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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232145
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
345 PM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder weather is on the way for Thursday. We will have
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average by Thursday afternoon
and high temperatures 15 to 20 below average on Friday. We could
see freezing temperatures across much of the lowlands. We will
begin a warming trend for the weekend, but more colder air arrives
for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We are having a beautiful day today, but at least temperature wise
that is about to end. A pretty strong cold front will barrel
across the area on Thursday. High temperatures east of the Rio
Grande will occur before noon as the cold front is expected to
arrive in El Paso around noon. The forecast is looking cooler than
yesterday`s and it now looks more likely that some areas in the
lowlands will see freezing temperatures both Friday and Saturday
mornings. The upper level trough that is helping to push the cold
front into the region looks to stay mainly east of the area. I did
continue just some slight chance precipitation chances in the
Sacramento mountains on Thursday night and Friday, but it will be
more like snow flurries than anything else. The trough will be
well to our east on Saturday and we will be under a dry but cool
northwest flow for a few days. That pattern will allow for some,
but not much warming on Saturday. Saturday will start off cold but
we will warm to only 10 degrees below average and then by Sunday
we will be back to seasonal averages.

For the start of next week there is still some differences with
the timing of our 2nd cold front. The GFS is faster and colder,
while the ECMWF is a little slower and not as cold. I cooled us a
bit on Monday, but, it looks like we will bounce back closer to
average by the middle of next week, as an upper level ridge tries
to nose its way into the southwest U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM, light and VRB winds, and SKC with occasional FEW250 will
prevail through at least 09Z Thursday. Afterwards, a strong cold
front will begin to affect all sites between 12 and 15z. Strongest
winds will be at DMN and TCS with sustained winds 15 to 25 knots
and gusts around 30 KTS. FEW-SCT 080 will be possible for ELP,
LRU, and especially TCS after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values this afternoon are starting off in the teens with mid-20s
in the mountains. Winds will remain light through tonight with
direction mainly driven by terrain. Big changes arrive tomorrow
morning beginning in the Sacramento Mountains before sunrise exiting
through the bootheel by early afternoon. The front will bring gusty
winds to most locations with strongest winds along the front range
of the Black Mountains and east of the Otero Mesa. Winds gusts will
reach 40 MPH in those locations. By Thursday evening, winds will
begin to ease for all locations except in Hildago and Southern Grant
counties where winds will finally drop below 10 MPH Friday evening.
RH values will increase behind the front courtesy of temperatures 15
to 20 degrees cooler. RH values peak Friday morning with our coldest
temperatures.

Vent rates remain generally fair to poor through the weekend, except
for Thursday when the front passes through. Vent rates will also
vary dramatically across zones through Thursday evening behind the
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 48  65  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           44  59  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              44  65  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              43  63  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              28  44  24  38 /   0  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences   43  62  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             40  65  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  43  67  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               42  70  40  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      49  66  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               44  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            48  67  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              45  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  48  66  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            44  65  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          47  64  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           38  64  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   39  65  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                45  67  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               45  63  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 30  49  27  48 /   0  10  10   0
Mescalero               31  52  27  48 /   0  10  10   0
Timberon                33  49  27  44 /   0  10  10   0
Winston                 32  62  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  65  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               37  62  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            35  68  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  40  66  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   27  68  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              29  68  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 42  66  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  42  72  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 42  68  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          44  71  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              44  69  38  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz/Brown