Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Breezy westerly
winds expected to develop again for PVW and LBB by Monday


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

Cooler air aloft today and tomorrow will moderate afternoon highs
from what they were Sunday. Expect highs both days to be in the
upper 60s or lower 70s. Main forecast concern today is increasing
westerly winds and very low relative humidity values, especially
in or western zones. Overnight humidities have only edged up into
the 20s over the western and southwest South Plains where dew
points are in the single digits. We will issue a Rangland Fire
Danger Statement for western zones for this afternoon into the
evening as RH values drop toward 10 percent and sustained winds
increase to near 20kts.

Wednesday still looks to be the warmest day of the upcoming week
with highs in the 70s or lower 80s.

Much cooler weather is expected for Thursday into the weekend as
an upper trough digs into the Southern Plains. The evolutions of
this upper system brings about a lot of forecast uncertainty for
that same period with two possible scenarios for our area. One
following the ECMWF/UKMET and CMC solutions which gives us cold
and wet, while solutions following the GFS give us cooler, but
more dry and mild weather.

The raw output from the ECMWF which cuts off an upper low over
eastern New Mexico then digs it south into West Texas before
ejecting it northeast has enough cold air for snow in parts of
our western zones. Also, it would give us precipitation chances
for nearly 48 hours.

On the other side of the possible solutions, the GFS shows an
upper trough sliding by to our north giving us mostly clear skies
and dry-mild weather.

At this point, we still lack any strong guidance that would
indicate one solutions is more likely than the other. As such,
we continue to advise everyone to look at updated guidance and be
aware of the very different possible weather scenarios in our
local area.




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