Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 140418
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1018 PM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The Winter Weather Advisory over the central mountains was
allowed to expire as snowfall has decreased in intensity.
Increased short term PoPs in northern El Paso County as snow band
remains in place. High res guidance indicates this feature will
weaken in the next couple of hours as the upper low drifts east.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...Strong winds on the plains to continue overnight and into
Saturday afternoon...

Currently...Classic mid-latitude low pressure system over the
central plains this afternoon, with howling north winds on
the back side of the KS surface low across all of southern CO.
Heavier precip in the main wrap-around band has remained
over nern CO, with a few -shra/-shsn occasionally rotating southward
along the KS border and near the Palmer Divide. Have also seen some
showers along the srn I-25 corridor and sern mts, as upslope
component to the low level flow forces some light precip on the
north side of the Raton Mesa. Mainly instability snow showers over
the mountains this afternoon, especially higher peaks of the
Sawatch and Mosquito ranges.

Tonight...Upper level low moves slowly eastward through KS, leading
to a vertically stacked system over nern KS by Sat morning. Surface
pressure gradient remains tight across all of eastern CO through the
night, while mid level flow increases slightly to nearly 70 kts in a
few locations east of I-25 after midnight. Loss of weak thermal
mixing may lead to a slight relaxation in wind speeds after sunset,
though won`t take much momentum transfer to produce 50 kt gusts at
times, so will keep current high wind highlight in place. Snow will
taper off to flurries over the mountains, though with risk of
blowing snow at and above pass level, will keep winter wx advisory
going into the evening. Lower elevations and eastern plains will see
some brief flurries/sprinkles, with best chance for a quick dusting
of snowfall along the Palmer Divide. Winds will keep min temps from
plummeting too far over the region, though all locations will end up
well below freezing by Sat morning.

Saturday...Strong north winds will continue along and east of the
mountains in the morning, before gradient gradually relaxes from
west to east in the afternoon as surface low pulls away into the
Midwest. High wind warning areal extent and timing still looks good
and didn`t make any changes. Some concern about near critical fire
weather conditions over the San Luis Valley in the afternoon as
drier air mass spreads across the area, though alignment of
strongest winds and lowest RH looks too short to warrant a
highlight at this point. With more sun and modest recovery in
low/mid level temps, most of the area should see maxes a few degf
warmer than Friday`s numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...Increasing Fire Danger Monday and Tuesday...

Saturday night-Sunday...Moderating northwest flow aloft Saturday
night becomes more westerly through the day Sunday as upper level
ridging builds across the State. Winds decouple across the plains
late Saturday afternoon, and with mainly clear skies, there should
be good radiational cooling leading to chilly overnight lows mainly in
the 20s across the lower elevations, with teens and 20s across the
higher terrain. Temperatures Sunday expected to warm back to near
seasonal levels in the 60s across the lower elevations and into the
40s and 50s across the higher terrain. Models indicating potential
for convection across the higher terrain Sunday afternoon and can`t
rule out some CU buildups in the afternoon, however, kept only
silent pops across the area at this time, with soundings indicating
a dry lower atmosphere.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Upper level ridging across the area Sunday
gives way to increasing southwest flow aloft across the area Monday,
as a Pacific Northwest upper trough digs into the Great Basin.
Increasing flow aloft and induced lee troughing across the Plains
will lead to a warm and breezy day across South Central and
Southeast Colorado, with critical fire weather conditions looking
likely with gusty southwest winds 25 to 35 mph Monday afternoon and
evening. Monday also looks to be the warmest day of the week, with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the Plains, and in the 50s
and 60s across the higher terrain.

Great Basin system moves across the Rockies through the day Tuesday,
leading to increasing chances of the rain and high elevation snow
across the ContDvd late Monday night and Tuesday, with only light
accumulations expected due to fast movement of the system. Strong
west to southwest winds across the Plains early Tuesday ahead of the
systems bora front looks to bring another critical fire weather day
across much of the Southeast Plains, with winds shifting to the
northwest and remaining strong and gusty behind the passing front
Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday-Friday...Moderating northwest flow aloft across the region
Wednesday will keep dry weather in place with temperatures at to
slightly below seasonal levels. Increasing southwest flow aloft is
expected across Wednesday night and Thursday, ahead of a strong
upper level system digging into the Great Basin. This system looks
to lift out across the Rockies through the end of the work week,
though latest models showing differences in timing and location of
this ejecting storm system. The latest EC run is faster and further
south, which could bring better chances of beneficial moisture to
Southern Colorado, where as the GFS is slower and a tad further
north with the ejecting system, though its current solution would
suggest the season`s first bout of severe weather across the far
southeast Plains on Friday. Time will tell, however, unsettled
weather looks to be in the picture across South Central and
Southeast Colorado for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

At KALS...VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs, with most
shsn activity remaining over the higher terrain surrounding the
valley. North winds gusting 30-40 kts will continue into the
evening, then diminish after 02z-04z. North winds will re-strengthen
again on Sat, with a few gusts to to 20-25 kts in the afternoon.

At KCOS...Generally VFR the next 24 hrs, though a low risk of a
brief MVFR -shsn will continue until around 02z. Strong north winds
will gust over 40 kts until 02z-04z, then back off slightly into the
30-35 kt range overnight. Winds then pick up again 14z-16z Sat, with
gusts over 40 kts possible.

At KPUB...VFR the next 24 hrs, with most shower activity staying
north and southwest of the terminal closer to higher terrain. Strong
north winds will gust over 40 kts until 02z-04z, then back off
slightly into the 30-35 kt range overnight. Winds then pick up again
14z-16z Sat, with gusts over 40 kts possible. Winds should then
diminish late in the afternoon.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Saturday for COZ095>099.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Saturday for COZ084>086-089-093-
094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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