Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 051845
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Dangerous heat is the primary short term concern. We have issued a
Heat Advisory for portions of south-central and southeast
Oklahoma. The Heat Advisory outlines the most likely areas to
reach or exceed criteria (105F for eastern portions of the
forecast area and 110F west of Highway 81), but some other
locations may at least approach the criteria if not briefly reach
it. The overarching message is that the combination of heat and
humidity across much of the area will necessitate precautionary
actions, but the most urgent portion of the area for heat related
illness concern is across the south-central and southeast portion
where we have issued the Advisory. Dew points in the low to mid
70s are unlikely to mix out substantially, and have been adjusted
upward slightly from the NBM model blend starting point.

Across the panhandles, veered low-level flow is expected to back
some with time in response to leeside surface pressure falls.
Richer moisture and thus greater buoyancy is expected to flow
north ahead of eastward drifting terrain-forced convection across
the High Plains. It`s possible this convection could sustain into
northwest Oklahoma, although it should be in a diminishing state
and overall fairly weak. We`ve added low probabilities in the
Buffalo/Woodward areas this evening. There is an outside chance of
isolated heat bursts/mesoscale wind events given a similar
thermodynamic pattern as last nights. Midlevel saturation atop
deep nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates, weak mid-level flow but
strong enough in the upper levels to drive eastward motions, and a
modest low-level jet provide the optimal kinematic/thermodynamic
setup. These are isolated events but we`ll need to watch trends in
convection that may approach our area this evening.

BRB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Similar to the previous forecasts, no big changes from previous
forecasts. Clear skies and warm temperatures will continue through
Saturday and Sunday. With the nearby track of Tropical Storm
Cristobal expected through Arkansas, increased cloud cover through
the area is likely, with chances of precipitation east of I-35
Monday into Tuesday. As Cristobal exits to the east, the upper level
ridge will build back into the region, and clear skies and warm
temperatures will continue through next week.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

VFR conditions will persist. Winds will generally be southerly or
light but could vary up to around 30 degrees (more southeasterly)
during the evening. There is a very low probability of
thunderstorms approaching northwest TAF sites late this evening,
and we`ll further evaluate that potential and amend if necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         99  73  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 100  73  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           99  72  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         96  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-032-040>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...12


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