Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 131541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1041 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

.UPDATE...Morning Update

It`s a beautiful Thursday across the Mid-South! High pressure
across the Ohio Valley region has led to dry and sunny conditions.
Current temperatures are in the 60s. Highs this afternoon will
reach the upper 60s to low 70s. No major updates needed as
forecast is on track.



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021/


Tranquil weather will persist across the Mid-South through the end
of the week as surface high pressure remains over the Ohio Valley.
With dry air in place, expect warm days followed by chilly
nights. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s
today. Highs will then climb into the lower to mid 70s on Friday.
Lows will drop down into the 40s tonight with a few locations
dropping within a few degrees of record lows.

The warming trend will continue into the weekend as the surface
high shifts east and winds turn around to the south. A warm front
will move northward through the area Saturday Night into Sunday
morning. A few showers could develop along and north of the
front, primarily affecting portions of Northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee. Expect any precip to
lift north with the front by the afternoon hours on Sunday, but
kept small POPS in the forecast in case the front moves slower
than expected. Otherwise, expect a beautiful weekend with highs
climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the 50s
and 60s.

An unsettled weather pattern will set up during the early to
middle part of next week as an upper trof will move eastward out
of the Southwestern United States while an upper ridge will try
to build over the Eastern United States. Models differ on far east
the upper trof will move and exactly where the ridge will build.
The GFS is the wettest model as it brings a series of shortwaves
into the region ahead of the upper trof that would eventually move
in late Wednesday. This solution would result in several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms during the Monday through Wednesday
time period. Meanwhile, the Canadian is probably the driest as the
model brings an initial shortwave into the region on Monday but
then begins to build the upper ridge over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys diminishing rain chances by Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
The ECMWF is somewhere in between. The model is slower moving the
upper trof out of the Southwest thus is drier on Monday. The model
also begins to build the upper ridge over the Upper Midwest on
Tuesday then quickly moves it east as the upper trof moves into
the Southern Plains. Hard to say what solution will work out. Kept
POPS in the 40-60 percent range through the period for now. Stay


/12z TAFs/

Mid-level clouds will continue to dissipate leaving mostly clear
conditions across the Mid-South today and tonight. Winds will be
from the north-northeast at up to 10 kts, becoming light after
00z. VFR through the period.






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