Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 201145
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019


.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
The focus for the overnight portion of the short term forecast will
be the exit of Post Tropical Storm Nestor. As whats left of the
system continues to move northeast and into South Carolina,
precipitation and gusty winds are beginning to diminish across the
area. This trend should continue through the rest of the overnight
hours although some lower clouds and patchy fog will linger into the
morning hours on Sunday. After the lower clouds and fog clears, the
rest of Sunday is expected to remain dry with northwest to west winds
and high temperatures in the 70s across the area with lows in the
mid to upper 50s.

A longwave trough working its way towards the area will bring
southwesterly flow aloft to the area on Sunday and into Monday.
Moisture from the Gulf will begin to advect into the area Monday
afternoon ahead of the cold front. While much of the day on Monday
is expected to be quiet ahead of the approaching cold front, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase on Monday
afternoon with likely pops being introduced across far northwestern
Georgia Monday evening and into the overnight hours. Some storms may
become strong as this system works its way into the area later on
Monday. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to be in the 60s in
the mountains with mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere.

Reaves

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Two frontal boundaries expected to impact the CWA in the long term
portion of the forecast.

The first cold front is expected to move through the CWA Monday
night into Tuesday. Models are still showing some indications that
strong thunderstorms are possible, with some potential for an
isolated severe thunderstorm. Upper jet structure and good mid level
dynamics will be present. Since the front is coming through much of
the CWA during the nighttime hours, surface instability will be
minimal but thunderstorms will still be possible. Thunderstorms
will be more likely across the SE parts of the outlook area on
Tuesday as the front continues eastward. Surface instability will be
a bit higher, as heating will be in play. Temps will cool down
behind the cold front for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, but
will quickly moderate during the end of the week.

The second cold front is expected during the weekend. Models are
very divergent in the mid levels for the end of the week into the
weekend. At the surface, the GFS looks stronger over the SE states
with the FROPA, with the ECMWF a bit weaker over the SE states and
stronger over the Mid Atlantic/New England. There are some timing
issues too, with the GFS a good deal faster than the ECMWF.
Regardless, both models are indicating a FROPA for the latter half
of the weekend at this time.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mixed bag of LIFR/IFR cigs, vsbys, and patchy fog across the area
will improve through late morning back to VFR conditions. Sfc
winds are NW and will stay on the west side, at less than 10 kts
through the day today. Winds should shift SE for Monday. Mainly
high clouds and dry weather expected this evening across the
area.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on timing of cig improvement. Medium to
high confidence on all other elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  58  76  63 /  10   5  20  70
Atlanta         76  59  76  61 /   5   5  30  70
Blairsville     73  54  69  54 /  10  10  30  80
Cartersville    77  57  78  57 /   5   5  40  80
Columbus        80  60  82  64 /   5   0  30  70
Gainesville     77  58  73  60 /   5  10  20  80
Macon           80  58  81  66 /   5   5  20  40
Rome            78  57  79  57 /   5   5  60  80
Peachtree City  78  57  78  61 /   5   5  30  70
Vidalia         79  60  83  69 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Reaves


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