Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
746 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Issued at 722 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Stratus and fog have crept up the Arkansas Valley and the south
side of the Palmer Divide this morning, with fairly low visbility
at KCOS and K1V6, where edge of the cloud layer intersects with
rising terrain. Cloud layer is very shallow, with plume from the
500 foot Commanche Power Plant smoke stack in Pueblo visibile in
satellite imagery just above the lower clouds. Still expect clouds
and fog to mix out this morning, though with latest HRRR showing
rather weak surface winds until 17z-18z, at least some patchy
stratus may linger an hour or two longer than earlier expected.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Upper level low pressure drifting eastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley early this morning while upper ridge begins to
build over the Rockies. Still some lingering stratus this morning
over the plains as low level flow has taken on a weak easterly
component, though expect most clouds to dissipate by midday as wind
become more nly along and east of the mountains. Just enough
residual moisture in place over the mountains for some isolated
convection this afternoon, and with a few hundred j/kg of CAPE over
the area, a brief thunderstorm isn`t out of the question across the
higher peaks. Best bet for a shower/tstorm will be along the
Continental Divide in the late afternoon/early evening, with perhaps
some weakening showers/sprinkles spreading across interior valleys
late in the day. Given lack of much forcing, suspect rather large
QPF bullseye in last few NAM runs is overdone, and latest HRRR looks
more realistic in both coverage/intensity of precip. Max temps area-
wide should begin to climb upward as mid level heights/temps rise
under building ridge, and a few readings may approach 70f over the
lower Ark Valley by late day. Overnight, any lingering mountain
convection should end by midnight, with clearing skies and
seasonably cool min temps most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Monday-Tuesday night...Models continue to trend slower, stronger and
a tad further south with trailing energy of an upper trough digging
across the Northern Tier Monday morning, with said system continuing
to translate south and east across the Rockies and into the Upper
Midwest through the Southern High Plains Monday night and Tuesday.
With increasing moisture and some uvv ahead of the system, should
see isolated to scatters showers, along with a few possible
thunderstorms, develop over and near the higher terrain Monday
afternoon. Warming aloft ahead of the system will allow for
temperatures on Monday to warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s across
the lower elevations, with mainly 40s and 50s across the higher
terrain. The system sends a cold front across Eastern Colorado
Monday night through early Tuesday morning, with showers possible
along and behind the passing front across the Southeast Plains
Monday night, with cool upslope developing across the Plains through
the day, leading to temperatures some 10 to 20 degrees cooler than
Monday, most notable across The Plains. Latest models remain
consistent with trailing energy across the Rockies will lead to
another another round of showers over and near the higher terrain
Tuesday afternoon, with showers once again spreading out across The
Plains Tuesday evening. Clearing skies from west to east behind the
trailing energy will lead to overnight night lows at and below
seasonal levels, mainly in the 20s to low 30s areawide.

Wednesday-Thursday...Drier and warmer weather across the area
Wednesday with short wave ridging building across the region.
Increasing northwest flow progged across the region Wednesday night
and Thursday, as another upper trough digs across Upper Midwest and
into the High Plains. Models differ on strength and location of this
system, with the EC stronger and further south as compared to the
GFS, with the EC solution leading to better chances of showers
across the area as well as cooler temperatures. For now, stayed with
blended model pops, which has isolated to scattered pops across the
area Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday-Saturday...Model differences continue into next weekend, with
models differing on how fast Eastern Pacific energy digging across
the West Coast and into the Great Basin. The GFS has some of this
energy undercutting a high amplitude ridge building across the
Rockies Friday and Saturday, with enough moisture to support
afternoon and evening showers across the area Friday and Saturday,
where as the EC is slower and keeps most of the area dry into the
early part of the weekend. Blended model solution leaned closer the
the GFS, though I did tapper back pops a tad for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

IFR stratus has pushed up the Arkansas Valley into KPUB as of 10z,
while patchier MVFR cigs have begun to clear across El Paso County
around KCOS. General model/satellite trend has been toward less in
the way of fog at both sites this morning, as low level winds take
on a more W-SW component after 12z, which should keep lower vis east
of the terminals. Will still have at least a couple hrs of IFR cigs
at KPUB until 13-14z, while lower cigs look less likely at KCOS as
wly surface winds may tend to keep any IFR conditions patchy/brief.
Once clouds clear 14z-15z, expect VFR conditions for the remainder
of the day and into tonight. At KALS, VFR conditions today and
tonight, with only a very low risk of patchy ground fog near the
terminal early this morning. Over the mountains, isolated tsra
possible this afternoon along the Continental Divide, with areas of
IFR cigs/vis briefly possible. Over the plains, IFR cigs/vis in
stratus and fog will gradually clear by midday, then VFR this
afternoon and tonight.




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