Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 041355
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
955 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore remains in control through this evening.
Then tonight, weak low pressure will develop along the
Southeast Coast, impacting the area into Friday. A cold front
will then cross the area late this weekend, followed by high
pressure for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 950 AM Thursday...Deep plume of Gulf moisture moving up
the coast into the eastern Carolinas this morning. Mostly
mid/upper level clouds mainly near the coast at mid-morning,
with clear skies inland. Temperatures already in the upper 70s
to lower 80s and should be able to reach forecast highs near 90
inland and low/mid 80s by later in the afternoon under partly
sunny skies. Rain chances remain slim through the day with
better chance later tonight as deeper moisture arrives.
Overall, little change to the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...A mid-level shortwave will slide up the
Southeast coast tonight, with surface high pressure sliding more
east of the area and low pressure develops inland, prompting a
more southerly low level flow component and increasing low level
moisture content. The chance for showers and a couple of
isolate thunderstorms enters the forecast early Friday morning
as the forcing from the shortwave begins to overspread the area
from the south. The severe threat is very low as instability
will be limited. Lows will once again be 5-10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Fri through Saturday night...Unsettled this period as upr
trough develops to the W late week. Model consensus suggests a
slower frontal passage in the Sat night to Sun morning time
frame and adjusted timing and coverage of pops to account, but
still capped everything at chance PoPs for now. Best chance for
rain appears to be Friday morning with aforementioned shortwave
forcing ongoing. Another round of showers and storms is possible
Saturday ahead of the approaching front. Highs mainly mid to
upr 80s inland (although a few 90s are possible) with low to mid
80s beaches.

Sunday through Tuesday...Cold front will cross Sun morning
followed by high pressure building in from the NW Sunday into
Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF still show some potential for
shower/tsra lingering srn tier Sunday so have small pops these
areas all day. Will need to keep an eye on the progress of TS
Cristobal in the coming days. Latest guidance showing system
heading toward the western Gulf late in the upcoming weekend,
with associated moisture pooling along the weakening cool front
to our south into early next week. Drier air will spread in
post-frontal, with drier, slightly cooler/less humid conditions
through early next week with highs in the 80s through Tue.

Could see a return of aftn/evening showers/tstms on Wed as deep-
layer moisture starts to increase in advance of the approaching
upper trough/remnant low of Cristobal. GFS has trended towards
the drier ECMWF solution and will keep explicit mention of pops
out of the forecast until Wed night. Highs lingering in the 80s
next week, with early morning lows in the 60s to low 70s across
coastal communities.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Thu...VFR conditions prevail through the period. SSW
winds become gusty once again today, though not quite as strong
as the past 2 days. Showers and MVFR ceilings could begin to
approach the terminals around sunrise Friday, though any
significant threat for sub-VFR conditions will hold off until
after 12Z.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thur...ISO- Widely sct shra/tsra expected Fri and
Sat ahead of approaching cold front with a few periods of sub
VFR conditions expected. Return to VFR conditions Sunday and
Monday with high pressure building in.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 955 AM Thursday...Still picking up a few gusts to around
25 knots at Diamond Buoy at mid-morning and will let the SCA
continue through 11 AM, and will evaluate a possible extension.
Otherwise, winds are SW 10-20 knots with seas 3-5 feet north and
2-4 feet southern waters. Not much changes expected through the
day today. Tonight, ridging will be overhead this evening with
SSW winds 10-20 kt, decreasing to 10-15 kt late as low pressure
approaches from the south. Seas remain around 2-4 ft overnight
in mainly windswell.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thur...SW winds diminish a bit more Fri and Sat to
15 to 20 kts with 3-5 ft seas cont...highest outer central and
srn wtrs. A few six footers are possible Saturday night for
outer waters shortly before a cold frontal passage but
confidence in this is below average. Winds shift behind the
cold front Sunday to N/NE nrn tier and W/NW srn tier 10 to 15 kt
with 2-3 ft seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CB/MS
MARINE...CTC/CB/MS



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