Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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155
FXUS64 KMEG 180232 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
932 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.UPDATE...
GOES East IR imagery showed considerable high clouds over the
southern two-thirds of MS, associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone 16 over the western gulf. These high clouds were streaming
north ahead of a southern branch closed low over TX, and
encountering stronger northern branch westerlies over the
Midsouth. These westerlies were limiting the northward extent of
the thicker cirrus, and will likely continue to do so overnight.
Can`t rule out patchy frost near the TN River, similar to last
night.

Forecast was recently reissued with little change other than
minor adjustments to hourly temperatures.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

UPDATE...
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Current satellite shows some high cirrus moving across Central
Mississippi in response to the developing low pressure system in
the western Gulf. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear with
temperatures in the 60`s. Tonight, lows will be in the 40`s. Dry
conditions will continue through the remainder of the work week
due to the influence of high pressure. Continued with a slight
chance of a shower in the far northwest and southeast counties for
Saturday. The rest of the area will remain dry. According to the
National Hurricane Center, the developing system in the western
Gulf is expected to lift northeast during the day Friday across
the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The path of the circulation is
expected to remain south and east of the Mid-South area.
Therefore, no impacts are expected.

A large trough will swing across the Central U.S. while a surface
cold front will pass through the Mid-South during the day on
Monday. Rain chances will increase from west to east, however,
there still remains some differences regarding the timing.
For now, continued with likely PoPs for the entire area on
Monday. Strong upper dynamics and shear will allow for the chance
of thunderstorms and potentially a few stronger storms.
Instability generally remains low (600- 700 J/kg). Although the
highest instability looks to be across portions of
northern/central Mississippi. A strong mid- level jet (~100kts)
will allow for bulk shear values nearing 60-70kts. Therefore, will
continue to advertise the potential for a few stronger storms on
Monday in the HWO.

By Tuesday, high pressure and upper ridging begins building back
into the area. This will dominate the weather pattern through much
of the week allowing for drier conditions.

17

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will
start to shift NE by 04-06z around 3kts. By tomorrow afternoon,
winds will be E/SE at 7kts.

SGW

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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