Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 261945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

High based showers will continue to affect the region through the
evening. Very little CAPE was available late this afternoon within
a deeply mixed atmosphere. Some strong downdraft winds may be
possible until this activity dissipates. Large scale subsidence
will continue to spread into the area overnight on the back side
of a slow moving upper level low.

This upper low currently centered over North Texas will slide a
bit farther to the east tomorrow. Most if not all shower activity
is expected to remain to the east of the Rolling Plains tomorrow
afternoon and evening. If any activity were to sneak into the
Rolling Plains, it would again likely be high based like today.
The Rolling Plains will generally be cool tomorrow in closer
proximity to the upper low and expected mid level cloud cover. A
weak short wave will be rotating around the low but will keep a
bulk of the lift to the east of the FA. Furthermore, instability
will continue to be limited with values on the order of less than
100 J/kg. At the same time, a surface trough will move through on
Wednesday shifting winds to the north on the Caprock.

There could be one more day of precipitation this week Thursday
afternoon/evening as the models are hinting at a shortwave moving
across the region in northerly flow aloft. 00Z and 06Z model runs
had a few areas of precipitation across the Rolling Plains but
the 12Z models have removed most of those showers and have opted
to keep the forecast dry. The slow-moving closed low will
gradually weaken into an open wave and move east by the end of
the week allowing a ridge to build across the area for the
weekend. Temperatures won`t get too out of control and will remain
in the upper 80s to lower 90s under the ridge. Surface wind will
swing back to the south to southeast which will gradually pull
higher amounts of boundary layer moisture into the region so it
may feel a bit muggy, especially for Sunday into Monday.

As the ridge slides east, the next closed low along the Pacific
Coast will start to take shape for the middle of next week.
Increasing cyclonic flow will help the lee surface trough to
deepen and we may see the return of the dryline across eastern New
Mexico by the end of the forecast. Models remain dry through the
extended as there will be a pretty stout cap in place but this
will need to be watched as we head into next week for the
potential for the next round of thunderstorms.





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