Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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751
FXUS64 KOUN 221715
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will gradually shift from west/southwest to south late this
afternoon. Overnight speeds will be 12kts or lower, but are
expected in increase quickly by 14z with gusts well over 20kts.
Skies will remain clear this afternoon and evening with high
clouds increasing by morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
Clear skies are expected. Somewhat variable winds this morning
will become westerly/southwesterly today and southerly tonight as
an area of high pressure moves past the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The main focus areas for this forecast period are the cold front
expected Wednesday into Thursday morning and determining if
precipitation chances beginning Wednesday night will linger
through Saturday night. Again, the ECMWF/Canadian models indicate
that the upper level trough will become a closed low to our west,
whereas the GFS has a more progressive long wave trough. Now, with
the NAM guidance reaching Fri 12Z period, it appears that (at
least with this run), the NAM is in more agreement with the GFS.
Given the split in model resolutions, this has been a rather
challenging forecast for precip chances. If the upper level low
does close, then our chances for rain will persist through
Saturday. Opted to decrease POPs through Thursday night and keep
slight chances through Saturday.

Confidence is much higher that a cold front will enter
northwestern OK on Wednesday afternoon. Latest thinking is the
frontal boundary will move slowly to the southeast and pass
central OK on Wednesday night. Daytime high temperatures will only
reach the low 50s across northern/central OK and the low 60s
across southern portions of the FA on Thursday. With northerly
winds at 10-20 kts, Thursday morning`s wind chills could drop to
the low 30s in NW OK, and mid/upper 30s across central OK.
Thursday appears wet with rain likely, especially east of I-35.

Thompson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  49  76  44 /   0   0   0  40
Hobart OK         73  47  79  45 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  50  81  48 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           71  44  73  38 /   0   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     68  47  73  42 /   0   0   0  40
Durant OK         74  49  77  54 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/25/30



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