Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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371
FXUS63 KDDC 220602
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
102 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Regardless of a strong northwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains today, precip chances will remain absent across
the region through tonight as a fairly dry air mass remains
stretched across western Kansas. A gradual warm up is likely today
as a light northwest downslope flow becomes more westerly across
much of western Kansas later this afternoon as lee side troughing
strengthens in eastern Colorado. This will draw slightly warmer
air into the area pushing H85 temperatures well up into the upper
single digits(C) in central Kansas to near 12C near and along the
Colorado border. Under mostly sunny skies, expect to see widespread
highs in the 60s(F) this afternoon. For tonight, a prevailing
southwesterly downslope flow will keep temperatures from dropping
below the 40s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas with
only a few mid/upper 30s(F) possible toward west central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Precip chances return to portions of western Kansas Wednesday night
into early Thursday as an upper level trough drops southward across
the Northern/Central Rockies, setting up an intensifying southwest
flow aloft across the Western High Plains. As post-frontal H85-7
frontogenetic banding develops generally across southwest and south
central Kansas late Wednesday night, periods of light rain may be
possible into early Thursday morning. A potential switchover to
light snow may be possible in extreme southwest Kansas later
Thursday morning as colder air filters southward through the high
plains. Any precip is expected to dissipate through Thursday
afternoon with little in the way of any accumulation. A drier
pattern returns Friday as the upper level trough dips further south
into the South Plains while drier air near the surface moves back
into the high plains.

A warming trend continues into Wednesday for at least south central
Kansas ahead of an approaching cold front projected to push into
western Kansas early in the day. Expect highs up into the lower/mid
70s(F) ahead of the boundary in south central Kansas with temperatures
reaching only up into the mid/upper 60s(F) further northwest. Colder
air surging into western Kansas will drop temperatures well below
normal Thursday with highs possibly struggling to reach the 50s(F).
A gradual warming trend then returns through the early part of
the weekend as a low level southerly flow sets up across the high
plains of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through
late this afternoon. West-northwest winds 5 to 15kt will persist
through late morning then become more west-southwesterly around 15
to 25kt this afternoon as a weak lee side trough of low pressure
slowly strengthens in eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  68  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  31  68  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  32  68  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  65  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
P28  37  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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