Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231105
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Southerly winds have returned on the backside of a retreating
surface ridge moving SE into the Gulf coast states.  This southerly
flow will be short lived as a cold frontal boundary moving in for
the late afternoon will lead to a wind shift to the NW and N for
late this afternoon into this evening.  Expect one more mild day,
before this front arrives, today as the SW flow will lead to some
downslope flow and some compression heating ahead of the approaching
front. So will go with max temps close to climo normals.

Not expecting much more than a wind shift as the front pushes
through, as moisture will be very limited, so mainly just a gradual
temp cool down.  A much better surge of colder air looks to move
into the area late tonight through early on Thu, as a secondary cold
front surges south, as a vigorous shortwave (currently located over
Montana) drops south through the Rockies into the southern plains by
Thu night. Increasing ascent and cooling of the mid levels moves
south with the secondary cold front. So could see a mid level
baroclinic zone and frontogenesis area associated with it, drop
south with a chance of precipitation initially in central Ks late
tonight, with this baroclinic zone and precip chance slowly sagging
south for the morning hours Thu.  There is some indication of some
ice crystals in the temp profile for portions of central KS late
tonight, which hints as the possibility of a mix of rain/snow late
tonight but surface temps stay above freezing until the precip
pushes south, so will keep just a cold rain mention for now.

Looks like a chilly and rainy day for most of southern KS for the
daytime hours on Thu, as max temps will struggle to make it out of
the upper 40s as cold advection dominates the pattern for Thu.
Expect to see the highest pops in southern KS, where the mid level
baroclinic zone will hang out the longest.

As the southward dropping shortwave moves into the southern plains,
both the GFS and Nam-WRF turn the shortwave east and deepen it, just
to the south of the forecast area, with the potential for rain
showers moving back into the eastern half of KS for Fri afternoon
through early Sat. Latest GFS is a little more progressive in
pulling this system E-SE of the area while the ECMWF lingers it
longer.  So made some adjustments to pops with collaboration to pull
pops further east faster than the National blend suggests.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Expect to see a brief and warmup and clearing conditions for Sat
night through Sun.  But this warm up will be short lived as a surge
of colder air on Sunday night will drive high temperatures back into
the 50s for much of central KS. Cold air will deepen across the
Plains states for Tue night and Wed with a secondary surge of colder
air, with much below normal temperatures anticipated. Highs may
struggle to climb out of the 40s for some areas while lows fall
below freezing across all of the forecast area.

Medium range models differ on how much moisture will be available as
this colder air moves into the area, with GFS showing a drier
solution, while the ECMWF and the National blend, show a chance of
wintry precip moving into the area for Mon night through Tue night.
For now will go a chance of snow in central KS and mix of rain and
snow elsewhere, for the middle of the week, but there is lots of
uncertainty during this time frame.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

There are 2 foci: 1) LLWS from 45-55kts 1,500-2,000ft and 2) the
arrival/passage of a cold front that`ll cross C KS this morning,
SC KS this afternoon & SE KS toward evening. Aside from the usual
S/SW-NW wind shift with NW winds that`ll increase to a sustained
17 to 22kts there`ll be no concerns until 02-04Z hen post-frontal
MVFR cigs would spread into C KS. TAFs issued early this afternoon
& certainly tonight would provide details when confidence on
timing will have greatly increased.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  40  49  34 /   0  10  50  30
Hutchinson      71  38  49  30 /   0  20  40  20
Newton          71  39  48  32 /   0  20  40  20
ElDorado        69  41  48  34 /   0  10  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   72  43  49  35 /   0  10  60  40
Russell         68  35  49  27 /   0  20  20  10
Great Bend      69  35  48  27 /   0  20  30  10
Salina          69  38  50  29 /   0  30  20  10
McPherson       70  38  48  30 /   0  20  30  20
Coffeyville     71  44  50  38 /   0  30  70  60
Chanute         69  43  49  37 /   0  10  70  50
Iola            70  43  49  37 /   0  10  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    71  44  49  38 /   0  20  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS


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