Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FNUS75 KPUB 211250
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Pikes Peak Piles-Chipita Creeks...USFS
National Weather Service PUEBLO CO
550 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

West winds of 10 to 15 mph reported by the Rampart Range RAWS
station this morning are expected these to decrease over the next
few hours. Otherwise, dry conditions with light winds are expected
today. With relatively low mixing heights and transport winds
around 5 to 8 mph, confidence is high that the smoke dispersion will
remain poor throughout the day. Clouds increase late tonight with
isolated snow showers developing late Saturday afternoon. Smoke
dispersion is expected to remain poor through the day Saturday as
well due to light winds and low mixing heights.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....40-45F.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds about 5 to 10 mph until 1300, then
                    southwest around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph until 1400, then southeast
                    around 8 mph until 1500, then southwest around
                    5 mph until 1600, then southeast.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   3   3   4   5   6   6   5   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............27  31  34  40  42  42  42  42  39  35
RH..............22  24  27  25  25  28  29  30  35  41
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  7   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  W   W   SE  SW  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   7   7   6   7   6   6   7
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   2
SDspl kt-ft/10004   4   6   8   13  10  13  7   5   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear until 0400, then mostly cloudy.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....25-30F.
Max humidity........50-55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West wind around 5 mph until 2300, then
                    increasing to 10-14 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   6   6   8   9   10  17  23  30  41  53  65
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............31  29  29  27  27  29  29  29  29  29  30  32
RH..............49  51  51  55  53  48  48  48  48  48  46  43
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   11  12  14
20 FT wind gust.7   10  11  11  12  14  14  17  18  18  18  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   9   10  13  13  15  14  16  17  17  18  17
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10004   5   5   5   5   7   7   9   10  10  10  9

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy, with isolated snow showers after
                    1700.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....43-48F.
Min humidity........27-32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 10 to 15 mph until 0900, then
                    southeast around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  68  70  70  70  70  70  70  71  74  78  81
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            SW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............32  32  33  37  42  43  44  45  45  43  40  37
RH..............41  41  41  40  33  33  33  32  33  36  42  48
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..13  11  9   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.18  18  14  14  11  10  10  10  10  10  10  8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.18  16  13  8   7   6   6   7   7   6   6   5
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/10009   8   6   4   8   11  12  13  15  10  6   2

$$
Forecaster...CARLBERG
Requested by...Michael Hottel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2002478.2/PUB
.DELDT 02/21/20
.FormatterVersion 1.0.24


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