Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 300719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...Cooler with slowly diminishing showers...

High impact weather potential: Minor lakeshore flooding concerns
along portions of the Lake Michigan coast today.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure
responsible for the recent bout of wet weather continues to slowly
fill as it pushes into southeast Ontario early this morning. System
continues to generate light showers and pockets of drizzle across
northern Michigan as moisture rich low level cyclonic flow continues.
Complete disconnect with northern stream regime has resulted in only
weak system backside cold air advection, keeping showers of the
liquid variety so far. That may begin to change heading through this
morning as the surface based melting layer looks to perhaps shrink
just enough to allow some snow to mix in. Given marginal surface
temperatures, not expecting much if any snow accumulation by morning.

Ontario low pressure will only slowly move off to the east, reaching
New England by this evening. Its overall influence on our weather
will gradually diminish in the process, especially as we head into

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing lingering light
rain and snow potential, especially this morning. Cloud and
temperature trends right through tonight.

Details: Moisture gradually strips out from aloft this morning,
leaving moisture rich low levels to continue to generate very light
showers/drizzle this morning. Expect some of these showers to mix
with snow at times, but once again with minimal accumulation. Subtle
drying in the near-surface environment should help gradually end the
more widespread light precip threat heading through this afternoon,
although cannot completely rule out a few pockets of lingering
drizzle. All that low level moisture will contribute to plenty of
clouds, which will definitely help keep temperatures a bit on the
cool side today...with readings only topping out in the upper 30s to
middle 40s. Gusty northwest winds will definitely make it feel a bit
colder yet.

Challenging cloud forecast tonight with growing evidence low level
moisture will continue to rotate back overhead from that slowly
departing New England low. May even need to be on the lookout for a
bit of drizzle late tonight across northeast lower Michigan where
low level convergence will be maximized. Not overly sold on this
idea however, with lack of good shear at the top of the moist layer
and still hints of a relatively dry near-surface environment. Will
definitely trend more aggressively toward overnight cloud coverage,
keeping conditions at least mostly cloudy, especially across
northeast lower Michigan. These clouds will prevent temperatures
from falling too much, but still expect lows by sunrise Tuesday to
drop into the middle 20s to lower 30s...about right on par for this
time of year.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

...A Blocking Pattern to Form?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...If there are any showers left from the
500 mb shortwave rotating through the region, then the showers will
begin to diminish into the afternoon. High pressure noses into the
Upper Great Lakes region. Models leave moisture above the sfc, so
will expect that there will be clouds over the region through
Thursday morning.

This looks to be the start of a weak omega block as the the two 500
mb lows set up with the ridging between them near or over the Upper
Great Lakes. The clouds from the residual moisture is the only thing
stopping us from getting much above normal for Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...There are few concerns over this 48
hours as the high settles over the state. The winds diminish to 10
mph or less as the gradient slackens through the 48 hours.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunder Friday night/Saturday?

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...The ridge between the two 500
mb lows will amplify, into what is looking like an Omega block. The
National Blend of Models (NBM) looks like it is a little slow to
catch onto this. Not sure where the chance pops are coming from in
the NBM as the GFS, ECMWF, and CMCnh all have a similar look and
Fropa on Friday night/Saturday. So have Thursday and Friday (day)
dry, and then Friday night into Saturday with chance pops for the
fropa. Might have to dry out Sunday as well, but will leave that for
tomorrow night`s fun. Sunday night, the GFS and ECMWF have a wave
moving through so the chance for precipitation will be there again.

Temperatures this week will start out around below normal, and warm
up to above normal when the 500 mb ridging moves in on
Thursday/Friday. Looking at mid 50s for highs. Before cooling to the
normal highs of the mid to upper 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1157 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Low pressure is of Sault Ste Marie, and will continue to move
east away from the region. But there is plenty of low-level
moisture present in the wake of the system. Showers will continue
to be prevalent overnight, perhaps transitioning to something a
little more drizzly before ending Monday. Widespread IFR to LIFR
cigs overnight into Monday morning. Slow improvement to MVFR will
occur on Monday afternoon.

W winds will veer nw and remain gusty into Monday.


Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Northwest to north winds will continue to be a bit gusty
into this evening, producing small craft advisory conditions on most
of our nearshore waters. Winds gradually subside overnight. Still
looks like an extended period of sub advisory conditions through the
rest of the week.


MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ020-
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-342-
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.


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