Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 160523
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
121 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 06z Thu]

Currently VFR conditions across TAF sites. Large area of IFR
conditions N and W of our forecast area is forecast to remain north
of TAF sites. Bands of showers will continue to spread across the
area, with most widespread rain overnight through morning across SE
GA...more widely scattered further S. Could see some areas of MVFR
CIGs with the showers. 5kt southerly surface winds overnight will
become more westerly 10-15 kts during the day Today with occasional
gusts 18-20 kts.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [854 PM EDT]...

.UPDATE...

Latest analysis shows nearly stationary front near the I-10 corridor
with the best instability over northeast FL, although weak,
supporting a little more convective echoes per radar trends with
scattered showers and an isolated embedded thunderstorm or two. SB
CAPE instability is about 400-800 J/kg over northeast FL, which
will more or less remain intact overnight based on latest
forecasts from RAP. Further north over southeast GA, better rain
chances exist as shortwave disturbances traverse that area from
west to east, enhancing lift and spreading stratiform rains and
embedded showers there. A few storms will be possible overnight
but weak lapse rates and little instability aloft should keep them
brief and isolated.

As sfc frontal wave over TN valley consolidates and moves east-
northeast tonight, the frontal boundary near I-10 will push
northward. Scattered to numerous showers and an isolated storm
expected and not expecting much change in the forecast at this
time. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  67  81  50  73  48 /  80  30   0   0   0
SSI  72  83  59  74  58 /  70  40  10   0   0
JAX  71  87  59  78  56 /  70  50  10   0   0
SGJ  72  86  65  78  61 /  20  60  20   0   0
GNV  71  86  62  79  56 /  60  90  20   0   0
OCF  72  86  66  82  59 /  50  80  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for Putnam.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&


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