Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 252143 CCA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
343 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tomorrow night)

Temperatures will begin to drop after sunset with the passage of
the cold front with the majority of the CWA in the mid to upper
40`s. Tomorrows highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees despite clear
skies. Dry and breezy conditions are expected behind the front
with RH values in the 20-30% range and surface winds between 15-25
MPH. Due to those variables occurring during peak heating a Fire
Danger Statement was issued for Southern Portions of The Brush
Country and the Coastal Bend. Due to strong winds across coastal
locations a Wind Advisory might be needed for tomorrow, especially
along the Barrier Islands. Strong CAA and radiational cooling
tomorrow night will result in widespread temperatures in the low
to mid 30`s across the area. Due to the expected low temperatures
tomorrow night a freeze warning might be needed across the
northern counties of the CWA and the Victoria Crossroads.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

A very cold Thursday morning to start, with temperatures approaching
freezing in our northern counties. The upper-level jet stream drifts
off to the east Thursday, allowing for ridging aloft to dominate
through the weekend. Winds will be light and variable Thursday and
Friday as surface high pressure shifts eastward. Onshore flow
returns Saturday and strengthens Saturday night through early next
week as another surface high develops over the Gulf and transitions
eastward. A series of shortwave disturbances indicated at 500mb
travels its way through Texas late Saturday night through Monday,
accompanied by PWAT values greater than normal exceeding 1.0" will
bring increasing moisture but PoPs will remain below 20%. A deep
trough will dig down past southern California Monday and approach
into West Texas Tuesday bringing along the next cold front. Rain
chances will increase with isolated thunderstorm potential prior to
FROPA on Tuesday as CAPE values are expected to exceed 1000 J/kg in
some areas. The timing of the next cold front varies a bit but
should traverse through the area between Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

In regards to temperature, another warm trend will take place over
the weekend into early next week. Lows will start in the upper 30s
on Friday but will quickly rise through the weekend into early next
week, with lows in the mid 60s by Tuesday morning. Highs will start
in the low 70s Friday and reach well into the 80s on Tuesday before
the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas are expected to increase behind the cold front.
Due to strong winds, an SCA is in effect for the bays from 9 PM
CST tonight until noon Wednesday with an SCA for the Gulf Waters
from 9 PM CST tonight until midnight with a subsequent Gale
Warning until noon Wednesday due to wind gusts up to 40 knots.
Light and variable winds will persist Thursday through Friday,
before onshore flow returns and strengthens Saturday through early
next week as the next cold front approaches mid- week. Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible Saturday night through
early next week for the nearshore and offshore coastal waters,
transitioning to Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night
through Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  47  59  36  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
Victoria          76  43  57  31  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
Laredo            79  47  60  36  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             82  46  61  33  63  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  47  59  40  58  /  10  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           77  43  60  32  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        84  47  61  34  63  /  10  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  49  58  43  58  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST
     tonight For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin
     Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Wednesday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port
     Aransas to Port O`Connor.

&&

$$

JCP/84...SHORT TERM
EMF/94...LONG TERM



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