Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 272159
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
259 PM PDT Wed May 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Warm high pressure dominates with near record high
temperatures by Friday. Isolated thunderstorms possible near the
Idaho border Thursday and Friday, otherwise dry weather continues
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Fair amount of moisture cuts across northern Nevada with
precipitable water at 0.75 inches per morning 12Z sounding, ideal
for convective potential. What is lacking is a deep layered lapse
rates and a feature aloft to trigger more convection. HRRR and RAP
models show some isolated cell development that tracks east
toward the Utah deserts late this afternoon. Any convective
development wanes quickly early evening. Farther west, isolated
storms that form over northeast California may drift into the
Sheldon refuge area.

Warm ridge axis stays over Nevada before shifting east into Utah
Friday. Some moisture lingers into Thursday and Friday afternoon
across the far north, so an isolated storm may occur in Jarbidge
vicinity, otherwise dry and warmer. Inverted thermal trough
strengthens Friday in advance of deep closed low circulation
approaching the SoCal coast. Desert bottoms will be in the upper
90s with the US50 communities near 90.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday.

Overview:
Early Saturday, a fully occluded system lifts north into central
CA. Ahead of it, lee side trof forms in western NV. By the
afternoon, the strong jet core associated with this system shifts
into western NV as the upper low lifts and fills into far southern
OR. All of this, creates a tight surface pressure gradient across
central Nevada, and a very dry atmosphere profile across of all of
the area. By Sunday, the now 500mb trof lifts well to the north as
whats left of the boundary falls apart across the area,
relaxing the surface pressure gradient before another system lifts
north and impacts CA Sunday afternoon. Once again, the long ridge
is just strong enough to keep the bulk of moisture just west of
the area. By Monday, another systems lifts north into CA, but this
time is further east (slightly) as the overall 500mb long wave
trof off the west coast shifts closer to the coast. Now, the track
of this system as it lifts north is still in doubt due to
uncertainty in the downstream 500mb ridge. Either this system lift
into the area as a 500mb low closes in southern CA by Wednesday,
or the four corners high builds northeast, weakening this system
it pulls back to the NW, and forming a large cut off 500mb low
well off the southern CA coast. The first solution increasing the
odds for precipitation, while the second keep the area pretty much
dry.

Sensible Weather:

Precipitation:
Blowing dust is anticipated Saturday...maybe Sunday and Monday. A
thunderstorm or high-based shower is possible in far western
Humboldt or in the Jarbidge Mtns Saturday and Sunday. Monday
through Wednesday see an overall increase in convection but still
rather low given the differences in models/ensembles overall
synoptic pattern. The highest (albeit in the low 20s) chances
through this period are in far western Humboldt county and near
the NV/OR and NV/ID borders

Winds:
Confidence is high that advisory levels winds (S to SW) occur
Saturday, and possibly Sunday and Monday in central or eastern NV,
although far less confident on Sunday and Monday. Gust over 50 mph
are possible in the higher terrain on Saturday. NAEFS anomalies
are hinting at 4+ for 700mbs so possibility remains of warning
level winds if the core of the jet shifts more to eastern NV.

Temperatures:
Slight cooling trend but still above average (mainly 80s). Some
sites may only climb into the 70s beyond Sunday is cloud cover is
more than anticipated. Due to slight increase in moisture, not
expecting a drop off in low temps...50s with some 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR at all sites. Showers or t-storms should stay to the northeast
of KEKO this afternoon/evening. All other sites see some mid or
high level cloud cover before clearing out tonight. Less in the
way of cloud cover tomorrow but increasing temperatures means an
increase in density altitude...well above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fuel status remains not critical, but current status may change
due to the anomalous temperatures for 2-3 days with valleys
reaching the 90s. Strong gusty winds will develop, particularly
over eastern Nevada on Saturday afternoon. See Wind section in the
long term discussion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Melting mountain snow from rising daytime temperatures
is resulting in through the week across mountain, resulting in
rises on streams and creeks. Flooding is not anticipated but
Lamoille Creek and Jarbidge River stand the best chance of seeing
elevated flows. The overall day to day trend for both is upwards,
with both exhibiting a diurnal peak in the late evenings.

&&

.CLIMATE...High pressure over the region brings exceptionally
warm temperatures through Saturday, running 20-25 degrees above
normal. This may result in daily record highs. Please continue to
monitor us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSElko or
Twitter at https://www.twitter.com/NWSElko for additional climate
comparisons.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

88/85/85/88



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