Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 190820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
120 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Perhaps the strongest frontal system of the season so
far will cross the state today. Snow and rain showers north of
about US 50, and windy everywhere. Bridges and overpasses could
become briefly icy but travel should not be impacted otherwise. A
drying, warming, and less windy trend starts Monday.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

Very tight thermal gradient aloft produces a strong band of
frontogenesis over the Great Basin this afternoon, increasing
surface winds pre- through post-frontal. Wind advisories and Red
Flag Warnings in effect through 11 pm PDT (midnight MDT) tonight
for northern Nevada. The coldest air aloft is well up over the
Pacific Northwest where low topped, cold air CB`s are producing
lightning over the ocean west of Washington. Do not believe this
extremely cold air aloft will dig far enough south to steepen the
lapse rates sufficiently for thunder here, but will tighten the
soundings so that snow showers will fall in the mountains of
northern and even central Nevada, and some in the higher valleys.
Valley accumulations nil to very small, with mountain
accumulations of a couple inches in higher ranges of White Pine
County, to 1-3" in ranges such as the Rubies, Santa Rosas, and
Independence, and half a foot in the Jarbidge. Travel issues not
expected, as they will mainly fall in the very highest portions.

Dry northwest flow sets up Sunday in advance of a massive eastern
Pacific ridge. Saturday`s highs in the 40s to 60s, and Sunday`s,
despite more sunshine in the 30s to about 60, with the continued
low level cold advection.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday. Main weather system
will be an upper trough in the mid-section of the United States
Sunday night with northwest flow across Nevada. There will be
upper ridge off shore in the eastern Pacific. All model solutions
are showing the strong upper ridge slowly moving east. What this
means for northern and central Nevada is rather quiet weather.
There is going to be a weak impulse moving through the flow
Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing decrease in heights. Some ghost
pops have been kept in the forecast for mainly sections in
northeast Elko county. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be in the
50s and 60s for much of the area with overnight lows in the teens
and 20s, with some 30s in the central parts of the forecast area
for the seven day period.


.AVIATION...There will be a cold front dropping into northern
NV today. With this front, KWMC, KBAM and KEKO will see light
shower activity. This will begin early this morning in the VC of
KWMC, spreading eastward in the late morning through early
afternoon. Best chance for showers is near KEKO, where MVFR cigs
will be likely with the main band of showers along with a possible
tempo IFR cig. Winds will be moderate to strong across the
region, strongest in northern Nevada. Mountains will be obscured
at all sites and en route.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Central and
Western Humboldt County-Eastern Elko County-Eastern Humboldt
County and Northwestern Elko County-Northern Nye County/Lander
and Eureka Counties South of Highway 50-Southwestern and Central
Elko County-White Pine County.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
for Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East
Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko
County-Southwestern Elko County.



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