Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 121040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
340 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Clearing will be seen today before a return of showers occurs
toward the end of the week. Normal to above normal afternoon
highs will continue across the valley before a heat wave occurs
this weekend.


Clear skies observed again across the Central California Interior
this morning as the Sierra Nevada convection diminished before
midnight. A trough pushing through the Pacific Northwest allowed
for some dry and stable air to surge into the region as the threat
of convection will be minimal this afternoon. Satellite-derived
instability imagery correlates well with SPC convective (DAY-1)
analysis as well as short range model convective parameters for
Wednesday afternoon. Will not mention any convective activity
across the Sierra Nevada today. In addition, will see minimal
change in temperatures as the area will see another hot afternoon.
Change is on the way as moisture from Elida pushes into the
region for a return to possible showers later this week.

Elida is slowing moving northwest and being steered by the four
corners high and the area of weakness off the Southern California
Coast. While still a wild-card on what possible moisture may surge
toward Central California, a potential for a slight chance of
thunderstorms is starting to be picked-up on short range models.
Therefore, will mention a change in the weather as morning and
afternoon thunderstorms may exist across the southern portion of
the district (mainly the mountains and deserts) on Thursday.
Lingering showers and thunderstorms may continue over the southern
Sierra Nevada on Friday. In addition to the convective activity,
the introduction of moisture may also introduce a brief cool down
during the short term period before the ridge pattern rebounds
this weekend.

Models maintain their high confidence level in the continuation
of the blocking pattern. While some uncertainty is still showing-
up toward the weekend period, all models are still leaning toward
the development of building the ridge pattern as the current
trough exits the region. Therefore, temperatures which will see a
slight cool-down will then begin another warming trend going into
the weekend. Model upper air and surface analysis is starting to
indicate another possible heat-wave this weekend. Based on the
possible weather set-up, valley max temperatures could reach
values of 103 to 107 during the weekend period. A excessive heat
watch is currently in effect which could extend into Monday and
maybe toward the middle of next week.


VFR conditions will prevail over the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.


On Wednesday August 12 2020...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kern County and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Further
information is available at



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for CAZ179>191-198-199.



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