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000
FXUS63 KDDC 041042
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

UA analysis showed that the main belt of upper level westerly flow
was relegated to the northern half of the CONUS. Farther south, an
upper level ridge dominated the region from northern Mexico into
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. The ridging pattern
has resulted in a weakened low level flow pattern across western
Kansas.

In spite of the weak flow aloft, the atmosphere over western
Kansas remains moderately unstable with 1000-2000 j/kg of MUCape
and around 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. Multiple outflow boundaries
from convection on Wednesday evening had pushed into southwest
Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. These features will likely be the
focus for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms again later
this afternoon and evening. Most of the thunderstorm activity may
be confined to areas along and south of the Oklahoma border but
cannot totally rule out a thunderstorm across portions of central
and southwest Kansas, especially since a lot of the CAMs continue
to hint at it. Am not expecting a lot of coverage and most locations
will not see any rain but any storms that develop could produce
some hail around quarter size and potentially damaging winds.

Temperatures today will most likely top out around or even warmer
than on Wednesday. Some locations across far southwest Kansas
could touch the 100 degree mark later this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

The upper level ridge over the southern Rockies will build
northeastward into the central Plains on Friday in response to an
upper level low pressure system digging into the Pacific
Northwest. Another closed upper low initially off the coast of
Baja California will also get ejected northeast into the central
Rockies on Saturday. It appears that the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms with this system will remain over Colorado as
warmer mid level temperatures may keep a lid on any convection
over the central Plains.

Very warm to hot daytime temperatures will continue through the
weekend into early next week. Cooler temperatures, along with at
least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, will return
by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through this period with generally light
winds. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible
later this afternoon and evening. For now there is enough uncertainty
to preclude any VCTS/TSRA in the TAFs but this will be monitored
through the day for possible inclusion in later TAF updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  66 100  70 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  99  64 100  69 /  20  20   0   0
EHA 100  64 101  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL 100  65 101  70 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  96  67  97  69 /  10  20   0  10
P28  98  70 100  71 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard