine hazards expected at this time. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661. && $$ SHORT TERM...NM LONG TERM....Contino AVIATION...ABJ/NM MARINE...NM Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau