Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 111844
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
244 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.Near Term.../through Wednesday/...

The region will be between high pressure to the east and a trough of
low pressure to the northwest at the surface. A resultant light
southwest flow between these features is expected each day, with the
east coast sea breeze pushing inland past coastal counties each
afternoon.

A trough of low pressure at 500mb is present over region
this afternoon, with a short wave moving south southeast across
area. The flow at that level is from the north northwest, so
anticipate storms to drift south southeast toward the coast later
in the afternoon to early evening. Once the convection collides
with the east coast sea breeze it will help to strengthen
activity near the coast. Precipitable water values around 2
indicate potential for heavy rain. Activity will diminish later
this evening, with loss of day time heating.

Weak high pressure aloft expected Wednesday, which would lead to
slower moving storms, and increase the potential for heavy rain, as
precipitable water values remain around 2.

Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period.

&&

.Short Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/...

At the surface, the region will be between high pressure to the
south southeast and a trough to the northwest this period. Weak high
pressure will be aloft at 500mb through Thursday, then an upper
trough will dig in across southeast US through Saturday. Diurnally
driven convection expected Thursday afternoon. Afternoon and evening
diurnally initiated storms will be expected Friday and Saturday
afternoons as well. The upper trough will help to provide
additional lift, resulting in increased coverage and intensity of
storms. Activity will diminish in the evenings with loss of day time
heating, leading to mainly dry conditions overnight.

Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period.

&&

.Long Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday/...

A cold front will move into the southeastern US Saturday night into
Sunday, and stall near the GA/FL line through Sunday night. This
boundary will be the focus for convection, especially during the
afternoon hours. The best chance for storms will be along and south
of the boundary, where best moisture will be. This boundary will
weaken Sunday night, but another front will move to near the GA/FL
line Monday night into Tuesday. Another period of stormy weather
expected into Tuesday, especially along the boundary and to the
south.

Temperatures will trend near normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

The region will be between high pressure to the east and a trough to
the northwest through Friday. A cold front will settle along the US
east coast over the weekend near the GA and FL line.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Wednesday
              NE FL: Moderate through Wednesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  93  74  90  73 /  60  60  50  90  40
SSI  76  89  77  88  77 /  30  60  60  80  50
JAX  74  91  74  91  74 /  60  60  50  80  30
SGJ  74  90  74  90  75 /  40  60  50  80  30
GNV  73  91  74  90  74 /  60  60  40  80  20
OCF  73  91  74  90  74 /  60  60  30  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&



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