Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 210910
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 AM MST Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions to prevail into next weekend. Expect
seasonable daytime temperatures except Tuesday and Wednesday when
afternoon highs will be several degrees above normal. The potential
exists Friday night into early Saturday morning for freezing
temperatures in the coldest eastern valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The sky was clear across southern Arizona this
morning under dry NW flow aloft. At the surface, dewpoint values
were down 5 to 15 degrees across the area which will allow
overnight lows to be at or a few degrees cooler than Sunday
morning. This will bring the likelihood of a few more spots in our
colder eastern valleys of Cochise county being right around
freezing. Highs today at or a few degrees warmer than this weekend
with warmer temperatures on tap Tuesday and Wednesday as eastern
flank of strong high pressure centered off southern California
coast builds over the area.

Flow aloft becomes northerly late in the work week which will
allow a colder air mass to move over the area. The coldest eastern
valleys could see the first widespread freeze event of the season
late Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time, based on
experience, we are forecasting colder than model guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z.
SKC conditions through the period. SFC wind light and variable
this morning, becoming NWLY 10-15 kts this afternoon, then
becoming light and variable again tonight into Tuesday morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected into next weekend. Near
normal high temperatures will continue today then above normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will trend closer
to seasonal normals Thursday into next weekend. A dry regime will
result in daytime humidity minimums dropping into the high single
digits to the lower teens many locations into this week. 20-foot
winds will mostly be terrain driven less than 15 mph with the
exception of easterly winds Tuesday, and Thursday into Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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