Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250509

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

The short term forecast period will have multiple opportunities
for very light snow, but nothing of notable impact.

We are seeing the first of these nuisance snowfalls this afternoon,
retrograding across western Wisconsin toward the I-35 corridor.
This band of snow is associated with weak shortwave energy on
the back side of the low pivoting toward the eastern Great Lakes.
Associated light snow will be possible generally along/east of
I-35 into this evening. Accumulations should mostly range from a
couple tenths to one inch.

The last vestiges of the aforementioned low may generate another
round of light snow across west central Wisconsin on Saturday
morning. Any accumulations would again be in the trace to 1" range.

On Saturday evening a faint northern stream shortwave follows on
the heels of the Great Lakes trough. Forcing with this feature
looks pretty weak at this point, so have only included a flurry
mention from west into south central MN.

Extended cloud cover and little in the way of pattern change will
keep temperatures from changing much over the next couple days.
Expect lows mostly in the 15-30 degree range, and highs Saturday
in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Little change in the pattern is expected through the end of the
week, with widespread cloud cover expected to persist through he
end of the week with little in the way to scour out the low-level
moisture and stratus. This cloud cover will keep daily
temperatures relatively consistent in the mid 20s to mid 30s,
around 15 degrees above normal for late-January. Melting snow
during the daytime will likely lead to at least patchy fog and
mist developing nearly every night. A few chances for light snow
are possible Tuesday- Wednesday and again on Friday, but no
impacts are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

MVFR/IFR vsbys will be concentrated across west central Wisconsin
over the next 6-12 hours with mainly MVFR cigs across
central/southern Minnesota. The best chance of -SN will occur in
west central Wisconsin, mainly around KEAU-KRCX with a period of
1-2SM -SN Saturday morning. Accumulations of around an inch will
be possible in this area. Otherwise, flurries are possible for the
rest of west central Wisconsin, and east central Minnesota. VFR
conditions will be possible toward the end of the TAF period as
winds shift to the southwest in western Minnesota.


Cigs will be predominately MVFR, or AOB 1.5 kft through 12z. IFR
cigs are possible during the pre dawn hours, but confidence
remains low on anything less than 800 ft. Flurries will be
possible through Saturday morning, but no accumulations are
expected. North-northwest wind of 10 kts will become west late
this afternoon, and southwest by Saturday evening. VFR conditions
are not expected until after 06z/26.


Sun...MVFR cigs possible. Wind SW bcmg NW under 5 kts.
Mon...MVFR, chc IFR cigs. Wind light and variable.
Tue...MVFR cigs. Slight Chc -SN. Wind light and variable.




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