Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 041643
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
943 AM MST Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will continue to maintain
hotter than normal temperatures over the region. The high will weaken
slightly through mid-week allowing for slight cooling and a continued
chance of afternoon thunderstorms. As the weekend approaches, dry
southwest flow and then the high building again will result in less
thunderstorm activity and hotter temperatures Friday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny across most of the area this morning.
The exception is across central/western Pima county where its
partly to locally mostly cloudy. 12z deterministic models and
CAMs did not initialize cloud cover well by having too much
clouds where its clear and not enough where its partly to mostly
cloudy. Not a good start in the model world. PW values are down
from 24 hours ranging from 0.70" across the Whites to 1.10" along
the Intl border. 12z upper air plot showed upper high over w-cntrl
NM and a weak upper level trof over cntrl/srn CA. For today, 300
mb streamline analysis shows that weak upper level divergence will
be developing over the eastern half of the forecast area later
this afternoon into this evening. Storm activity will be later to
start with emphasis being across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties.
Tucson will need a strong outflow to get storms going and hoping
that the metro area isn`t anviled over. Forecast for today looks
in good shape with highs close to what occurred yesterday. Will
delve into the remainder of the forecast in the afternoon
discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
Thru 04/20Z, SCT clouds AOA 20k ft MSL from KTUS westward, with
SCT- BKN clouds at 10k-15k ft MSL south and east of KTUS. Aft
03/15Z, FEW- SCT clouds (locally BKN) at 10k-15k ft MSL. Isolated
to scattered TSRA/SHRA will redevelop aft 04/18Z mainly from KTUS
south and eastward. Tstm gusts around 45 kts and MVFR conditions
may occur at times. Otherwise, SFC wind variable less than 10 kts
this morning. Westerly winds increasing again this afternoon to
10-15 kts along before diminishing to 10 kts or less this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures into this weekend.
Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
favoring locations from Tucson south and eastward through Wednesday,
then mainly areas east of Tucson Thursday through the weekend as
drier air moves in from the west. 20-foot winds will generally
follow typical diurnal patterns at less than 15 mph. However,
thunderstorms may produce wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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