317
FXUS65 KBYZ 072037
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
237 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday (upper 80s to
  lower 100s). Hottest Wednesday.

- Cold front brings precipitation chances Thursday and Friday;
  along with more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Wednesday Afternoon...

Dry conditions under mostly clear skies will prevail this evening
into tonight as upper level ridging builds into the area. With
this, look for lows to be in the 50s to lower 60s tonight.

Tuesday into Wednesday will be hot and dry with the upper level
ridge in place. On Tuesday, forecast high temperatures are in the
upper 80s and 90s, and on Wendesday, forecast high temperatures
are in the 90s to lower 100s. At this time, the hottest
temperatures both days are forecast along the river valleys of
eastern Montana, especially along the Yellowstone River valley
around and east of Billings. Luckily, this heat will be a dry heat
(minimum relative humidity values in the teens to lower 30s,
driest on Wednesday). With that said, temperatures around 100
degrees can still be dangerous, so those with outdoor plans,
especially those that work outdoors, should be prepared for the
heat and take the necessary precautions to prevent heat related
illness Tuesday and Wednesday.

With the heat, no showers or thunderstorms are forecast over the
plains Tuesday into early Wednesday. A stray shower or weak
thunderstorm may develop over the mountains late Tuesday, but
chances remain low (5 to 15 percent). A pattern change to cooler
temperatures and increased precipitation chances then returns late
Wednesday. See the long-term discussion for more information.
Arends

Wednesday Night through Monday...

A cutoff low currently sitting off the coast of northern
California and is forecast to be ingested into the main flow then
kicked eastwards reaching our region by sunset Wednesday. This
will bring a chance for precip Wednesday evening, especially in
the mountains and foothills, and continue overnight into early
Thursday morning. This feature will be weakening by the time it
gets into MT and thus precip accumulations will be light and most
of the rain showers should exit the CWA before sunrise Thursday
morning.

The shortwave through that kicked the aforementioned system along
will then push through Montana during the day Thursday dragging
along with it a surface cold front. As this system does have
Pacific ties, there should be a good amount of moisture
associated with it. The GFS and ECMWF are both in agreement that
PWAT values just ahead of the cold front should easily exceed 1".
This means that any of the thunderstorms could produce some
locally heavy rainfall. Even through there will be good moisture
associated with these storms, the forecast soundings show a
distinct inverted-V type profile. This will allow for these storms to
potentially produce strong winds as they move through the CWA
Thursday evening.

Behind the weak low, but especially behind the cold front, temps
will be significantly colder compared to that of Wednesday.
Thursday will likely come with high temps still a few degrees
above average but remaining in the mid to upper 80`s. Friday,
however, will bring widespread mid 70`s for highs with some
localized upper 70`s in the river valleys.

The weekend comes with some uncertainty. There is still disagreement
amongst the clusters regarding what happens after the late week
shortwave exits the region. Some ensemble members bring another,
potentially stronger, pacific trough through the region allowing
for continued cooler temps and chances for precip while others
show the opposite. Some members want quickly bring back a large
ridge and have temps rival that of the midweek heat. These
discrepancies will have to be monitored in the coming days. WMR

&&

.AVIATION...

Widely isolated showers remain possible across far southeast
Montana through 22z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the region for the entire period. Winds will be light and
variable across the forecast area with an occasional gust to 15kts
out of the NE. WMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/097 065/099 063/088 054/076 053/090 059/093 061/089
    00/U    00/U    22/T    62/T    00/U    00/U    10/U
LVM 052/093 056/093 054/083 046/076 047/087 053/090 054/090
    00/U    11/U    32/T    52/T    10/U    00/U    10/U
HDN 059/097 062/101 060/088 053/075 050/089 056/093 058/090
    00/U    00/G    21/B    62/T    10/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 059/097 065/101 065/090 055/075 053/087 059/092 061/089
    00/U    00/G    20/B    62/T    10/B    00/U    10/U
4BQ 061/094 067/098 065/088 055/073 052/085 059/092 061/088
    00/U    00/U    20/B    52/T    10/U    10/U    10/U
BHK 053/090 062/098 061/088 052/072 049/083 054/090 057/087
    00/U    00/U    21/B    52/T    11/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 054/094 057/096 058/086 049/073 045/085 054/089 056/088
    10/U    00/U    11/B    53/T    10/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings