


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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670 FXUS63 KDDC 150402 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1102 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot weather is forecast through Wednesday. - There are chances for t-storms Wednesday night into Thursday, along with cooler temperatures. - There are signals of an extended hot spell beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A weak upper level disturbance will pass north of Kansas Tuesday and interact with a frontal boundary to spark t-storms well north I-70 Tuesday evening and night. Southwestern Kansas will be free of t-storms. Outflow from a storm cluster will push into central Kansas by Wednesday. The next upper level trough will traverse the northern plains Wednesday evening and night along with an associated cold front. T-storms will develop along the front and possibly along the outflow boundary from previous night`s storms. Given the very weak vertical wind shear, these storms will only be strong to marginally severe, with 60 mph wind gusts possible. Once these surface fronts get south of the mid to high level westerlies they will tend to stall out. But by Thursday morning the outflow from Wednesday night`s storms will likely push into southern Kansas. With daytime heating additional storms will develop along this boundary across the southern tier from Liberal to Medicine Lodge. By Friday, the model ensemble trends indicate weak upper level troughing over the Desert Southwest, with weak westerlies extending across Kansas. This will tend to keep temperatures from getting overly hot. However, given the existence of a low level capping inversion (due to the mid level downslope flow) that would trap moisture close to the ground, high dewpoints will likely be in place so that afternoon heat indices will likely be in the 100 degree range. There are very small chances for thunderstorms through Sunday and possibly even into Monday. During summer, isolated t-storms can`t be ruled out as long as Kansas is situated along the southern edge of the westerlies, with surface troughing along the high plains. But organized storm clusters with widespread heavy rain are highly unlikely. The various ensemble suites indicate an upper level ridge expanding northward into the central plains early next week and persisting for several days, something we have not seen much of this summer. If this happens, moisture levels will drop due to the absence of a strong capping inversion and an increase in the depth of vertical mixing, but actual temperatures could surpass 100 given the dry air. Thunderstorm chances in this pattern would be slim to none due to the lack of potential instability and forcing mechanisms. However, model run to run consistency showing this scenario is preferred before latching onto the idea of an extended heat wave. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late Tuesday afternoon. Light south-southeast winds through mid- morning Tuesday will increase 15 to 25kt generally after 14-15Z as lee side troughing slowly strengthens in eastern Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...JJohnson