Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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371
FXPQ50 PGUM 110712
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
512 PM ChST Wed Dec 11 2019

.Marianas Synopsis...
Another quiet afternoon for the Marianas with moderate trades and
isolated showers. Satellite imagery shows a weak trade disturbance
approaching the islands from the east. Seas at the buoys are steady
between 4 and 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Weather will be dry the next 7 days, with partly cloudy skies and
isolated showers. Winds will increase the next few days, becoming
breezy by Friday, and lasting into next week--typical dry season.

&&

.Marine...
Forecast is unchanged--still expecting slowly increasing trades and
seas the next few days, peaking at fresh to strong over the weekend
with seas going over 10 feet. Rip risk could become high Friday, and
almost certainly by Saturday, as surf reaches 9 feet along east
facing reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A surface trough remains south of Kosrae this afternoon, as expected.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in two separate
bands north of the trough. The first is over Kosrae with a second
band that formed over Pohnpei. The trough will continue to slowly
drift westward through Thursday, keeping scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over Kosrae through Thursday afternoon.
While showers over Pohnpei should decrease by morning, isolated
thunderstorms are expected to continue through Thursday night.
Moderate to fresh trades will become fresh to strong by the end of
the week as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north. This
surge will bring a wetter pattern to the region this weekend.

Seas and surf will rise the next few days across the region. Winds
and seas will become hazardous for small craft, and surf will likely
become hazardous along north and east facing reefs near the end of
the week or over the weekend. Inundation is possible across the
Marshalls late this week and this weekend as the trade-wind surge
coincides with the full moon tides. Guidance continues to suggest
seas and inundation will be lower than the event a couple weeks ago.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
An overall dry pattern remains in place over most of western
Micronesia this afternoon. This dry period will likely continue
through the end of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
by Friday at Chuuk, and at Yap and Koror over the weekend due to
a trade-wind surge moving in from eastern Micronesia.

The stronger trade winds will generate larger seas and surf,
especially at Chuuk and Yap. Seas could become hazardous to small
craft by this weekend at Chuuk and Yap. Surf could become hazardous
along north facing reefs for all 3 locations and along east facing
reefs at Chuuk.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/Kleeschulte



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