Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
240 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

A wet pattern will continue into the start of the week and for
Memorial Day. A deep upper level trough can be found across the
Plains region and will be responsible for daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms throughout the week as the upper level low
becomes cutoff. Expect daily highs in the middle to upper 70s with
overnight lows in the 60s.

By later this morning, a few scattered showers and rumbles of
thunder will be found across portions of the Missouri Ozarks as
weak shortwave energy transitions through the region. The main
threat with convection this morning will be lightning and heavy
downpours. By the early afternoon, instability will increase
across the region. While there will be the presence of rich
moisture once again, there will be a lack of adequate shear
throughout the daytime. As a result scattered clusters of showers
and thunderstorms will develop across the region. By the late
afternoon/evening hours, a strengthening mid- level field will
allow for the potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms
across the Missouri Ozarks. A few low topped supercells cannot be
completely ruled out as models suggest a modest uptick in deep
layer shear by the evening hours. However, expect most of the
convection to remain less organized posing an isolated severe
threat as denoted by the SPCs Day 1 Convective Outlook. The main
hazard associated with these thunderstorms would be an isolated
damaging wind gust up to 60 mph.

Of higher concern, will be the potential flooding threat across
the region later today and into Tuesday morning. Most CAMs
continue to suggest a corridor of localized heavy rainfall across
portions of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. WPC has
outlined this region in slight risk for excessive rainfall as a
result. Several factors point towards an increasing threat for
flash flooding across this region including high soil moisture
content, slow moving thunderstorms, training thunderstorms, and
efficient rainfall rates. As a result a Flash Flood Watch will
be posted for portions of this region from this afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
into the late week as the upper level low becomes cut off. While
this pattern will not support much in the way for favorable severe
environments, it will support the potential for potentially heavy.
The current forecast is for a widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally heavier amounts possible. This favorable environment
will be supported by relatively high PWATs allowing for efficient
rainfall. The threat for continued flooding along streams, rivers,
and lakes will continued to be evaluated closely.

By the weekend, ensemble guidance does suggest the slow
dissipation of the upper level trough to our east. This will
allow for upper level ridging over the region, bringing warmer
temperatures and drier weather into the beginning of June.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Timing, coverage, and intensity of convection continues to be the
primary concern with this TAF period. Additional rounds of
scattered showers and storms are possible starting late tonight
into Monday morning and continuing at times into Monday night.




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