Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 041441
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
941 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

A front is advancing across northern Minnesota this morning,
extending south from a low pressure system over the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border area. Ahead of this feature a band of
showers and a few thunderstorms is moving across northern
Minnesota. This band has been in a plume of weak instability and
shear, but is now moving out of that plume, and I expect weakening
of this band over the next few hours as it moves into the
Arrowhead. This band will affect the Arrowhead into the early
morning hours, and have kept at least chance pops there most of
this morning. The front will be draped across the area this
afternoon, and should serve as a trigger for afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. Stronger afternoon
convection should get going along the tail end of this boundary
over the high plains this afternoon, somewhere over western North
or South Dakota. Depending on where this convection gets started,
we should have another round of showers and thunderstorms, with
the more northerly solutions getting up into the Arrowhead, with
most of them mainly catching the southern third or so of the
forecast area. Convection should clear out of the area by Friday
morning for a dry remainder of the day as a ridge of high pressure
builds into the area. Temperatures today to be similar to
yesterday, with high in the 70s to around 80, and mild tonight
with a mild airmass in place and some cloud cover to keep
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Temperatures will cool some
for Friday with the showers and thunderstorms in the early morning
and the cold air moving into the area from the northwest to keep
temperatures mostly in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Saturday will remain quiet with the ridge axis that slowly slides
across the area overnight Friday night and Saturday. The airmass
will keep us on the seasonable side with highs in the 70s. After
Saturday our weekend gets more interesting as the upper level
ridge axis that will have been helping to keep the weather quiet
for Friday-Saturday slides east of the area and allows a large
upper level trough over the west coast to begin pushing shortwave
energy our way. An initial first wave moves northeast across the
high plains Saturday night and early Sunday, and it should be
interacting with a 850mb baroclinic zone which extends across the
high plains and into northern MN and WI. It should manage to push
a wave of showers and thunderstorms across the region in the
Saturday night and Sunday morning time range. Another strong
shortwave should move across the area in the Sunday night and
Monday morning time range. These first couple waves mainly affect
areas west of the forecast area, but as we get into the middle of
the week as additional shortwaves move across the area,
precipitation chances and amounts should increase, with the
greatest confidence in getting precipitation is about mid week.
Returning to Sunday and Sunday night, this round of showers and
thunderstorms appears to be accompanied by a decently strong
shortwave, a deep plume of heat and humidity and a decent upper
level jet, which should increases our potential for getting
stronger thunderstorms on both Sunday evening, and again Monday
afternoon and evening, though I think in both cases the greater
risk is west/southwest of the forecast area. Our warmest day
should be Monday ahead of the strongest upper level trough, but
then increasing cloud cover should lower temperatures for Tuesday.

The main upper level trough gets just east of us on Wednesday, and
we get into the deep cyclonic flow that produces cold air
advection aloft and diurnally driven showers and a few
thunderstorms, especially as a shortwave moves through aloft. This
has kept pops at least chance category, but with less thunder than
the previous days. The colder air aloft should also produce cooler
temperatures with highs on Wednesday and Thursday mainly in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the process of
moving through the terminals this morning. Predominantly VFR
conditions are expected, though there may be very brief MVFR
conditions during heavier showers, along with brief wind gusts,
they should move out by 14z. During the day today, winds may gust
15 to 20 knots from the west to southwest, mainly between 17z and
00z. More chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected,
generally after 20z, with the greatest chances at KBRD and KHYR.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

A line of showers out ahead of a cold front are propagating across
Lake Superior this morning. Winds over the lake are out of the south
around 5-10 kts and will turn southwesterly this afternoon. Another
round of showers will enter from the west tonight. Look for showers
to clear out Friday afternoon with high pressure ridging in from the
west. Winds will increase slightly to 10-15 kts out of the
northwest. No advisories expected at this time with wave height
remaining at 2 ft or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  55  76  47 /  60  20   0   0
INL  77  51  69  42 /  10  30   0   0
BRD  80  55  77  49 /  20  30   0   0
HYR  82  56  80  48 /  30  30   0   0
ASX  82  56  78  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Britt/Huyck



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