Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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434
FXUS64 KCRP 141009 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
509 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

With higher dewpoints moving inland with the warm front, areas of
fog have formed over the Coastal Bend. Update to mention fog for
early this morning across the Coastal Bend and patchy fog for
inland coastal plains where there is more cloud cover.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

The weak surface trough or warm front was located right along
the coast at 09Z. Latest MSAS analysis shows better low level
convergence along this boundary along the upper Texas coast where
most of the CAM models show better coverage of convection this
morning. GOES imagery of total precipitable water shows high
moisture along this boundary with PW values around 2.1 inches.
Expect isolated to possibly scattered convection from the coastal
waters into the Mid-Coast region this morning as the weak boundary
moves through. The activity will diminish by this afternoon for
most of the area but will retain slight chance PoPs in the
Victoria Crossroads.

Temperatures will rebound to above normal levels today with readings
slightly higher on Tuesday as the region will be on the northern
edge of the mid level ridge that covers the Gulf of Mexico into
northeast Mexico.

Tide levels continue to run from 1.2 to 1.5 feet above expected
along the Middle Texas coast. ESTOFS and P-ETSS continue to show
tide levels reaching advisory levels during the next high tide
cycle. Extended the Coastal Flood Advisory until 12Z Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

The extended period will start off with the approach our next cold
front. As an upper-level trough pushes eastward across the northern
CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday, a surface low will makes its way
into the Great Lakes region with a cold front draping southward
across the Plains. The cold front is expected to push through
North/Central Texas overnight and approach South Texas by early
Wednesday morning. Ahead of the approaching cold front, ample
moisture (PWATs around 2.0 to 2.2 inches) is expected to pool ahead
of the boundary across the region. This moisture combined with lift
from 700mb frontogenesis is expected to result in increasing rain
chances through Wednesday. Although, scattered showers are most
likely, given CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg, a few thunderstorms
will be possible through Wednesday morning as well. Overall, the 00z
run of the mid-range models are in fairly good agreement with the
arrival of frontal passage into South Texas Wednesday morning and
reaching the Middle Texas Coast by Wednesday afternoon. The NAM is a
bit more aggressive with the cold front bringer cooler temperatures
and pushing it through earlier than the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF, but will
rely more on a blend between these models for the frontal passage
timing. Otherwise, this front will not be a potent as last week`s
cold front, but still expecting northerly winds to bring lower
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s along with a bit cooler
conditions with daytime temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Behind the cold front, a shortwave trough is expected to push into
western Texas from the Desert Southwest Wednesday and Thursday.
Although, influence from this shortwave trough will likely remain
north of South Texas, will still maintain some rain chances mainly
along the coast and out over the Gulf waters through the end of the
week as this cold front is expected to stall over the Gulf waters
and then retreat back northward as a warm front on Friday. This will
bring back the onshore flow and the return of the  moisture and
warmer temperatures to South Texas as upper level zonal flow sets
in Friday and Saturday. However, another potent upper level
system is looking to take shape at the end of the extended period,
which may bring another strong cold front to Texas about a week
from today.

Additionally, minor coastal flooding will be possible for Gulf-
facing beaches south of Port Aransas Tuesday night around periods of
high tide. Northeasterly winds developing behind the cold front on
Wednesday and Thursday may limit the coastal flood threat a bit, but
ESTOFS values still prog water levels near/just below 2 feet MSL.
However, with the return of onshore flow by Friday, minor coastal
flooding threat will possibly return as we head into the weekend.

MARINE...

A weak easterly flow will occur early this morning along the coast
as a warm front moves onshore. Isolated to scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms will move across the waters this morning. The
chance for rain will diminish by this afternoon. Weak to moderate
south to southeast winds are expected from this afternoon through
Tuesday.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday across the
Middle Texas waters as a cold front pushes through South Texas.
Weak to moderate northeast flow is expected to develop in the wake
of the cold front through Thursday with brief periods of small
craft advisory conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. By Friday, onshore flow will return as the cold front
stalls and retreats back north as a warm front. This combined
with the lingering moisture over the Gulf Waters is expected to
support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  75  93  72  83  /  20  10  10  40  50
Victoria          88  74  94  69  75  /  30  10  10  60  50
Laredo            94  74  99  72  80  /   0   0   0  30  60
Alice             92  74  96  70  84  /  10  10  10  30  50
Rockport          86  80  89  74  81  /  20  10  10  40  50
Cotulla           93  74  97  70  75  /  10  10  10  60  50
Kingsville        92  74  95  72  85  /  10  10  10  30  50
Navy Corpus       88  79  91  75  83  /  20  10  10  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday For the following
     zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM



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