Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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154
FXUS66 KHNX 131108
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...correction
National Weather Service Hanford CA
405 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings were extended through
Saturday evening...

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather can be expected over the district
through next weekend. High temperatures will be slightly above
normal over much of the district through Tuesday. Triple digit
heat will become widespread in the Kern County desert as early
as Monday then spread into the San Joaquin Valley, lower foothills
and the Kern county mountains below 3,000 feet by Wednesday.
Dangerously hot, near-record temperatures will impact the San
Joaquin Valley, lower foothills and the desert Thursday through
at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Central California is currently in an atmospheric
battleground between an upper level trough over the Eastern
Pacific and a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over
New Mexico. For the past several days, the upper level trough
has dominated our weather pattern, produced an onshore flow and
kept temperatures over much of our CWA below normal. Unfortunately
the high pressure ridge will win the battle and push the Eastern
Pacific trough out of the way as it builds westward into the
Golden State this week and takes up residence over the Four
Corners region. Hot weather associated with this strong area of
high pressure will make its presence felt over much of the central
California interior by the middle of this week and for many days
thereafter, possibly through next Sunday. There will be a sprinkling
of 100 degree high temperatures in the Kern county desert this
afternoon and Monday afternoon before triple digit heat becomes
widespread in this region Tuesday. In the meantime, the Eastern
Pacific trough will still have enough influence on the San Joaquin
Valley and lower foothills to keep afternoon temperatures from
getting much higher than the mid 90s each day through Tuesday.

Once here, our next heat wave will be prolonged and relentless.
The cumulative effects of the intense heat may cause potentially
serious health issues for heat sensitive individuals later this
week. Thursday through Saturday will be the hottest days in the
San Joaquin Valley,lower foothills and the Kern County desert
with high temperatures of 105 degrees and higher. In the hottest
locations, thermometer readings will top 110 degrees in the valley
and foothills and climb as high as 115 degrees in the Kern county
desert. Nighttime lows above 80 degrees are likely in parts of the
desert as well as Bakersfield. We`re pretty confident that new
heat records will be established at a number of climate stations
later this week.  Fresno has a 65 percent chance of reaching its
record high of 107 degrees Friday and a 74 percent chance of
reaching its record high of 108 degrees Saturday. In Bakersfield,
there is a 76 percent chance that Friday`s record high of 106 degrees
will be reached and there is a 60 percent chance that Saturday`s
record high of 109 degrees will be reached.

The question many may be asking at this point is, "Is there a
definitive end in sight to this heat wave?" Well, perhaps. The
ensembles forecast the high pressure ridge to weaken and drift
southward into old Mexico by the end of next weekend. If so, we
should expect a lowering of high temperatures in the 7 to 10 day
period. Thermometer readings could still reach the century mark
in the San Joaquin Valley, lower foothills and certainly the Kern
County desert beyond next Sunday.  If the center of the ridge slips
far enough south, it would allow a cooling onshore flow to return
to central California by June 21st, which coincidentally is the
first full day of Summer. (The Summer solstice begins at 8:31 pm PDT,
June 20th.)

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior for at least the next 24 hours.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Saturday evening
for CAZ199.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for
CAZ198.

Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Saturday
evening for CAZ195-196.

Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday
evening for CAZ179>191-197.

&&

$$

synopsis...Durfee
public/aviation/fw...Durfee
PIO/IDSS...BS

weather.gov/hanford



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