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FXUS64 KEPZ 250505
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1105 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
P6SM SKC-SCT200-250 to start period with a cold front
dropping south and reaching KTCS early in the period by 07Z and
then toward KLRU-KELP by around 09Z-10Z shifting winds from west
to the northwest to northeast. Strongest winds will be around KTCS
around sunrise where 15-20G25-30KTS are possible. With easterly
winds pushing up against the Sacramento Mountains isolated to
scattered 3-5SM -TSRA BKN030-040 possible between 18Z-00Z with
movement into far eastern Hudspeth County in mid to late afternoon.
Winds will shift back to the west up to the Rio Grande after 18Z,
but gusty east winds of 10-20G30KTS will move west to about the
Continental Divide between 00Z- 06Z.

26
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...219 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will be breezy tonight before a cold front arrives from the
Plains on Monday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon east of the Rio Grande as the front
moves across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Temperatures
will be briefly cooler on Tuesday before warming back up on
Wednesday along with dry conditions. Rain chances return area wide
next Friday, with showers and thunderstorms possible throughout
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday...
A shortwave is currently moving through the Borderland. The
clouds that were associated with it this morning have since
dissipated and we`re now left with mostly sunny skies. Westerly
winds are expected to continue increasing over the next several
hours as surface troughing persists over eastern New Mexico. This
surface trough will get pushed south over us late this evening and
into tonight as a backdoor cold front moves in from the Plains.
This will allow winds to become more northwesterly and remain
elevated overnight. Low temperatures will likely be mild once
again tonight due to the breezes.

The main feature for the forecast period will be the above-
mentioned backdoor cold front. As it approaches early Monday
morning, winds will start to turn northeasterly to easterly across
eastern locations. The front is expected to generally get hung up
in the Sacramento Mountains, however, there are some indications
that it may reach a bit further west. Dewpoints behind the front
will jump into the upper 30s to 40s and instability will increase.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the
Sacramento Mountains by mid-day to early afternoon. The big
question is if storms are going to develop anywhere else. Several
hi-res models continue to show scattered storms developing across
Hudpseth County and perhaps even El Paso County during the
afternoon. Since this has shown up for several runs now, I have
kept a slight chance of afternoon storms for El Paso and Las
Cruces, though confidence is low. High temperatures Monday will
vary depending on where the front makes it to. Far eastern
locations will cool a bit thanks to the cooler air behind the
front, but places west of the Rio Grande will remain in the mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Aforementioned frontal boundary will make a secondary westward
push overnight into Tuesday morning which will increase surface
dewpoints to the 40`s. This shallow moisture won`t make too much
of a difference in terms of precipitable water, however, only
reaching 0.6" or so throughout the week. Therefore only spotty
rain showers will be possible with the majority of the region
staying dry early this week.

Tuesday will feature cooler temperatures with lowland highs only
reaching the lower 80`s. We`ll quickly jump back to above normal
for Wednesday and Thursday as an upper ridge over Baja California
begins to be the primary weather influencer. Temperatures should
increase back into the lower 90`s with light winds and partly
cloudy skies.

Deeper moisture is finally set to arrive next Friday as moisture
trapped within the upper high bumps PWs to around 1.00". Scattered
showers and thunderstorms look probable as far west as the AZ/NM
border. Rain chances will continue through the weekend as the
upper low over central Texas retrogrades slightly closer to our
area. QPF amounts look to be light, with higher amounts (~0.50)
over area mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy winds will continue this evening and into the overnight
period, but should generally remain below critical levels. A
backdoor cold front will push into the area Monday morning, but
will get hung up along the Sacramento Mountains for the most part.
Winds will become northeasterly to easterly overnight into the
morning hours as it approaches. The increased moisture will result
in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the Sacs
around mid-day Monday. There`s a bit of question regarding just
how far west this front and moisture will reach. For now, have
included a slight chance of storms as far west as El Paso Monday
afternoon, though confidence is low. Min RHs will increase above
25% for Otero and Hudspeth Counties on Monday while everywhere
else remains around 8-14%.

Rain chances will come to an end by daybreak Tuesday as the upper
trough moves off to the east and ridging tries to nudge in
overhead. This will allow typical afternoon breeziness to return,
and high temperatures will warm up into the lower to mid 90s by
mid-week. Min RHs will be in the upper single digits to lower
teens and vent rates will generally be fair to good. More moisture
may push back in for the second half of the week.

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 64  86  59  85 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           59  83  52  81 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces              56  84  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              55  81  50  84 /   0  20  10   0
Cloudcroft              42  56  37  60 /   0  30  20  10
Truth or Consequences   58  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  51  86  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               51  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  85  59  85 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City               56  82  50  84 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Hancock            61  88  55  88 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda              56  79  53  80 /   0  10  10   0
Fabens                  61  87  58  86 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  85  54  84 /   0  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          60  83  58  84 /   0  10   0   0
Jornada Range           52  83  50  84 /   0  10   0   0
Hatch                   54  84  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                56  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               56  82  51  84 /   0  10  10   0
Mayhill                 47  65  41  72 /   0  40  20  10
Mescalero               45  66  39  71 /   0  30  20  10
Timberon                46  65  39  69 /   0  30  20  10
Winston                 46  76  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               52  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               53  82  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            42  77  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  48  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   45  84  41  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              49  80  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 49  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  50  85  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  84  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          51  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              49  80  50  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

32/30/26


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