Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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573
FXUS61 KALY 191342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
942 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry weather this weekend with a
mostly clear sky and temperatures running a little below normal.
Temperatures will be milder for Monday with continued dry
conditions. A frontal boundary will bring the next chance for
rain showers on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 942 AM EDT...Frost Advisory has been allowed to expire,
as temperatures are rising this morning with nearly fully
sunshine in place. There continues to be some lake-enhanced
stratocu clouds across parts of the Mohawk Valley and Schoharie
County, but these are starting to break up. In addition, any
early morning valley fog across the Adirondacks has dissipated
as well.

With surface high pressure located directly over Upstate New
York, skies should continue to be nearly fully sunny through the
day. Upper level ridge axis will continue to move eastward
towards the area from the eastern Great Lakes. Mixing will not
be very deep at all today, only to about 925 hpa. So, despite
full sunshine, temps will probably run a little below normal,
with highs only reaching the 50s for valley areas (40s across
the high terrain). Despite the cooler temperatures, the full
sunshine and very light winds should still keep it fairly
pleasant to be outdoors today.

For tonight, good radiational cooling is expected as surface
high pressure slides across New England and the ridge axis
continues to move eastward towards eastern New York as well.
Skies should start off fairly clear, although can`t rule out
some high clouds by later in the night, as the remains of TC
Nestor move across the Southeastern US and some high cirrus
could move towards our area late. Overnight lows look to be in
the 30s. For areas where the growing season is still ongoing
(Capital Region, mid Hudson Valley, Southern Litchfield CT),
there could be some patchy frost, but probably not enough
coverage to require a Frost Advisory. Best chance of seeing
frost in this area will be across southern Saratoga County.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds increase during the day on Sunday which should prevent
temperatures from rising out of the mid-upper 50s, despite
southwest flow aloft. A shortwave passing well to our north/west
in southern Canada looks to drag a very weak boundary through
the region on Sunday but model trends continue to suggest it is
moisture starved. The National Hurricane Center continues to
show Nestor remaining well to our south with no direct impacts
to our region. Southwest flow ahead of the aforementioned
boundary could steer some moisture from Nestor towards the mid-
Hudson Valley/NW CT region with some members of guidance hinting
at a band of showers developing thanks to 700mb FGEN. The
latest members of the GEFS ensemble point to this potential as
well so we placed low end chance POPs in southern Ulster,
Dutchess and Litchfield County for 18z Sunday to 00z Monday
which matches up with BOX and BGM.

High pressure quickly builds back in Sunday night allowing
skies to clear. Temperatures should end up a bit milder than
previous nights only falling into the mid-30s to near 40. As a
trough upstream in the Midwest intensifies and closes off, the
downstream ridge over the Northeast should strengthen allowing
the surface high over northern New England to strengthen as
well. This should keep skies mostly sunny despite a warm front
gradually pushing northeastward through the day. Increasing warm
air advection, however, should allow our high temperatures to
warm into the low to mid 60s. Clouds increase overnight as the
trough heads eastward and the warm front crosses through our
area. Overnight lows Monday should thus remain mild in the mid-upper
40s due to the strong southwest regime as we enter the warm
sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance is consistent that short waves moving in across the
Pacific Northwest result in the development of a stacked low
pressure system which should be positioned over the western
Great Lakes region to start the day Tuesday. This mature system
is expected to move gradually northward into Ontario Canada
through Friday. Expecting another widespread rainfall Tuesday
and Tuesday night as its associated cold front approaches during
the day Tuesday and moves across the region Tuesday night.
Guidance indicates a strong low level jet of 35 to 50 knots
should move across the region ahead of the cold front. The
system is expected to tap gulf moisture and complicating matters
is guidance indicates moisture from Nestor could be drawn into
the system. Thus the rain could be heavy at times. QPF amounts
are uncertain at this time but the area just received a
widespread 2 to 4 inches rainfall earlier in the week. Lingering
showers are expected Wednesday as a vigorous short wave rotates
about the system and crosses the region. Improving conditions
expected Thursday and Friday as the low moves farther away and
higher pressure builds in at the surface with upper level flow
expected to become flat across the region Thursday and
southwesterly Friday as another trough digs across the central
CONUS. Expecting seasonable temperatures with highs mainly in
the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging builds in aloft and at the surface shifts across the
region through the TAF period. Lake enhanced clouds occurring
into the Schoharie Valley are not expected to impact other TAF
sites. Expecting VFR conditions with clear skies through the day
with cirrus streaming in tonight. A light west-northwest wind is
expected to develop at 6 knots or less today diminishing this
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected for tonight into Sunday for most of the
area. While skies should be fairly clear for tonight, there
could be some clouds for Sunday (especially across southern
areas). After RH values near 100 percent tonight, they will fall
to 55 to 65 percent for Sunday afternoon. Very light or calm
winds tonight will become southerly for Sunday around 5 mph.
Although Monday will be dry again, rain is expected for
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels continue to recede after the heavy rainfall from
earlier in the week. With continued dry weather through Monday,
river levels will continue to fall. The next chance of rain will
arrive on Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. Our current forecast is for about one
half inch to one inch of rain to fall, with the heaviest amounts
across northern and high terrain areas. There is still some
uncertainty within the model and ensemble guidance regarding
exact amounts, so there could be changes with this over the
next few days. Overall, this rainfall will allow rivers to rise
once again, but it doesn`t appear enough to cause hydrologic
problems as of this time.

Behind this system, more dry weather will return for Wednesday
and Thursday, allowing river levels to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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