Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 152028
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
128 PM PDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over the region this week with showers
and a few thunderstorms each day. Showers and thunderstorms may
produce heavy downpours with accumulating snow or small hail
possible in the higher elevations on Wednesday. This weekend may
feature a break in the action with warmer weather before additional
showers and thunderstorms develop for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

First low will continue to spin over Pershing County today with
showers and thunderstorms across much of the region. The Surprise
Valley in Modoc County, Mono County and Mineral County may be the
only places with little to no activity the rest of today. Another
funnel cloud was reported in Grass Valley south of Winnemucca just
after 11 am this morning. Additional funnel clouds are possible,
though are very unlikely to touchdown in valley locations. As
storms increase in intensity later today, small hail, heavy
downpours and outflow winds to 40 mph are possible.

Second low will move into the Sierra tomorrow morning with rain
and high elevation snow developing by mid morning around the
Tahoe Basin, northern Mono county and far western NV. Showers and
thunderstorms will build up in the afternoon, though cloud cover
may greatly limit surface based heating and instability. The low
does have decent upper forcing with it, which could be enough for
stronger thunderstorms to develop across Pershing, Churchill,
Lyon and Mineral counties in the late afternoon and early evening.
Models are producing some impressive precipitation totals (up to
1 inch) in Pershing and Churchill counties, so there could be some
run off issues and perhaps ponding of water in I-80, US-50 and
US-95.

Low will continue to linger over central Nevada into Friday,
which will keep the threat of showers and a few thunderstorms at
least through the end of the week. Latest models really don`t
dry us out over the weekend, but do think there will be a decrease
in activity with a slightly more stable westerly flow for Sunday.
This should kick up some late afternoon breezes along the Sierra
Front but nothing unusual for the region.

Next spring system should reach northern California on Monday
which is looking like another favorable day for showers and a few
strong thunderstorms. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will persist the next few days with low
pressure about the region.

For the rest of today, strongest activity should remain north of
KTVL-KNFL. Small hail, heavy downpours, gusty outflow winds to 35
kts are the main threats. A couple funnel clouds are not out of
the question, one was reported over Virginia City yesterday and a
second was reported over Grass Valley south of KWMC this morning.

A new low will move into the Sierra Wednesday morning and will
lower freezing levels below 9000 feet, perhaps as low as
7500-8000 feet. Rain and some snow should develop over the Sierra
and far western Nevada by mid morning with MVFR ceilings. Brief
period of IFR conditions is not out of the question if rain
becomes heavy at KTRK and KTVL. A few strong storms are possible
across Pershing, Churchill and Mineral counties after 21z
Wednesday, heavy rain, hail and outflows to 40 kts are possible.
Brong

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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