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000
FXUS63 KFGF 040807
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Convection chances and strength will be the main challenges for
the period.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough axis/cold
front moving through our MN counties early this morning. MU CAPE
values are in the 500-1000 J/kg range which is enough for some
lightning, but the effective bulk shear on the SPC meso page is
pretty light. Storms so far have been staying below severe limits
and do not think there will be much strengthening before the
boundary pushes east later this morning. Adjusted POPs a bit
further south due to some more development in west central MN. The
frontal boundary will stall just southeast of our CWA later today
with weak high pressure keeping conditions pretty quiet much of
the day. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Zonal flow aloft continues into tonight, and models are in a
fairly good agreement on a jet streak approaching from the west.
There will be good forcing, but instability in our area on the
cooler side of the frontal boundary will be pretty weak. 06Z NAM
has a narrow band of good MU CAPE extending into the far southern
RRV, but 00Z run did not show this and seems to be an outlier.
HREF updraft helicity tracks keep most of the stronger convection
to the south of us, but models overall do show some decent precip
late this afternoon and into tonight. Think activity will be
similar or even a bit weaker than our current convection and that
severe chances will be minimal. The upper ridge moving into the
western Plains on Friday, with surface high pressure and pretty
tranquil conditions. Temps will be a few degrees cooler in the
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

There will be several periods of active weather during the long term
period.  The most impactful period will be this coming weekend, with
chances for precipitation increasing throughout the day Saturday and
widespread showery activity with strong thunderstorms Saturday night
and Sunday.

Friday night through Saturday morning...dry with overnight lows
falling into the mid to upper 40s across northeastern ND and
northwestern MN...remainder of CWA will remain in the 50s.  Light
winds across NW MN and easterly flow west of the Red River Valley,
keeping a dry airmass in place prior to a wet weekend.

Weekend into early next week...chances for precipitation increase
throughout the day Saturday, with precipitable water values
increasing throughout the weekend. An upper ridge slides east of the
area Saturday, setting up SW flow aloft into the Dakotas. Ensemble
products max out R-climate moisture values, with a band of 1.5 inch
PWAT values sliding over the area early Sunday morning.  R-climate
values also max out a strong H850 jet, showing 50+ knots over cntrl
ND during the late Saturday night into Sunday morning period. This
is resulting in significant H850 moisture transport into the area,
which could result in heavy rainshowers associated with strong
thunderstorms on Sunday being fed by the strong LLJ.  The impressive
moisture values continue into Monday evening...so while convection
may not be as strong Monday, a continuation of showers and
thunderstorms is possible as the SW flow aloft pattern continues
through Tuesday morning.

Tue through Thu...an upper low continues to linger somewhere over
central CA into the northern plains, depending on which model
solution you look at, and with cyclonic flow in the area the low
chance POPs continue through Day 6, when drier weather spreads west
to east on Thursday.  R-climate values tend to support this with
average PWAT values returning mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This first batch of showers and storms will pass away from most of
the TAF sites shortly. This will be followed by decreasing clouds
until the next round arrives late Thursday afternoon. At this
point, KFAR looks like it may have better chances for this second
round.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon