Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251743
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Currently.

System which brought beneficial precip to the region was exiting to
the southeast of the State at 3 am. Some low/mid lvl clouds were
still noted along the mtns/plains interface and along the I-25
corridor region while a band of higher clouds was noted along the
CO/NM border. Water vapor bands clearly show drier air moving into
the region. Radar still indicated a few light showers over the far
southeast plains.

Temps across the region were generally in the L30s across all of the
plains and larger valleys while 10s and 20s were noted over the
mtns.

Today...

Any precip should move out of the fcst area by sunrise, with clouds
exiting the state shortly thereafter. Overall anticipate a sunny day
across the region with max temps reaching the U50s to M60s across
the plains, 60s valleys and 30s and 40s mtns. Sfc winds will be
light.

Tonight...

Another disturbance will be moving towards the region, and another
surge of cooler weather will move into the region  during the early
morning hours. Some increase in high cloudiness is likely later
tonight but no precip is anticipated at this time over the region.
Min temps should reach into the 30s across the plains and valleys
and 10s and 20s mtns. Winds will be picking up over the higher
terrain by late evening. the surface cool front should move across
the Palmer Divide during the 3-4 am time period with the front
reaching the US-50 corridor prior to sunrise. Gusty NW winds will
occur behind the front. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Thursday-Thursday night...Moderate northwest flow aloft across the
region Thursday morning weakens Thursday afternoon and becomes more
westerly into Thursday night, as an upper trough translating across
Rockies continues into the Upper Midwest and High Plains, and upper
level ridging builds across the Great Basin. Models continue to
differ on amplitude of passing Rockies system, however they tend to
agree that precipitation associated with the passing upper trough
and associated front will be confined to areas over and near the
higher terrain. With that said, have kept isolated to scattered
pops in the Pikes Peak region Thursday morning, with pops
spreading south and west across the Southeast Mountains and Raton
Mesa later Thursday morning and into the afternoon. This system
remains warmer than Tuesday`s system with any snow accumulation
confined to the higher terrain and remaining generally light. This
system`a associated cold front moves across the Eastern Plains
Thursday morning, with gusty northerly of 20 to 40 mph expected
through out the day behind the front. With that said, highs across
The Plains in the 50s to lower 60s will likely be reached through
the morning, with steady and falling temperatures through the
afternoon.

Friday-Saturday...High amplitude upper level ridging continues to
build across the region as a deep upper low moves onshore across the
West Coast on Friday. Models continue to differ on how fast this
system lifts out across the Great Basin along with how fast moisture
embedded within the increasing southwest flow aloft moves into the
Rockies. The operational GFS remains a faster and wetter
solution, however, the latest GFS H5 ensemble mean is slower and
closer the current ECMWF, and have trended the forecast towards
this solution. With that said, should see warmer and mainly dry
weather across the area on Friday, with isolated afternoon and
early evening showers and thunderstorms possible along and west of
the ContDvd. Better coverage of afternoon and evening showers and
storms can be expected over and near the higher terrain on
Saturday, with increasing moisture and uvv as upper low lifts out
into the Great Basin. Could see a few showers and storms spreading
across the Southeast Plains Saturday evening as well. Warming
aloft will lead to temperatures at and above seasonal levels, with
highs Friday in the 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations,
warming to the 70s to lower 80s on Saturday, with mainly 50s and
60s across the higher terrain.

Sunday-Tuesday...Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft progged
across the region as the Great Basin system continues to lift out
across the Northern Rockies and secondary energy across the Pacific
Northwest digs into the Great Basin. Pattern supports isolated to
scattered showers across the ContDvd, with warm and breezy weather
across Southeast Colorado, leading to the potential for critical
fire weather conditions across portions of the Plains Sunday and all
of the Plains on Monday. Lee troughing across the Plains Sunday
could lead to a few afternoon and evening showers and storms along
and east of a developing dry line. Temperatures at and above
seasonal levels look to prevail through out this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all KALS, KCOS, and KPUB for the
next 24 hours with limited cloud cover across the region. Winds
will generally be light and from the southeast at KCOS and KPUB,
and south/southwest at KALS this afternoon through the early
evening. Just before or around midnight, winds at all three sites
will become light and variable, before turning north early
Thursday morning. Winds will increase out of the north to 15-20
knots gusting to around 30 knots at KCOS and KPUB during the
morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LINE



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