Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 180200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build in through early this weekend. An
unsettled pattern is expected late in the weekend as the remnants
of Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 move northeast across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 PM Thu...No changes with eve update.

Prev discussion... As of 705 PM Thu...Adjusted temps down a
degree or so, as light winds/clr skies lead to good radiational
cooling with temps near the lowest guidance vals (MET).

Prev discussion... As of 310 PM Thursday...With clear skies and
low dewpoints, another chilly night expected across eastern NC.
Winds are not likely to decouple, except perhaps over the far
northwestern counties where some upper 30s are possible. The
duration should be short and any frost would be limited to
protected areas. Lows will range from the upper 30s far inland
to mid/upper 40s coastal areas. Other than a few passing cirrus,
skies will continue to be mostly clear tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...Friday will almost a carbon copy of
today with mostly sunny skies, except for some scattered cirrus
and high temperatures in the mid/upper 60s. Winds will be NW at
5-10 knots inland and 10-15 knots coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Thur...High pressure will continue to build in
through the early weekend keeping dry and cool weather in
place. Two separate systems are progged to impact our area in
the long term - Potential Tropical Cylone 16 which will be
extratropical by the time it reaches Eastern NC, and a strong
cold front sliding across the region in the middle of the week.

Friday night and Saturday...Strong high pressure will remain in
place Friday night as the mid/upper trough axis slides
offshore, keeping the dry and cool airmass in place. Upper ridge
will build and crest over the area Saturday as surface high
pressure gradually shifts offshore. Lows Friday night will be
well below average with a few upper 30s possible in well
sheltered locations. With high pressure overhead and light to
calm winds, lows may be a little conservative. Highs Saturday
are expected to hold in the low 70s.

Saturday night into Sunday...The most complex part of the
forecast in the long term regards Potential Tropical Cyclone #16
in the Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to be picked up by an
upper trough quickly pushing across the Southern Plains. The
cyclone will quickly make landfall over the Gulf Coast and move
over Eastern NC over the weekend as an extratropical low. Model
guidance has trended faster, bringing the system across Eastern
NC by Saturday night into Sunday. This required rather large
changes to the forecast, which now has highest PoPs Saturday
night and slowly coming down on Sunday. Heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are expected with this system. The heaviest rainfall will
be along and east of the low center where an axis of 2.5"+
precipitable water is forecast. A severe threat could also arise
in the same region. The exact track of the low is still
uncertain which makes the QPF forecast less confident than
usual. With strong onshore winds coastal flooding could once
again become a concern.

Monday...The low shifts offshore with upper ridging building in
behind it. At the surface, weak high pressure will build in from
the north bringing mainly dry conditions for Monday. Forecast
1000-850 mb thicknesses support highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday...The next chance of rain comes on
Tuesday as a strong cold front slides east ahead of a deep upper
trough over the central U.S. There are still some minor
differences in timing (as usual the GFS is slightly faster with
a less amplified trough), but will keep high chance PoPs for
Tuesday. Behind the front strong CAA will help knock highs back
down to around 70 as low level thicknesses drop to around 1350
meters.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 705 PM Thursday...VFR conditions should continue through
this TAF cycle. Light winds through the period, may ocnl gust
above 10 kt on Fri.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 405 PM Thur...VFR conditions expected to be in control
through Saturday with high pressure overhead slowly shifting
offshore. An area of low pressure is forecast to lift over the
area Saturday night into Sunday, with rain chances increasing
late Saturday night into Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions are likely
during this period with LLWS concerns possible as well with
strong 850 mb winds forecast. VFR conditions are expected to
briefly return Monday before deteriorating again ahead of an
approaching cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/...
As of 10 PM Thu...Have cancelled SCA`s, as frequent wind gusts
should remain below 25 kt for remainder of the night.

Prev discussion...As of 705 PM Thu...Wind gusts will remain
below 25 kt for the srn waters, so have cancelled SCA here.

Prev discussion...As of 315 PM Thursday...As expected, seas
have subsided a bit this afternoon, but W/WNW winds continue to
gust to 25 knots off the central waters. Most of the short-range
models do indicate a bit of an uptick in the winds with a CAA
surge overnight, especially the WRF/ARW, while others back off
on the wind speeds overnight. Will continue the current SCA with
no changes at this time. Winds on Friday should be NW at 15-20
knots early in the day, diminishing to 5-15 knots in the
afternoon. Seas subside to 2-4 feet by tomorrow afternoon.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 405 PM Thur...Benign boating conditions early on the
period will give way to dangerous seas and winds by Saturday
night as an area of low pressure makes its away along the
Carolina coast. Seas are expected to build as high as 10 feet by
Sunday morning especially east and south of Hatteras, and
lingering above 6 feet until Tuesday north of Hatteras. SE winds
are expected to quickly rise above SCA criteria late Saturday
with gale conditions possible especially further offshore before
becoming northerly as the low passes to the north. A secondary
northerly surge is forecast on the backside of the low for
northern and central waters Sunday night. Benign conditions
return by Tuesday.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CTC/TL/MS
MARINE...CTC/TL/MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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