Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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506 FXUS62 KRAH 081820 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will interact with an unseasonably moist airmass over North Carolina through early Friday, bringing unsettled weather. A cold front will move across the region on Friday, ushering in drier and less humid air for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM Wednesday... Few changes this morning. Areas of mid clouds persist over the area this morning, mostly convective debris from upstream convection along with patchy altostratus and altocu castellanus. Isolated showers are not growing upscale despite elevated moderate CAPE (noted well on the 12z GSO sounding), given lingering SB CINH and a relative lull in larger scale forcing for ascent as a low-mid level perturbation that passed through the region earlier this morning is pushing to our ENE, leaving behind a brief period of weak low-mid level shortwave ridging. The latest convection-allowing models still vary in details and timing, but most latch onto the organized convection spanning the KY/TN border region currently and take it, or some portion thereof or outflow from it, E of the NC mountains by 17z and track organized convection through our area 20z-02z, focusing on areas from RDU to the W and S with lesser or lighter coverage across our far NE, which will be followed by other rounds of convection stretching back across our SW through the overnight hours, amidst lingering CAPE and increasing low and mid level winds to 25-35 kt/40-45 kt respectively. The earlier forecast is close to this scenario, with just minor tweaks needed. Strong buoyancy is expected, with SBCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg this afternoon, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s, an eff deep layer shear of 30- 35 kts, and 925-700 mb lapse rates reaching their peak mid afternoon through mid evening. A period of a decently curved hodograph with this buoyancy profile suggests that all hazards are possible, particularly large hail and straight line wind damage, with a lower but non-zero tornado threat as well with 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH on the RAP. Still expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, over 10 deg above normal and well into the 90th percentile with high humidity, leading to an elevated risk of heat-related illness. -GIH Earlier discussion from 330 AM: * Slight/Level 2 threat for multiple rounds of severe storms from with the primary threat during the late afternoon/evening, followed by a secondary threat late tonight/early Thursday. * Summerlike heat and humidity is expected with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values in the lower to mid 90s in many locations. Upper ridge centered over the SE US this morning will shift offshore early in the day, leaving the Carolinas under the influence of perturbed quasi-zonal flow aloft until the arrival of the strong Northern Plains/Upper Midwest trough into the region on Friday. At the surface, a lee sfc trough will sharpen over western NC. A complex and multi-episode severe threat exists today through Thursday. Model guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread and high run-to-run variability wrt convective evolution (timing/location). A majority of this uncertainty can be attributed to the fact that the forcing mechanisms are upstream convective artifacts that currently developing or have yet to develop. As such confidence is lower than normal. However, there is high confidence that the near-storm environment over central NC will be very conducive for severe storms that starts first with the summer-like heat and humidity. Under the influence of SWLY flow, low-level thicknesses will be more comparable to late June than early May. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s across the north to lower 90s over the remainder of the forecast area. When coupled with the humid BL dewpoints of 65-70, heat indices over the central and eastern portions will be in the mid 90s. The resultant low-level lapse rates will foster moderate to strong destabilization with MLCAPE of 2500- 3500 forecast across the area. Convective initiation could be triggered by storms or associated outflow moving off the higher terrain and/or just develop along the lee side trough or differential heating boundary. This first round of convection should propagate east through the afternoon and early evening. Effective shear of 30-40kts and another high DCAPE environment of 1000-1500 Joules will support a threat for supercells with damaging winds and large hail, given the robust/fat CAPE and initially straight hodographs. An evening/early night lull in convection/rain chances is possible before a potential upstream convective complex crosses the mtns and moves into the area during the overnight and morning hours. While a nocturnal curtailment of instability will occur, moderate instability will likely survive with hodographs becoming strongly cyclonically curved, resulting in added threat for an isolated tornado as well. Lows in the 65-70. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Wednesday... * Slight/Level 2 Threat continues into Thursday... Lower than normal forecast confidence carries over into Thursday with looming uncertainty as to whether or not nocturnal organized convection will be ongoing across central NC during the first half of the diurnal cycle and the pending negative consequences of associated widespread clouds, rain, and convective overturning that would greatly limit destablization. It`s quite possible that the severe threat may peak during the morning and early afternoon, decreasing thereafter as the convection moves south and east of the area. Alternatively, if the morning/early day convection is less organized or is not realized across the area, additional upstream convectively enhanced disturbances/MCV, with an attendant effective front moving through the area, could potentially spur another round of strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak to moderate instability with deep-layer shear progged to increase will pose a continuing threat for damaging winds and hail. Severe threat should wind down with the passage of the effective front late Thursday evening/night. Not as warm given the clouds and rain chances. Highs ranging from lower/mid 80s north to near 90 SE. Lows near 60 north to upper 60s SE. -CBL A pair of shortwaves will move across central NC on Friday, one around midday and the other in the late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the cold front will begin to cross the area as a wave of low pressure rides along it, but exactly how far it gets is a bit uncertain. Regardless, guidance is in good agreement that moisture and instability will be much less impressive than today and Thursday, and the highest will be focused across the south and east. CAPE looks to be more in the 500-1000 J/kg range, so severe weather looks like less of a threat, but isolated storms still can`t be ruled out. After the deterministic 12z ECMWF was largely dry, the 00z run came in wetter and more in line with most of its ensembles as well as the GFS/GEFS and NAM. So keep likely POPs across the SE and chance elsewhere. Forecast highs range from mid-70s far north to lower-80s far south. Any precipitation will come to an end Friday night as the cold front sweeps off the coast and lows turn slightly below normal (upper-40s to mid-50s). -Danco
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Wednesday... Sat begins with broad troughing over generally the Northeast CONUS characterized mainly by two embedded shortwaves, one of which is shifting out over the western Atlantic while the second dives ESE out of Upper Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley by Sat afternoon. The former will have shifted the axis of deep, rich moisture (PWAT ~1.6 inches) well offshore and usher in PWAT values around 0.5 of an inch (near the 10th percentile for GSO, RNK, MHX RAOB) driven by briefly strong subsidence and downsloping flow WNW flow. The latter shortwave will pivot across Mid-Atlantic Sat afternoon and evening, but central NC may only see glancing synoptic forcing from this feature as the better DPVA remains north of the VA border. Point soundings suggest shallow afternoon cumulus development to the base of the subsidence inversion with better 700mb moisture (deepening the moisture layer) moving into the area late Sat afternoon into the evening hours. This may be enough to squeeze out some sprinkles over central NC with better chance for very light rain closer to the NC/VA border. Surface high pressure and a secondary area of subsidence on the backside of the departing trough will lead to dry conditions Sun through Mon with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. The next system will move towards the area Mon night into Wed as a closed low near the Four Corners Region Sun morning slowly drifts eastward. Closed lows situated in between a split-flow regime often have timing issues, and this one is no exception. Latest forecast gradually brings in precipitation early Tues morning with chances lingering into Wed with greatest chances diurnally favored during the afternoon/evening. It would not be surprising to see the quicker GEFS trend towards the slower EPS and precipitation onset becoming 12 hours later than is currently forecast. Temperatures will trend back towards above normal mid-level height rises and the 850mb anti- cyclone shifts offshore.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 140 PM Wednesday... While VFR conditions will be dominant through this evening across the area, important details hinge on the path and timing of showers and strong thunderstorms expected to cross the area, affecting mostly W and S areas, passing near or over INT/GSO between 20z and 00z, RDU between 22z and 02z, and RWI/FAY 23z to 03z. Sub-VFR conditions with high/erratic winds, strong gusts, heavy rain, in- cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning, and hail will be possible in and near these storms. These storms are likely to be a solid line and not easily circumnavigable. Behind this line, a few hours of stratiform rain with embedded isolated lightning may occur, and a trend toward prevailing MVFR cigs/vsbys is expected overnight, with lowest confidence at RWI where the occurrence of rain late tonight is less certain. Late tonight toward sunrise, widespread showers and isolated storms are possible, keeping cigs/vsbys mostly MVFR at all terminals with an increase in surface winds from the SW at 10-15 kts with periodic 15-25 kt gusts. Looking beyond 18z Thu, high uncertainty in the details of showers and storms and their impacts lingers through Thu, although fairly high coverage is expected to persist through the mid to late afternoon. A lull in shower/storm chances is expected Thu evening through Fri morning, but the risk of sub-VFR cigs/vsbys with fog is high 07z-15z Fri. Another chance of showers/storms Fri afternoon and evening will be focused across the east, all ahead of a cold front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Fri night through Mon with low rain chances and drier weather as high pressure arrives. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL/Danco LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...Hartfield