903
FNUS73 KDLH 142210
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Third River North RX...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
510 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 15.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Cloudy skies and southeasterly winds around 7 mph to start the day
as a low pressure system encroaches from the west. RHs will be
driest in the morning and slowly increase through the day.
Ventilation at ignition time will initially be poor but will
increase to fair later in the morning.

Rain chances will begin to increase in the early afternoon with
some of the high res guidance suggesting rain as early as 2pm.
However, the drier low levels will likely lead to more virga
initially. The better chances for rain reaching the surface will
be in the evening hours.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL increasing to 3400 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (11200-27100 knot-ft) increasing
                    to good (36900 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  30  40  40  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  53  56  60  61  63  65  65  65
RH..............54  48  49  47  49  48  46  46  48
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.13  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.4 3.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  13  14  13  13  12  10  13  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100011  15  18  20  24  27  25  37  38

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
                    early in the evening, then rain showers in the
                    evening. Rain showers likely overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (19800-35500 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor to fair (10500-22400 knot-ft) early in
                    the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.29 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60     80     80     80     70     70
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............64     59     54     50     48     47
RH..............52     62     69     74     77     83
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 8   SE 8   SE 8   SE 8   E 7
20 ft wind gust.13     13     14     13     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   1000   1200   1100   1000   1000
Transport wind..SE 15  SE 13  SE 17  SE 20  E 16   E 14
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100036     11     18     19     14     13

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely early in the morning, then chance of
                    rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 8 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL increasing to 4100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 10 mph shifting to the north late in
                    the morning, then shifting to the northwest 10
                    to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (7400-22600 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (43200-53300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70     40     40     40     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............46     49     54     58     62     65
RH..............86     83     74     67     58     52
20 ft wind......SE 6   E 6    SE 7   SW 8   W 8    SW 9
20 ft wind gust.11     11     12     13     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1100   1500   2600   3500   4100
Transport wind..E 10   E 9    NW 10  NW 10  NW 13  NW 15
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10009      9      14     23     36     53

$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Mike Klick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414195.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.klick@usda.gov