067
FXUS64 KLUB 111936 CCA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
236 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A broad conveyor of isentropic ascent continued this afternoon well
north of a stationary front draped near the Rio Grande. This ascent
has been enhanced at times by a few ripples in southwest upper flow
downstream of an upper low near the Four Corners. One of these
ripples was sampled by morning RAOBs over Far West TX and can now be
seen about to pass MAF`s 88D as shown by SE winds at 700 mb veering
SW. This impulse is driving scattered to numerous elevated showers
and storms from Midland to Lubbock this afternoon with the
expectation for this activity to dwindle from west to east later
this afternoon from west to east as the H7 wave departs.

By this evening, NBM`s PoPs look too biased by multiple runs of the
HRRR that depict robust upslope storms from southeast NM racing east
and becoming elevated over the South Plains. While not unlikely,
believe we`re more likely to see a tamer version of this scenario
pan out hence only 20-40 PoPs. The greater signal for storms tonight
is across northeast NM under an increasingly difluent flow and nose
of ample moisture advection all taking aim ahead of the approaching
upper low. An uptick in WAA ahead of this low and veering low-level
flow will pull the stationary front north overnight as a warm front.
As this warm front becomes more N-S oriented toward daybreak over
the CWA, PoPs will favor areas off the Caprock where elevated ascent
is greatest. Farther northwest, it`s not out of the question that
the tail end of an MCS from nern NM grazes our southwest Panhandle
counties which could also throw a wildcard into the afternoon setup
in the form of an outflow boundary. Even without this outflow, the
surface pattern by midday becomes more interesting as a weak surface
low emerges anywhere from AMA and LBB with a dryline to boot. How
far east this dryline mixes is contingent on any lingering precip and
clouds off the Caprock. Given these scenarios in the past, wouldn`t
be surprised to see cool easterly flow off the Caprock retard the
dryline closer to I27 by the afternoon as shown by various higher
res models. As such, PoPs were nudged westward a bit. Severe
potential may be limited to a smaller E-W corridor if areas off
the Caprock fail to recover from earlier precip and clouds.
Still,areas immediately ahead of the dryline look to see around
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with deep layer shear of 40-50 knots, so some
supercells (surface based this time) are on the table. Tomorrow`s
W-E gradient in high temps may need considerable sharpening if
stratus off the Caprock looks to more stubborn.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Lingering showers Monday morning across the far southeastern TX
Panhandle will quickly come to an end around daybreak as the upper
level system tracks out of the region. Thanks to an overnight
front, northerly winds will help keep temperatures from climbing
too much with highs in upper 70s to low 80s expected. Shortwave
ridging will move into the region as the shortwave trough ejects
into the Central Plains which will influence relatively quiet and
warm conditions across the FA, with above seasonal normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s expected. Northerly winds
will begin to veer out of the southeast Tuesday as a surface low
over eastern NM develops. This southerly component to the wind
will work to pump in low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
beginning as early as Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble guidance
continues to hint at our next chance of rainfall Wednesday and
Thursday as ridging departs to the east as a shortwave trough
track through the desert southwest from the Baja Peninsula. Ahead
of the trough, disturbances in the flow aloft and subtropical jet
will provide efficient elevated instability across the FA for
shower and thunderstorm development. Strong to severe storms may
be possible with forecast models depicting a favorable environment
with MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg and increased amounts of
shear. Seeing that this is still a few days out, details on the
evolution and timing will become more clear and be re-evaluated in
the next forecast package.

Much warmer and drier conditions return by the end of the work week
as the upper level shortwave tracks out of the region and upper
level ridging builds back in. Northerly winds early Friday morning
will begin to back out of the southwest as surface troughing
develops and amplifies over southeastern CO. These conditions will
help influence above seasonal normal temperatures Friday in the mid
to upper 80s. Saturday looks to be the hottest day of the week in
the 90s area-wide as breezy southwesterly winds prevail around 15 to
20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Ceilings are likely to remain VFR through this evening with
periodic SHRA and TS gradually tapering after sunset. Later
tonight, stratus is likely to fall to MVFR from W-E with an
outside chance of IFR layers and light fog at times. Not until
late Sunday morning or early afternoon do we see VFR returning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93