Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 040813
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
413 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Region remains under a weak upper-level trough through the short-
term forecast period. Convection should be more widespread today
through Friday but best chances remain around the western and
northern periphery today and across the south and west Friday.
Instability not especially impressive across the forecast area
through the period, but does present enough of a maximum across the
far north this afternoon that combined with a weak frontal boundary
could result in a few strong to severe storms. Main threat would be
damaging winds as mid-level lapse rates a bit to shallow for much of
a hail threat.

20


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The long term portion will be largely dictated by the indirect
effects of Cristobal over the local area and how much associated
deep layer moisture translates northward. As it stands in a
general sense, the GFS still wants to surge the moisture further
northward than the Ecmwf but that said, the latter is trending
more toward the former with the latest runs. This lends itself
nicely to using a blend for pops through much of the extended
period.

This begins on Sat when we really see the most agreement in
placement of moisture axis amongst the long term guidance.
Although certainly the best moisture profile will reside over the
south GA portion, we still have a chance to see 2 inch
precipitable water values encroach upon Central GA. Will be going
high end chance for now for these areas, but could need likely
pops with subsequent forecasts.

Sunday on the other hand probably sees the most difference in the
models with GFS surging 2.30 inch PW values from the south into
the local area while the ECMWF maintains more of a north south
distribution to rain bands and keeps area mostly dry. Again, blend
is the way to go for now with mid range pops for the southern
sections and just isolated for the far north.

Eventually models agree that remnants of Cristobal will make it
far enough north such that tropical moisture has to surge north
with it and impact the local area with higher rain chances. This
looks to be the case for Mon through Wed as likely rain chances
impact central and western sections of the forecast area. Looks
like best shear with this system later next week remains over the
Florida portion but will be monitoring this aspect very closely
through the weekend.

Deese


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate through the forecast
period outside of any scattered convection. Will likely see patchy
MVFR or lower ceilings between 06Z and 14Z, however any impacts at
the TAF sites are not certain for now. Also seeing the potential for
some MVFR ceilings developing again after 00Z, but confidence
remains low concerning the coverage and timing. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop after 15Z, becoming more scattered
to widespread between 20Z and 02Z before diminishing after 02Z.
Winds will remain generally south to west 6kt or less, increasing to
6-10kt after 15Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High confidence on wind direction/speed, medium confidence for
ceilings and timing of any convection impacting the airfield.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  69  86  70 /  50  40  50  30
Atlanta         87  69  85  70 /  50  50  50  30
Blairsville     82  64  81  64 /  60  60  60  40
Cartersville    88  68  86  68 /  60  50  50  30
Columbus        90  70  89  71 /  50  40  50  40
Gainesville     85  68  85  69 /  60  50  50  30
Macon           89  70  89  70 /  40  30  50  30
Rome            90  68  88  68 /  60  50  50  30
Peachtree City  87  68  86  69 /  50  40  50  30
Vidalia         89  71  89  72 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...20


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