Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
513 FXUS64 KEPZ 132358 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 558 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 544 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected through the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, daytime temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for today and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The monsoon is taking the spotlight once again in today`s forecast, with multiple rounds of storms expected through the late evening hours across the Borderland. An increase in moisture from the southeast, combined with daytime heating and subtle upper- level forcing, will lead to the development of thunderstorms this afternoon. Initial development is anticipated over the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mts and the Black Range, spreading into the lowlands in the late afternoon and evening. Typical monsoon hazards will exist, including moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially in areas that receive repeated convective activity. Outflow winds from stronger storms could reach 35-45 kt, bringing with them a risk of blowing dust. With the modest northerly flow aloft, upper level divergence will be enhanced, leading to improved atmospheric stretching. With that, a few storms may become strong to severe, capable of damaging wind gusts and small to medium-sized hail. The monsoonal flow continues on Monday and Tuesday with additional rounds of thunderstorms. As is common in the monsoon, thunderstorm coverage will remain scattered to possibly numerous, with a very hit- or-miss situation for rainfall and impacts. Gusty winds and localized blowing dust will continue to plague the Borderland, especially given soil drying and lack of widespread wetting rainfall. Upper-level flow will likely remain weak into the midweek with ample moisture availability, allowing for a continuation of daily, diurnally- driven thunderstorm activity. There are some indications of a weak upper low potentially moving through the area towards the end of the week, which could enhance moisture and provide additional lift, increasing the threat of more widespread heavy rainfall. Confidence in the exact timing and strength of these features is low to moderate, but the overall signal suggests a continued elevated risk for thunderstorm and their subsequent hazards. Drier air attempts to work its way in on Saturday, though current indications lean towards a continuation of monsoonal moisture. A subtle reduction in coverage may be the only result. With the increased moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will be lower than the scorchers seen in the previous week throughout the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Thunderstorm activity has been quite widespread this afternoon but activity should start winding down quite a bit after sunset. Models are hinting at some lingering storm activity over the next few hours that would work north to south through around 08Z which would give terminals another shot of rain. Confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAFs except KDMN. May need amendments if this next round of storms occurs. Thunderstorms this afternoon/evening can still have the potential to put out gusty outflow winds, plenty of lightning, and even some BLDU causing reductions in visibilities. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Moisture will remain elevated throughout the period, keeping minimum relative humidity values in the mid to upper teens for most zones, and higher with storm activity. Daily chances for scattered thunderstorms will be present, with gusty outflow winds being the primary concern outside of brief heavy rainfall. Venting conditions will generally range from poor to fair, with some periods of very good venting, especially westward. Consistent rainfall chances will temper critical fire weather conditions, but localized strong winds from thunderstorms still pose a risk for rapid fire spread should a new ignition occur. Additionally, lightning into receptive fuel beds may create new starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 96 76 97 / 50 30 20 10 Sierra Blanca 66 87 67 89 / 50 40 20 20 Las Cruces 67 93 69 95 / 60 40 40 10 Alamogordo 67 91 67 93 / 40 40 10 10 Cloudcroft 50 71 52 71 / 30 70 10 40 Truth or Consequences 68 92 69 95 / 50 50 40 30 Silver City 62 86 62 87 / 60 70 60 70 Deming 69 96 69 97 / 70 50 60 20 Lordsburg 67 94 67 94 / 60 60 70 50 West El Paso Metro 72 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 10 Dell City 68 91 68 93 / 30 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 73 94 75 96 / 50 40 20 20 Loma Linda 64 86 66 88 / 40 40 20 10 Fabens 72 94 73 96 / 50 30 20 0 Santa Teresa 70 92 73 94 / 60 30 30 10 White Sands HQ 71 93 73 94 / 50 40 30 10 Jornada Range 67 92 68 94 / 50 40 30 20 Hatch 68 95 70 97 / 60 50 40 20 Columbus 71 94 72 96 / 70 50 50 10 Orogrande 67 90 69 92 / 30 40 20 10 Mayhill 55 78 55 80 / 30 70 10 30 Mescalero 55 80 55 81 / 30 70 10 40 Timberon 54 76 55 78 / 30 70 10 30 Winston 56 84 57 88 / 60 60 50 60 Hillsboro 63 91 64 93 / 60 50 50 40 Spaceport 65 92 67 94 / 30 40 30 20 Lake Roberts 55 88 56 87 / 60 70 60 70 Hurley 63 89 63 90 / 60 60 60 60 Cliff 62 94 63 94 / 60 70 60 70 Mule Creek 59 90 60 91 / 50 70 60 60 Faywood 63 88 65 90 / 60 60 60 50 Animas 68 93 68 94 / 70 70 70 60 Hachita 67 92 67 93 / 70 70 60 40 Antelope Wells 65 90 66 91 / 80 70 70 60 Cloverdale 64 89 64 86 / 70 80 70 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher