Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
308 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Winds: Strong/gusty s-sw winds are occurring over the western
cwfa from the Osage Plains/southeast Kansas into western sections
of the Missouri Ozarks Highlands. Gusts of 40+ mph are occurring
at times at KJLN and KSGF. Winds are likely at their peak right
now with max daytime mixing. They will diminish fairly quickly
this evening.

Heavy Rain Potential: A sfc front now extending from IA into
eastern KS will move into the region this evening and then stall
for a time to the south on Thursday as a sfc wave develops over
east TX. Rain is expected to develop over eastern OK and move into
sw MO late tonight into Thursday as a disturbance moves through
the southwest flow aloft. Lift will be enhance in the right
entrance region of a jet streak over the region late tonight into
early Thu with heaviest rain expected 09z-15z (4am-10am) time
frame when lift is maximized and and deep moisture is present.
Rainfall rates do not rise to flash flood guidance, but will have
to consider slow rise/flood watches and warnings for our far
southwest counties with some areas seeing around 2 inches of rain
possible by Thursday afternoon. Lighter rain is expected to
continue into the afternoon before the better lifts shifts to the
south and and southeast Thursday night.

In coordination with neighboring WFO TSA, will not issue a flood
watch but will monitor. Wouldn`t be shocked by flood a warning or
two Thursday morning.

Sharply Colder: Temperatures will turn sharply colder with the
frontal passage with readings in the 40s by daybreak and highs in
the 40s and 50s expected Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Main concern this period is the potential for colder than normal
weather. HOWEVER, global models are vary greatly next week on how
far west a large upper level trough will dig and set up over the
CONUS by early-mid week. The ECMWF and Canadian/GDPS global models
dig an upper trough much farther to the west versus the GFS. The
GFS Model blend reflects a compromise, but confidence in the
extended forecast cycle next week is well below normal.

Near normal temperatures are expected Sunday...then...we will see
colder than normal temperatures my midweek (sooner with the GFS)
with likely the coldest temperatures toward the end of the period.
Am fairly confident we will see some precip at some point between
Monday and Wednesday but timing is difficult given the large
model differences in the arrival of colder air. It doesn`t look
like anything heavy or long lived as far as rain (or brief snow?)
amounts are concerned during this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Gusty s-sw winds will occur early with
30-40kt gusts possible at KJLN and KSGF. A strong cold front will
move through the region with a sfc wave to the south. Winds will
back fairly quickly to the northeast with rain and lower ceilings
spreading into the region from the southwest. Low end MVFR and IFR
ceilings will be possible by late in the taf period along with
light to moderate rain.




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