Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261858
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
258 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Except for an isolated thunderstorm through this evening, quiet
weather will continue through Wednesday. A frontal system will
bring a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, before
dry and cooler weather returns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Air mass thunderstorms appear to be firing off terrain features
over the far northern and southern portions of the forecast
area this afternoon. With weak wind flow aloft, these storms
will move very slowly and aren`t likely to become organized.
We`ll keep an eye on precipitation amounts if storms become
stuck over a certain area.

Patchy valley fog will form overnight as temperatures dip into
the 60s.

Expect partly sunny skies and temperatures in the middle 80s
along the Twin Tiers on Wednesday.

A warm front will bring showers to the southern portion of the
forecast area late Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period features a slowly departing ridge and a equally slowly
approaching cold front. Wednesday night into Thursday will show
increasing moisture but remain relative stable as the mid level
ridging remains in place. Expect mainly just light showers with
perhaps enough instability for isolated thunder, especially
over the central and western zones. By Friday, deeper
instability arrives ahead of the front allowing for more
widespread convection.

Threat for severe weather is minimal at this distance as the
wind field is not impressive limiting the shear, and the overall
instability is moderate. Higher threat may be from heavy rain
as the pwats are better than a inch and a half MBE vectors
suggest back building cells.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change in the long term. Models continue to be consistent
with much cooler air moving in for the weekend and after some
leftover showers Saturday the long term looks dry and
unseasonably cool.

Previous discussion continues below.


Warm and humid conditions continue for Friday, with highs mainly
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A cold front will be approaching
the area from the west throughout the day, setting the stage
for an increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
especially by the afternoon. As previous shifts have noted,
there is some signal there for strong to severe storms Friday
given the favorable large-scale dynamics and strengthening wind
field in the mid levels. As usual, the extent of the severe
thunderstorm risk will dependent on if there will be some breaks
in the morning clouds, therefore enhancing instability for the
afternoon. The extend of any morning clearing remains uncertain.

Given the strong downstream blocking off the eastern seaboard, the
cold front will be slow to progress southeastward through the
forecast area Friday night and could conceivably get hung up in our
far southeastern zones (Poconos-Catskills) for at least the
first half of Saturday. Therefore, we continue to have low-end
chance PoPs for these areas Saturday morning. Otherwise,
northwest flow behind the front will advect much cooler and
drier air into the region this weekend into the beginning of
next week.

After near-normal temperatures on Saturday (upper 60s to upper
70s), highs will likely be below normal for Sunday and Monday,
mainly in the lower to upper 60s. Lows will also become quite
chilly for this time of the year with widespread 40s and even
some upper 30s possible Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Except for highly isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, expect quiet weather and light winds through the next
24 hours.

Recent rains could spawn IFR fog at KELM early Wednesday
morning, especially between 09Z and 11Z. A marine layer with
MVFR ceilings could affect the KAVP terminal toward sunrise
Wednesday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday night...Showers and thunder possible
with associated restrictions, especially Friday with front.

Saturday...Showers/restrictions possible early, otherwise VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...BJG/DGM
AVIATION...DJP



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