Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 211041
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
641 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny skies and warm temperatures to NY
and PA today. A frontal system will push rain across our region
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
310 AM update...

High pressure tracking across NY and PA will bring mild
temperatures and sunny skies to our forecast area today. After a
foggy start, sunshine will burn through the mist between 830 AM
and 10 AM, giving way to a warm, picturesque October afternoon.
Temperatures will reach the middle-60s, with upper-60s possible
up the lake plain.

Clouds will increase Monday night ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Light winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph out of the
south, importing mild, humid air. A few showers might reach our
far western counties by sunrise.

Rain will increase from west to east Tuesday. Though the models
are a little slower with the onset times, rain looks like a
certainty by afternoon. Temperatures will peak between 55 and 60
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wet start to the short term period, then mainly dry and
seasonable across the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Tuesday night: A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system
is progged to slowly move NE across northern Ontario overnight.
At the same time a rather robust frontal boundary will slowly
push across our CWA. Latest guidance has now really honed in on
the period of steadiest rain, highest QPF and PoPs...mainly
late afternoon into the evening west of I-81...and during the
evening into the early overnight period east of I-81. A strong
southerly jet will be present above 900mb, and this will help to
transport ample deep moisture into our area. PWATs rise to
between 1-1.3 inches and dew points rise into the 50s.
Instability is forecast to be minimal at best, but cannot rule
out some elevated convection sneaking into our southeastern
counties in the evening. At this time, am still expecting a
solid, soaking rainfall event; with 12-18 hour totals reaching
between a half to one inch; localized higher amounts up to 1.5
inches will be possible, mainly along and east of I-81 up into
Oneida county. The current thinking it that this amount of rain
should not cause any significant problems on area rivers or
creeks. Could see some localized ponding of water on roadways
and other low lying areas, especially if storm drains are
clogged with leaves or other debris. Collaborated with WPC and
surrounding offices to keep our CWA out of the excessive
rainfall outlook. Once the front goes by to the east things
should dry out, under partly cloudy skies by daybreak. Overnight
lows 40-45.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Zonal westerly flow, eventually
backing more southwesterly. Perhaps some lingering clouds and
isolated showers north of the Thruway off of Lake Ontario...
otherwise partly cloudy and a little breezy. West-southwest
winds 10-20 mph. Seasonable temperatures.

Thursday/Thursday night: High pressure will be situated across
the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region. A weak frontal boundary
will attempt to press into our northwestern zones, which could
bring more clouds and a chance for a few showers here. Current
model guidance has the surface high holding tough southeast of
Utica-Ithaca-Elmira, (down across all of NE PA) with dry weather
forecast here. Mild with highs around 60 and lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trending cooler, with near average precipitation chances
through the extended. A weak wave of low pressure will ride
along the aforementioned stationary boundary situated over our
area on Friday. Continued to advertise chance PoPs for showers
with this system and mostly cloudy skies. Slightly cooler with
highs in the 50s. After this wave moves by to the east, the
latest guidance is now in better agreement that a shot of colder
air will filter into our area from the Great Lakes, associated
with the northern stream trough. Therefore, our CWA now looks to
be under a chilly northwest flow pattern Friday night into Saturday.
Most guidance now has a cyclonic flow of air, around -3C to -4C
crossing over Lake Ontario during this timeframe. With lake
temperatures between about +11C to +14C this should produce
enough instability for lake effect showers. Boundary layer
temperatures could be cold enough (mid to upper 30s) for some
snowflakes to mix in during the overnight hours over the higher
terrain. This possibility remains to be seen. Have slight chance
to lower end chance PoPs in the forecast. Recovers into the
mid-40s to low 50s Saturday afternoon.

Later Saturday afternoon and night is now trending dry, as an
area of high pressure moves into the area. Forecast to be
chilly, with good radiational cooling conditions and lows in the
upper 20s to 30s areawide.

Uncertainty remains for the end of the extended period. Latest
00z GFS keeps the area dry Sunday into next Monday. Meanwhile,
the CMC and ECMWF bring a closed upper level low out of the
Mid-Mississippi valley during this time, with ample moisture.
For now, with the uncertainty and lower confidence, used a blend
of available guidance for official forecast. This gave slight
chance to low end chance PoPs for showers. Highs look to be
mainly in the 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s, which is
near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Widespread IFR and LIFR fog is forecast through early Monday
morning. Visibilities will hold around 1/4SM at KELM and KBGM,
with visibilities below 3/4SM likely at KRME. Fog will remain
dense through sunrise and begin to dissipate between 13z and
14z.

Thereafter, skies will rapidly clear. VFR conditions are
forecast Monday and Monday evening with light winds.

Low stratus ahead of an approaching front will spread MVFR or
fuel alternate ceilings into our terminals between 04z and 08z
Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...restrictions likely in showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...mainly VFR.

Friday...possible restrictions in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DJP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.