Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 292358
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

A warm and breezy weekend is on tap, as unseasonably strong upper
level high pressure builds east over Mid-America, and lee troughing
strengthens across the High Plains. Thickness values will support
forecast high temperatures climbing through the 80s, with near 90
degrees possible west of I-135 by Sunday. Thunderstorm-wise,
thinking best chances will remain across Nebraska and northern
Kansas late tonight through Sunday night, within a zone of
persistent 850-700 warm/moist advection, in response to an
approaching stout elevated mixed layer. Thinking this activity
should remain generally north of the I-70 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Well above normal temperatures are expected much of next week, as an
unseasonably strong upper ridge continues to build over Mid-America.
Forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s and low
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s will be more reminiscent of
typical July and August than early June. The warm temperatures
aloft and associated lack of low level or upper level focus will
also support dry weather for most through Wednesday morning, with
breezy southerly winds prevailing each day as persistent lee
troughing sets up across the High Plains.

Thunderstorm-wise...The past few deterministic runs of the GFS,
ECMWF, and GEM progress a decaying frontal zone south into the
region Wednesday through Friday, in response to shortwave energy
progressing through southeast Canada. This should support increased
off-and-on thunderstorm chances across the region Wednesday
evening through Thursday night. Despite weak forcing, relatively
weak deep layer shear, and warm temperatures aloft, strong
instability should support at least an isolated severe storm
threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

*VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours
*Gusty south winds Saturday (central/south-central KS)

High pressure overhead this evening will shift east tonight,
allowing southerly winds to return to the area by Saturday. Those
southerly winds will be gusty, especially central and south-central
KS. TSRA developing over the northern Rockies this evening should
weaken as they move southeast into the Central Plains tonight.
However, it`s possible some lower mid-level clouds may glance the
area, especially KSLN down through KCNU. Any lower CIGs should
remain north and east of central and southern KS through Saturday
afternoon.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: TSRA may develop over Nebraska or northern Kansas
Saturday evening. If they do, they will likely have a tendency to
drift ESE and may pass close to, or over, northern sections of
central KS (ie. KRSL/KSLN). This could be accompanied by a lower
SCT/BKN deck of clouds. Confidence in lower clouds and TSRA
impacting any of our terminals Saturday evening/night is moderate.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  82  61  85 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      58  82  61  85 /   0   0  10   0
Newton          56  80  59  83 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        56  79  59  82 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   57  81  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         58  86  62  89 /  10  10  10  10
Great Bend      58  87  63  88 /  10  10  10   0
Salina          58  82  61  84 /  10  10  20  10
McPherson       57  81  61  84 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     56  79  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         55  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            54  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    55  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RM



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